Moans, ramps and banter

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

One thing moving forward that is certain. We will see heat records broken almost every year. We've already seen a heat record in Jan (19.9C), Feb come within 0.1C of the record CET, and numerous date records set since, including yesterday's highest Min CET.

It’s quite normal to break daily records in an individual year they’re not particularly noteworthy well nothing compared to monthly record or all-time. We can’t forget we are seeing influence of strong El Niño, this increased global heating accelerates the number of warm records. 2025 is expected to be cooler than 2023 and 2024, so whilst UK might not see less records on balance it should evidently around Earth there will be less but of course still well outweighing cold.

Edited April 7 by Daniel*

[danm]

 Daniel* Yep February has become a lot wetter, but then March, April, May and June have all become drier relative to the 1961-1990 period. 

March is 18% drier, April 5% drier, May is 9% drier, June 7.2% drier. 

In fact, looking back at the records, our Autumns and Winters have become a fair bit wetter, our March to June period has become drier and our July to September period looks largely flat. September is a little drier, July and August very slightly wetter. 

Overall average rainfall totals for Heathrow between 1961-1990 was 596.58mm per year, up to 614.98mm between 1991-2020, so a 3% increase overall. 

Average sunshine totals for Heathrow between 1961-1990 was 1,519.44 hrs per year, up to 1,674.81 hrs between 1991-2020, a 10% increase.

Edited April 8 by danm

[danm]

Tomorrow looks downright awful, but then there is hope for later this week:

[Arch Stanton]

 danm

Very useful to see the stats broken down like this - thanks.

As far as wetter months and seasons are concerned, all that has gone on before cannot be used as an indicator for what is to come, especially when we've had record SST's in the N Atlantic that are +4c higher than normal. This is unprecedented and so I think we've essentially entered a new phase with our climate. Nobody 100% knows what these extreme increases will bring us, although, unfortunately, I wouldn't be surprised if the last 8-9 months of UK wet becomes the norm.

[danm]

 Arch Stanton yes true regarding current very high SST's. I also think the issue we've had over the last 18 months is continually being stuck on the wrong side of the jet stream. Whereas in 2018 and 2022 we had prolonged spells of being stuck south of the jet stream, which gave us lengthy dry and hot weather, apart from a few months the last 18 months has seen us stuck underneath the jet or just to the north of it. 

if we synoptically get another displacement north of the jet, as we had a couple of years ago, there is nothing to suggest we won't get into another prolonged dry spell. 

I suppose what is true is that with very high SST's, the wet spells we do get will be more intense. 

Edited April 8 by danm

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I had sun this morning! Extremely rare! Gone now though as we can't do a full day of sun here ...

[Snowshine]

Really hope this is the last week of this relentless gloom, days like today just suck.

[danm]

Been a decent day here with sunny spells. 15c at the mo.

[CryoraptorA303]

 danm Perhaps we can still get an April 2009 out of this? That is more or less my perfect April: Dry, sunny and temps largely in the mid-high teens with the odd 20°C once or twice a week.

Very pleasant day here so far, the trees will be leafing very soon if the rest of the week is like this. Unfortunately I can't enjoy it as I've injured my shoulder and it's ing painful

 Arch Stanton I mostly agree, as I said yesterday (albeit drunkenly as I was using alcohol as a painkiller) our climate has collapsed and is in a state of flux. When the jet stream is south we'll see high rainfall, when it's north we'll see abnormally hot and dry weather. Eventually once temperatures have stabilised one or the other will establish, although I still think it's quite likely we'll see some form of Csb on the south coast and in parts of Kent, Surrey and most of London if the Hadley cell does keep expanding as predicted, which would mean more summer droughts and more autumn/winter washouts. Overall I'd expect that the total number of rainfall days from October-March will actually start to decline at some point with light drizzle and showers in the wet season becoming virtually extinct and restricted to the dry season, however average precipitation will keep rising as storm systems become more and more intense, which will lead to flash flooding like we've seen over this winter and other recents like 2013/14 become relatively normal, especially if the dry season does become considerably drier.

Also worth pointing out that even if overall annual precipitation is rising, summer droughts will get worse and worse as temperatures increase. If by 2050 London and the surrounding areas are averaging at 26-27°C daily max, and daily minima are averaging on the other side of 15°C, then the ground will dry out significantly faster from April to September than it has done in the past, making droughts far more likely, especially if summer is backended and the hottest and driest conditions hit in August. This will make seasonal flash flooding in turn even worse as the intense storms start moving in from September and dumping several or tens of mm at a time on the dried out ground.

 danm Much the same here, currently 15.6°C at Frittenden (East Malling is offline for some reason).

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Largely warm, very spring like day today (this far, showers coming later!) in my area. 

Went for a walk during lunch to the park with my friend and his dog, everything looking very different to even just a week or so ago - grass is much more vibrant, flowers popping up everywhere, trees starting to properly bloom. It's as if it was all a bit dormant due to the relentless rain and cloud but now we are having some warmer, sunnier days, things are springing to life.

[raz.org.rain]

Looks like a real rollercoaster ride for this week. Chillier northerlies tomorrow that give way to southerlies by midweek, which then get pushed by more northerly influence by the weekend, which again gets pushed out by a southerly influence into next week.

[Bristawl Si]

 raz.org.rain typical April in the UK really.

I found a weather website the other day showing historical summaries of April over last 120 years or so.

It's really stark how varied Aprils can be, either the 30 days in any one year OR by looking at Aprils over many years.

Yeah, really varied, weatherwise and it seems forever so. In reality, there's been v little change to our climate here, in the UK. Perception can be deception.

[AWD]

I’ve decided to do an amateur forecast for 2024.  Here it is below;

I will evaluate how successful it is come December.

Edited April 8 by AWD

[CryoraptorA303]

15 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

In reality, there's been v little change to our climate here, in the UK. Perception can be deception

Eh, I'd say there's been more than "very little" change. Both the hot and wet extremes have become substantially more so and the cold extremes have rapidly declined.

 AWD If every single month of this year is wet then that must be some sort of record, probably beating 1872 as the wettest year even if none of the months are individually the wettest on record.

[Arch Stanton]

 In Absence of True Seasons

I’ve noticed all of that as well, things are a lot lusher now we’ve had some warmth at last.
 

Weather wise I’m still feel short changed about this current lull in the weather, yes it’s stopped raining but any sunshine is intermittent and right now the sky is 8 Oktas. It’s been a long time since we’ve had unbroken sunshine..

[danm]

All those showers dried up before they reached here so it’s been a totally bone dry day with lots of sunny spells. A short while ago:

It then clouded over but stayed dry, now back to a few sunny breaks again. A much better day than forecast. 17c the high. 

[ANYWEATHER]

4 hours ago, Arch Stanton said:

This is unprecedented

Unprecedented, nothing is that when it comes to Planet Earth, third rock from the sun! The only thing that you could call unprecedented is the vast population of humans living on this rock, apart from that there is nothing new under the sun….

[raz.org.rain]

Early days but... hints of a Scandi high in the GFS 6z?

 

[Bristawl Si]

 CryoraptorA303 havent noticed that myself. Various periods throughout my 60+ years have seen long wet spells and long dry spells.

[danm]

 raz.org.rain hmmm that would be a recipe for what we had in April/early May last year with clag in eastern Britain, sunniest in the west. From a IMBY perspective i'd prefer a SE to E flow to avoid that.

[Arch Stanton]

 ANYWEATHER

I'm looking at SSTs that are +4c above average as being unprecedented since records began. There was a time recently when a SST anomaly of +1 or +2c would have sounded extreme, so that needs to be put into perspective.

I don't dispute what you say when you look at the bigger picture over thousands & millions of years either. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Bristawl Si I suppose if you haven't noticed it, it's not happening then. What did you say earlier? Perception can be deception?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm cooooold!!!

[raz.org.rain]

 danm scandi highs can be good for warmth if they occur in June I think? Hopefully the flip flopping in the signals delivers something good sooner rather than later.

 

The Cheshire gap always shows up pretty nicely in these temperature gradient maps 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 AWD Is your name Dave? ...