Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[MattStoke]

GFS a touch further south too, so far....

[GokouD]

 MattStoke watch it all go too far south for us now! 

[MKN]

 MattStoke yea a definite small shift south on the gfs, 15/20 miles so not as much as arpege but if it's something that can trend that way over next 2/3 runs the midlands could end up being the prime spot come Thursday. 

[MattStoke]

Zoomed out view of GFS. 12z vs 6z.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Further south on 12Z yes, opposite to last time for 17th Jan, were wanting it further north

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still poor on BBC, not a flake being shown for Kings Bromley, temps from 5 to 2, maybe trending right way, but seems to be going off yesterday's EC

[Eskimo]

Big difference actually when it comes to the dew points - degree or so down on the last run for the same time. A shift of about 30-40 miles southward which indicates the cold is undercutting a bit more than originally forecast. 

Incredible thermal gradient though. 10-12C along the south coast 0-2C across the Midlands. Spring to Winter in about 150 miles. 



T2 Temps 

Edited February 6 by Eskimo

[Eskimo]

Won't stop what's coming towards us on Friday though which will be a horrid cold and damp sort of day unfortunately. 

[sheikhy]

If ecm goes further south i dont see how it shall change much from there on!!midlands lookin primed!!🌨🌨

[MKN]

 Eskimo last time we had a decent amount of snow I got out at 830/9am to make sure i could take dog out and get some decent pics before it started to melt and become horrible. Think this is about the best we can hope for more often that not these days. The mild weather saves on the bills also so we don't need it staying around for to long. 

[CoventryWeather]

Personally want more shifting south and so Friday is more of the same as Thursday. 

Never like 1 day snow events, especially those right before a weekend. 

But it's nice to see shifts south - hopefully it can continue that way so the above happens.. not solved yet. 

[GokouD]

 Eskimo At this point in the winter I'll settle for a decent snow day, even if it's gone the next day. Beggars can't be choosers. Also my office want me to go in on Thursday, it would be nice to have an excuse not to!

Edited February 6 by GokouD

[Midlander]

 GokouD Exactly, can't be too picky when it comes to snowfall!

[Eskimo]

As a side note - the ARPEGE has corrected south by nearly 100 miles between yesterdays 18z and today's 12z. 

[Snowy L]

Looks like Met Office will have to redo their warnings, definite shift to a lot of the midlands getting a period of settling snow. Now if only some extra energy can appear to move the low along.

[Fozfoster]

I just wish it would stop raining….. off to the cov game in a bit…..

[Sparkiee storm]

Got a feeling it might be a touch like last March snow event which turned to rain, although it looks like this time there might be more snow than that event before it turns milder, unless of course it keeps trending further and further south with each run from now on which would keep us colder and snowier for longer but that's a big ask. Should be not far off the mark now being so close to the event but a 50 mile shift North or South still cant be ruled out, even 12 hours prior to it happening. Interesting day or 2 to come before hopefully snowy Nirvana.

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke As we say here in Leicester... "OOHYA BEAUTEH!"

[chris pawsey]

 Fozfoster Wish i was going, although it'll be a wet night! CWR in the kitchen for me

[Fozfoster]

 chris pawsey block 21 row LL nice and dry there, wet walk to the ground tho

[Shezale coventry]

hmmmm

[andy_leics22]

 Shezale coventry Get in!! What chart is that?

[CoventryWeather]

 andy_leics22 Arpege

Has that moved south again? It was a fair way south on the 6z. 

Edited February 6 by CoventryWeather

[Shezale coventry]

 andy_leics22 its the arpege. 

[MattStoke]

I’ve found the Harmonie model decent for predicting snow the past couple of winters.