Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Rollo]

Anything but springlike here, overcast with a 30 + wind blowing, it maybe mild but I certainly feel the windchill. if GFS is to be believed I may be digging the car out of the snow come next weekend!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SussexSnowman What is this snow you speak of!

[SussexSnowman]

 *Stormforce~beka* Oh that was years ago. Feb 2019. It was one of those 2 day events here today gone tomorrow.

[StingJet]

 Rollo
  yes the snow shovel that I bought for the 2018 BFTE may well yet get a christening 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SussexSnowman  SussexSnowmanDo good to last 2 days down here lolol!!!!

[raz.org.rain]

 Rollo I wouldn't bank on it. Outside of the hype over the model outputs it seems there's a large does of pessimism regarding a potential cold spell.

[Frigid]

Thankfully this mild spell is short-lived. Should be over by Tuesday, and by the looks of it could turn much colder with snow chances. GFS 00z has us in cold for at least a week. SSW signals also strengthening so the potential for a colder March is there. Things are looking much better after weeks of dismal model watching 

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain Some people really seem to believe in the models like they are gospel despite how wrong they have been all winter

[MP-R]

Looks like I might have to consider going abroad again if a cold March lands. Last thing one needs after a mediocre winter.

Last year there was a lot of hype and it ended up being a (admittedly surprising) snowfall followed by weeks of rain.

[Freeze]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

Some people really seem to believe in the models like they are gospel despite how wrong they have been all winter

Tbf, they predicted the northern blocking episode in January, which did happen by the way, and they did a pretty good job in predicting these deep storms before they even existed. So perhaps they haven't been wrong all winter.

[SunnyG]

 Freeze They did not get it right where I am. Was supposed to snow, did not snow, not even close. Couple of storms when we got amber warning came to nothing, one when we did not get amber warning was the worst of the lot. Maybe they got it right where you are....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Is it meant to be winter! Sun was quite hot whilst on walk with my 99 year old Nan, 14 miles to the east of here, now cloudy but not exactly winter

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, SunnyG said:

They did not get it right where I am. Was supposed to snow, did not snow, not even close. Couple of storms when we got amber warning came to nothing, one when we did not get amber warning was the worst of the lot. Maybe they got it right where you are....

But they did happen though, whether it hits a certain location or not. Surely its silly to expect 100% accuracy every square mile of the country?

[raz.org.rain]

After yesterday's ridiculous mild, it looks like temperatures will gradually decline to something more seasonal next week. After that, the models seem to be toying with the idea of switching back to ridiculously mild. That certainly would fit the predictions that a few of us have made (warm end to february, early spring leading onto a warm and dry March).

[LetItSnow!]

Blossom has officially started to bloom in the park behind my house after a very mild couple weeks. Indeed apart from mid-January, most of the winter has been very mild with a very late autumn on top of that, so I imagine wildlife is itching to go. I have a feeling this could be one of those years with a stunted growing season with early warmth and then a cold shock later in the season, like 1998 or something like that. 

[tricol]

I really hope this weather stays north. I'm due to fly in the early morning from Manchester to Dublin on Thursday and just my luck the weather will disrupt things I get majorly stressed with travelling at the best of times, inclement weather will make things much worse.

[LetItSnow!]

Just looked at the MO report for January 2024 and it seems we are having interesting run of extremely sunny January's. IIRC, January 2022 was the sunniest ever, January 2023 the second sunniest and now January 2024 the sixth sunniest. 

[raz.org.rain]

@CryoraptorA303 you still thinking it could turn out to be a more or less average to mild February and March? Intuition tells me yes but there's too much ramping up of potential northern blocking to gage it.

[Frigid]

2 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

After that, the models seem to be toying with the idea of switching back to ridiculously mild. That certainly would fit the predictions that a few of us have made (warm end to february, early spring leading onto a warm and dry March).

Not sure about that, the signal is for blocking to become more prevalent as the month goes on. I'm not seeing any evidence for 'ridiculously mild' weather to follow. Ens are split between mild and cold after mid month. Quite a strong signal for -AO to mid month and the GFS are keen to prolong the cold. EC46, Exeter and BBC Update also firm on cold to continue.. Of course it could all be wrong as seen many times but it shouldn't be ignored. 

[raz.org.rain]

 

[summer blizzard]

 raz.org.rain

I'd not rule out warmth in early March. The current forecast spell is driven by the tropics supporting blocking to the north and east but as yet the mean does not support the SSW fully which means the impact in late Feb/early March is not clear cut as yet though trending in the right direction. We saw in Jan how things can turn around. 

Do I suspect my own view of Feb has gone too high though, yes, probably.

[Snowyowl9]

I n between January 1st 1982 and January 2007 we had just 2 events when we had 1 foot of level snow..25 years..

Inbetween February 1st 2007 and December 20th 2017 we had 4 events when we had 1 foot of snow..in just 10 years..

Whats wrong with that picture.. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Snowyowl9 Increasing air moisture content and average precipitation in an area with a lot of hills Average temps also speak a lot louder than individual events.

 Frigid We didn't see any evidence for 19.9°C in January either, and we also didn't see evidence for the ridiculously mild December, yet it still happened and all potential cold spells have fallen flat. Either the models aren't gauging what's going on in reality or wishcasters are selecting the two or three runs that support their biases. I'm a coldie, mind you, and I'd love a "the pigs fly home from Siberia" run to verify, but it never does.

 raz.org.rain  summer blizzard Chances are we'll just see persistently above average temps for the next ever, occasionally interrupted by a few coldish nights. Over the last couple of winters we seem to have just defaulted to low-mid teens and actively needed a colder pattern to see anything else. I know the "January 2010", "December 2010", "February 2012" and "winter 2012/13" cards will keep being played for eternity, but those were during the 2007-2012 aberration which is a period comparable to the 60s in terms of much lower temps than the surrounding years. Going off that we will not see a similar period materialising for another 50 years yet, so any hope of winters comparable to even those frankly ever again for the lifetimes of anyone on this site are very low. The way I see it, the best we can hope for in the present day is for a week of cold temps like December 2022 at best before the low-mid teens, dullness and rain return. By the 2040s even that will be a hard ask.

[SunnyG]

 Freeze  London is not exactly a tiny corner of the country but sure have it your way

Edited February 4 by SunnyG

[CryoraptorA303]

 LetItSnow! I saw buttercups out the other day, by far the earliest I've ever seen them. Daffodils will already be dying off by the end of February at this rate. Won't be long until we start seeing the first buds now, I think some trees already have them here. Definitely seeing a 2022-esque early spring with the summer period in full swing by May. I need not mention the winter record bad omen. Only a month in and its looking like whatever happens this year will be one for the record books. Wouldn't be surprised at 2024 beating 2022 as our warmest year tbh, the background global temps are so high atm and will be all year that we'd need persistent mild/cold signals lasting months at a time like July 2023 to stop 2022's record being surpassed. Reminder that 2023 is our second warmest year on record and had two hottest months on record without having any massive temperature spikes like 2022 or previous hottest years. Anything short of another 2023 is guarenteed to be the warmest year we've ever seen in all likelihood. Any massive spikes or record hot/long heatwaves that do happen will just make the margin more idiotic.

Also worth pointing out that the new January record broke the old one by 1.6°C which correct me if I'm wrong is the highest margin we've ever seen, joint with July 19th 2022 with the 40.3°C all-time.

Edited February 4 by CryoraptorA303