Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[MattStoke]

Amber warning doesn't surprise me. Some pretty big totals just to the north and east of Stoke on the models.

[Snowshine]

Based on what I've seen in the MOD thread, it's well and truly time for this pathetic excuse of a winter to do one. For those getting snow tomorrow, make the most of it!

[chris pawsey]

I'm about 30 miles south of the warning! What are the chances of a sudden shift south of the cold air tomorrow morning? I'm clutching at straws here!

[sheikhy]

 stripeyfox not really buddy!!!models have gone the wrong way since 18z!!!expecting a horrible sleety day tomorrow!!!

[Eye to the sky]

Met Office has me down for 10 hours of heavy snow tomorrow.I’m just south of the Peak District.Interesting times ahead.

[MattStoke]

Shame to see the Arpege backtrack inline with the other models.

[Midlander]

I won't throw in the towel (just yet) for this winter season until the Met Office change their long-range forecasts. 

If they do, it would be all the more disappointing given the seasonal model forecasts and the apparent optimism (especially earlier on in the winter) of usually conservative members in the MAD thread about favourable background signals.

Edited February 7 by Midlander

[sheikhy]

 MattStoke massive fail for the model at just 36 hours out!!meant to be a higher resolution model but what is the point if its getting things that badly wrong at a ridiculously short time frame!!!!one to keep in mind for future events similar to this one!!

[MattStoke]

 sheikhy UKV 6z might brighten your day.

[chris pawsey]

 MattStoke Oooo a shift south and east! Puts me in the picture... Just!

[andy_leics22]

 sheikhy The GFS had this nailed down on Monday when the UKMO was going against it. Now the other models have backtracked to what the GFS was originallly showing then.

 

Edit: Well, the UKV looks good but I don't buy it. I guess I can't write it off until tomorrow comes, but i'm not getting my hopes up.

Edited February 7 by andy_leics22

[MKN]

 MattStoke its the hope that kills us And there is always one model that seems to enjoy giving us that hope.

Personally I think other than high ground and the north of our region most of us are looking at transient period of snow. Between 6 and 10am.

Temporary accumulations possible 1-5cms but quickly washed away by evening. For those a touch further North and on higher ground perhaps 10-15cms. Hills around Buxton I'd imagine 20-30cms. 

[MattStoke]

 MKN Around 5cm here is my guess. Higher parts of Stoke maybe 5-10cm.

[MKN]

 andy_leics22 I said 4/5 days ago in the model output discussion that the gfs in my experience and for our area at least seems to be the one of the main models to get things right more often than not when it comes to these marginal events.

[stripeyfox]

we're still in the game. Most likely won't amount to much but there's a chance. Will be nice to at least see some snow falling.

 

 

[Snowyowl9]

 I remember Atlantic 252

Overall its similar but this one has a better sharper angle stronger undercut to that weaker easterly flow then..

This looks more intense..

[sheikhy]

 MattStoke it does mate!!!you got a chart for 9am as well?!!ecm 06z looks a bit more favourable aswell i think?!!!

[AltonMatthew]

Met office has only improved the forecast.in the last hour turning the.evening rain to sleet tomorrow. 

 

Otherwise wall to wall heavy snow for most of the day. Will see if it actually happens of course. 

[MattStoke]

Sleet, be gone!

[chris pawsey]

 MattStoke Snow / sleet be gone! 

[GokouD]

Met office is mostly snow for me now, the BBC app is still steadfastly saying sleet all day though. It says that for Stoke too though, where the snow is more nailed on, so hopefully it's just wrong.

[MattStoke]

 GokouD BBC app almost always shows sleet when Stoke gets snow.

[nobble]

Can we get that amber warning more south

[andy_leics22]

The UKMO actually has it down to start as rain here and then turn to snow around lunchtime, then back to rain

[Mcconnor8]

 sheikhy The warm front looks quite a bit further north on the UKV 12z than the 06z judging by these temperatures on Thursday morning I think.