Moans, ramps and banter

[raz.org.rain]

 LetItSnow! 2019 was a weird summer, it gets remembered as a dull and disappointing summer because of how humid and overcast it was, but it was largely very warm to hot. I'm sure I remember some unusually warm "hairdryer" type winds that summer.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 danm Ah alas. I was rearranging some stuff in the bathroom and then took a shower so may have well been during that period

[raz.org.rain]

Oh wow, just been outside and definitely feeling the high minima. It's unusually mild for this time of night in early April.

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain They forget that there's different levels of Mediterraneanism. Of course no one is suggesting we will seriously see any Csa with average temps in the low-30s and high-20s at coastal locations with a breeze in our lifetimes, what's being suggested is a Csb which is not quite a subtropical climate, but has the seasonal rainfall pattern of those further south.

The Csb areas of northwestern Spain that you mention are also not completely bone dry in summer (at least most of the time), they do see the odd storm or two, they just need one month out of April-October to fall below 30mm and the wettest month to be at least three times wetter, so 90mm at the absolute borderline classification. With the kind of rainfall we've seen this winter and into March, if we do get one of the summer months below 30mm in the SE quadrant, assuming it has also been warm enough to have an mean temperature above 18°C in the target area, which is exceptionally likely, then the SE quadrant of the UK will have experienced a Csb year.

It doesn't seem so far off now, does it?

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain It has been starting to feel really mild the last couple of nights, more like your average late July or early August night at the equivalent level of darkness.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 CryoraptorA303 Well I'm currently in Wanstead, my family is a mix of living in Epping, Chigwell and Upminster...so I generally just collectivise myself as "living in East London / Essex" haha, because realistically I'm kind of both. 

Wanstead is certainly part of London in terms of postcode, it just doesn't always feel as such A) because it's effectively its own 'village" and B) proximity to Chigwell and Epping (where I spend a lot of time with family), haha.

I suppose it's the debate between borough catchment vs "vibe" of an area, and what's more important...a lot of the people who live in the far reaches of the outer London boroughs don't feel like they're "Londoners" despite being in a London borough on paper.

[danm]

 raz.org.rain 2019 summer had some cracking weather. Derided by too many. 

2 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Well I'm currently in Wanstead, my family is a mix of living in Epping, Chigwell and Upminster...so I generally just collectivise myself as "living in East London / Essex" haha, because realistically I'm kind of both. 

Wanstead is certainly part of London in terms of postcode, it just doesn't always feel as such A) because it's effectively its own 'village" and B) proximity to Chigwell and Epping (where I spend a lot of time with family), haha.

I suppose it's the debate between borough catchment vs "vibe" of an area, and what's more important...a lot of the people who live in the far reaches of the outer London boroughs don't feel like they're "Londoners" despite being in a London borough on paper.

Ah I went to school in Chigwell, grew up in Ilford and now live in Chingford. We’re from the same part of the world - E/NE London & Essex. 

Chigwell and Epping definitely are both places that are technically Essex. 

[CryoraptorA303]

Incredibly the urban area of Paris is largely over 15°C at 23:17 local time. Perhaps not a big deal in early August after a warm day or two, but in early April?

Closer to home, much of the UK south of Manchester and west of Lincolnshire is sitting at 11-13°C, very warm for early April. We would expect these sort of low daily variation, high nighttime temps in October or even later in September.

As there is high cloud cover and the wind is blowing, I doubt we will see temps decline much overnight. Prepare for a very mild, summer-like night.

Reminds me of Christmas Eve last year when Exeter and East Malling lowed at 12.4°C, which if not for the freakish December 2015 would've surely been a record high minimum for December.

The current April record high minimum is really not much higher than the winter months amazingly, at 15.9°C. I don't think we will beat that now as it is early April and this is very much a winter method of setting mild records, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get a >15°C minimum tomorrow and what would undoubtedly be the record if it wasn't for the psychotic 2018 heat spike.

[CryoraptorA303]

Well, I'm feeling a bit trolled right now..

[CryoraptorA303]

 In Absence of True Seasons That is fair enough then lol.

The whole outer East London/southwest Essex area is a unique place in the world with it's own identity. It's a bit of both without committing to being either or

16 minutes ago, danm said:

Ah I went to school in Chigwell, grew up in Ilford and now live in Chingford. We’re from the same part of the world - E/NE London & Essex. 

Chigwell and Epping definitely are both places that are technically Essex.

I was boring I was, went to (primary) school in Hainault and everyone I knew was in Hainault, well almost I did go swimming in Loughton with my dad on Sundays. I never really noticed much of a difference then although Loughton felt a bit more out in the country, which I suppose isn't inaccurate although I'd hardly call it a country town. Epping and Theydon Bois when I've been to them just feel like somewhat more out in the country Hainaults to me.

[LetItSnow!]

 CryoraptorA303 Considering you'd expect an April night to hover around 3-5C in some places it's the anomaly equivalent of a tropical night in July.

Can't help but feel that the extreme mildness in an odd way is making things feel less spring-like now. Local blossom and daffodils are already mostly gone and we're in a weird gray zone where the spring flowers seem to be passing their best but the trees haven't come out yet, which combined with static mild temperatures and low sunshine levels and gusty winds is making it feel like autumn. At least in a cold spring, even though growth is delayed, it comes out gradually and you can get a pretty late bloom. Bear in mind I don't live in the countryside so it may look different there, but it's very nature-y locally with a wild array of trees and flowers in a park behind my house - and I can say that it just feels so, so dull. No spring joy, just constant November - and it doesn't help with the freaky synoptics going on at the moment. It would be nice to have a UK/Scandi orientated high with chilly nights but warm days but instead it's just extreme...mildness. Bland. It didn't bother me so much in the winter or even last summer (and also July and August last year were unexceptional for temperature unlike currently) but it all feels malevolently grey at the moment. Got a feeling this will come to typify 2024 as a whole but things could change.

It certainly feels a LOT different to where we were at this point in spring in 2022 which had been very sunny so it felt pleasant and cheery. A lot of 2022's weather (apart from the scary heatwave) was very happiness inducing and I imagine 1995 must have felt that way, but yeah... I'd much rather the opposite right now and have a raging NE wind with exceptionally low temperatures because at least there'd be some snow and some novelty. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 LetItSnow! I totally agree with this sentiment, it's definitely starting to get better but there's still a long way to go.

5 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Got a feeling this will come to typify 2024 as a whole but things could change.

Well, there are now hopes of a change on the way, of course don't get your hopes up but surely the odds must be stacked against this continuing any further?

[baddie]

 LetItSnow! I fancy an Easterly bringing frosty nights and mild, sunny days. Hoping for a lengthy spell of that around the 20th onwards

I can see a warm spell on the cards next weekend. Hoping dry and sunny too

Edited April 4 by baddie

[*Stormforce~beka*]

12.8c here ... Bonkers!

[Frigid]

These mild minima aren't that unusual, it happens almost every winter. Can recall the end of March 2017 having very mild mins, in which it set a record. 

[HurricaneSteve]

mild night, alright, also raining, winds also gusting up close to gale force.

Reminds me of the remnants of a tropical storm in late summer

[Sun Chaser]

 CryoraptorA303 I would be surprised if we had another hot September. However we are most definitely due a dry August and second half of the year as a whole - I'd go for drier than avg and warmer than avg September, notably dry and sunny October, and a drier than avg and cool November, followed by the driest December since 2016, also fairly cold - possibly more so than 2017 but not to the extent of 2022.

[Nick L]

I think this current spell of weather demonstrates perfectly that having lighter evenings means bugger all if the weather is dreadful. Proponents of year-round BST take note!

Off to Fuerteventura next week, cannot wait to escape the gloom.

[CryoraptorA303]

 Sun Chaser I of course think this more moderate scenario is more likely, however it wouldn't surprise me if we're on the other side of the extreme by the second half of the year with the autumn months ending up abnormally dry and spring-like.

The last notably dry autumn was 2016, so on the balance of everything, and the fact that these post-Nino years tend to be quite backended with the hottest and driest weather of the year, and also that the laws of physics state with this level of cyclogenesis the Atlantic has to eventually cool down and this will likely end up happening after El Nino disappears from mid-year, it seems like autumn 2024 has the best chance of any to be notably dry.

This is normally how something like April 2011 happens: Have a post-Nino year go increasingly dry from July or August, have a dry winter and then the La Nina frontending kicks in and a very warm, dry spring follows. This generally ends up collapsing by the end of May though, as far as I know there is no year that had a notably hot April like this that went on to see a hot summer. 1893 might be one of the only ones that saw a notably dry and warm summer after this sort of April.

[Buzzard]

 JakeWorces Sorry a bit late replying, but I hear your annoyance and despair with the weather (I’m a runner too).

if you can, just raise a middle finger to the weather, mutter a loud ‘F**k You’ to it and crack on regardless. 
 

Im done with wasting any more energy on this country’s weather

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Proponents of year-round BST take note!

The US trialled this back in the 70s and it was a disaster.

If daylight saving is ever abolished, which it is likely to be in most countries in the next 10-15 years as it becomes less and less popular, we will turn our clocks back in October to the correct timezone and not put them forward the next March.

The days in summer are so long that an hour being lost from the evening will be barely felt at all and a complete irrelevance. People like me will benefit from it by summer days not lasting abnormally long into the evening so I can keep a remotely normal sleep schedule in the summer. The switch to BST has already seriously disrupted my circadian rhythm.

In the age of artificial lighting, there is really no excuse for daylight saving, especially when the day is already so long at our latitude in summer.

Edited April 5 by CryoraptorA303

[Alderc 2.0]

 CryoraptorA303 completely disagree, it will be massively noticed in the evening and hugely shortens the period of available light for those who works normal hours. Also what’s the point of it getting light at 3am when everyone is asleep……..personally double BST would be better, already too much daylight before folk are up.

[CryoraptorA303]

 Frigid The March daily minimum record was set in 1990, not 2017.

I'd argue that it's still quite absurd to be seeing 11-12°C overnight in early April, this is close to the average daily maximum for the south. It happens sometimes in autumn due to the inertia vs low sunlight but in April? This is just weird honestly. If we see such minima in April then it should be coming from very warm spells.

Starling's Roost has St James's Park at 10.1°C daily minimum for yesterday, well technically still today as it's measured by 0900-0900, however London is currently at 12-13°C and this can't be from sunlight, so this will have either been early in the meterological day yesterday or random, brief drops in temp as cloud cover temporarily let up.

While 0900-0900 is better than 0000-0000, it can still occasionally be prone to errors like this and I'd suggest something more like 1800-1800 to measure meterological days; this timeframe would to me seem to better capture the actual temperature variation of the day than 0900-0900. Having said that, in summer this will capture very high maxima from the previous day, so 2000-2000 might be better.

[Buzzard]

 danm I’d just call it London if it has a tube station . 
 

Was impressed with Upminster, was there for my kid’s athletics meeting so had a run around the place. Lots of big houses etc. 

[Alderc 2.0]

While the outlook is certainly less bad models still have over an inch of rain falling here. Really need a good month of almost no rain walking out with the dog the last few days and there’s water in places I’ve never seen before.

Have to say I’m getting vibes that a long dry sunny spell will come along in a similar fashion to last year but only to collapse to during summer again