Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[Snowy L]

We need it further east more than anything, stalling just sweeps the milder air in regardless of south/north corrections.

[Midlander]

In ARPEGE we trust!  

[MattStoke]

 sheikhy Indeed.

MO are just wrong to remove the warning here. Not for the first time. Could maybe be that there's a slight warm sector shown just to the west of me but I've seen that many times on modelling before and its meant rain over the Cheshire plain but not here. 

[Snowy L]

Every single cold spell the last couple of years, the Atlantic has fired up or switched off at the worst possible time. This one if we just had a bit more energy to move it along before it draws southerlies in, it could have been a historic snowfall. Instead we are hoping for a cm or 2 in a 6 hour window.

[sheikhy]

Goodness gracious arpege all snow event!!!!!

[AltonMatthew]

 sheikhy Can you share the output?

[MattStoke]

 AltonMatthew

[sheikhy]

 AltonMatthew just been posted above by matt!!!!the snowline all the way down to the m4!!!big question is is the arpege run at higher resolution compared to gfs at 48 hours?!!!!

[Midlander]

ARPEGE Ensembles trickling out now. Looks as though the colder 850's average are further south, prior to the precip 

[AltonMatthew]

If anything at least its an interesting chase for some potential on Thursday  

Current MetO forecast for my location:

 

Edit: I dont actually live in the Theme Park though  

Edited February 6 by AltonMatthew

[Midlander]

Can see the difference more starkly at 1PM Thursday

 

Edited February 6 by Midlander

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke BANK!!! I hope that happens

[AltonMatthew]

 Midlander It actually has similarities between Boxing Day 2014 in terms of the will it or wont it, we started with heavy rain that day and everyone doubting any snow and then it switched and we ended up snowed in! 

[sheikhy]

 Midlander wow and with fresh data in and closer to the actual event surely arpege shall not be too far off?!!

[Midlander]

 AltonMatthew Yes, although I vaguely remember that

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye that day snowed here good covering

[MattStoke]

UKMO 6z looks crud according to the chart posted in the Mod thread 

[weirpig]

Only goes to out to 51h  but the arome dosent look too bad also  with snow initially at least getting to southern areas 

[MattStoke]

 weirpig Agreeing with the Arpege. Is this the French saying sorry stealing these lows earlier in the winter?

[Snowshine]

Model outputs still offering hope for those in the north despite the removal of the warning, otherwise I wouldn't waste my energy on this.

[Shezale coventry]

such a shame for us in the central midlands looks like we will have a sleet followed by cold rain.

midlands used to be a good spot for snow over the years 1981 82 85 86 87 91 96 since then the best we have had is 2017 when 12cms fell in december. even the great 2010 cold spell here in coventry we missed out on all the fun!

[Eskimo]

Any significant snowfall will rely on evaporative cooling. Most models drag the dew point down from positive values to near freezing as the band moves across - the heavier the precipitation the more this will have an impact on conditions at the surface and the longer we all see snowfall. 

Most models lower these dew points to near favorable conditions but many are just on the wrong side of the border. 

Edited February 6 by Eskimo

[TheOgre]

The trouble with this potential event is that it will quickly turn to slush and melt on Thursday night or Friday when the mild air returns. It kind of reminds me of a snowfall on the back of a 12ish C day in January 2021.

[marksp]

Still just in the warning zone.

 

will pop up to daughters house, its at 295mts

[marksp]

also local pub I frequent is at 180mtrs , hahah, hope for some good snowy scenes