Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Jackski4]

What are the chances of Fridays PPN being further south than forecast and bringing more snow?

[cheshire snow]

For the life of me I have no idea why the southern extent of the warning has been removed makes no sense after watching the Forecast just now.looking good for the region to see snow on Thursday,also it showed the event staying as snow even in southern parts,before temperatures rise and the rapid thaw sets in.

@Thunder Snowyes will see snow as the LP pivots and heads west(don’t forget it’s an Easterly flow)

@Jackski4Friday will be rain unfortunately milder air pushing back up.a slow process,area further north and with altitude probably see more snow on Friday.

[A Face like Thunder]

 Jackski4 I hope not. I am due to pick up my new car on Friday morning and then take Mrs FLT to an important appointment. I'm already cacking myself about Thursday and could do without any more stress. 

Forecast after BBC News at One suggests snow on Thursday will be focused more on the north of the region, with some snow quickly turning to rain in the south. So Carlisle may yet get some of the white stuff.    

[damianslaw]

A much chillier feel to things today despite higher level cloud. A cold night ahead with a frost expected.

[WillinGlossop]

Temperature dropping throughout today… was 10/11c first thing now 5c… very wet day here… hopefully back of this front soon

[Dan B]

7ºC here today and bloody horrible/blustery/heavy rain this morning...

 

It's calmed off though now and gone very still...

 

Calm before the storm...?

[Day 10]

ICON & ARPEGE Thurs morning, slow progress.

[Day 10]

Then there's the second batch Thurs into Fri, I wonder if that could upgrade to all snow too? It's slowly improving

[The Northern Ramper]

It’s Slipping south, I’m not venturing into that thread.

[Scuba steve]

I’ve noticed the return of the snow icons though I can’t see much falling here if anything 

[Cheese Rice]

Seems to be a correction south on the latest runs. What that means for Manchester I'm not sure as I'm not familiar with the snow shield here. If I was to be anywhere right now it would be high ground Sheffield as the sweet spot. 

[Day 10]

 The Northern Ramper

I thought it had earlier but maybe it is just slowing down that's all.

GFS

[Winter Hill]

 Dark Horse

The Manchester shield is very odd. 
think it’s to do with wind direction and the Welsh mountains.  I’ve seen it lash down here and looking South-East towards Manchester, you can very clearly see it looking Brighter in that direction. You can see the clouds don’t look as grey and heavy.. 

Odd. 

[severe snowstorm]

 The Northern Ramper There is of course  much joy with the shift South in the mad thread, but of course it's still 2 days away and yet to happen yet, so joy could turn to despair and vice versa. This is still not fully resolved and there could be further adjustments North or South. 

[Dark Horse]

 The Northern Ramper not surprising really with these features almost always correct south closer to the time. I suppose it'll save on the disappointment, rather have no chance of snow than a shield rubbing my nose in it "look what you could've had". 

Edited February 6 by Dark Horse

[severe snowstorm]

 Day 10 still looks ok to me  

Could still change further of course.

[Spah1]

Chorley might have a snow shield from Belmont and Anglezarke in a straight easterly.

Someone may be able to confirm?

[Day 10]

UKMO

More a wintry mix.

[Spah1]

And there we go. 

The whole of the NW in the shield. 

[severe snowstorm]

 Dark Horse I experienced the pain of that snow shield for several years, the most horrendous event being March 2013.

The snow accumulations don't look particularly amazing away from high ground, even if it does come off, so you wouldn't be missing much.

[Day 10]

Second batch for the north of our region.

[Winter Hill]

 Spah1

I don’t think so.. maybe Winter Hill and surrounding Hills would take some humph out of any showers coming from the East. 
 

the same happens here in a direct North Westerly, the showers seem to break up. 
another mystery. 

[Jackski4]

 Day 10 that’s what I asked earlier mate, it seems to keep trending south and being slower moving. Could be good?

[Day 10]

The Mod Thread has just become the pointless thread! What a joke!

[Hoghtonwhite]

Sorry but being honest here, I just can't imagine a system coming up from the south producing settling snow for low lying areas of our region. And it may not even reach us in the first place. 

I'd be much more confident if it was coming in from the north west like in January. Can't remember the last time a system like this coming Thursday produced the goods for our region. 

GFS and ECM seem adamant that it will. We can only wait and see this one. I think most of us will have to rely on evaporate cooling.