Moans, ramps and banter

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Edited April 23 by In Absence of True Seasons

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Another good one.

Got to laugh because otherwise we will cry.

[Josh Rubio]

Currently modelled for midnight Sunday, however this will probably change timings and track between now and then. 

[Don]

4 hours ago, B87 said:

Wasn't it originally going to turn drier and sunnier from mid-March? Then late March, and so on. Now it looks like we be well into May with no dry and sunny spells.

It's getting like it is in winter for snow seekers, with the season just gone a perfect example.  It was supposed to turn colder late December, then it was early January, mid January, late January, early February, mid February, late February and before we knew it, it was March!  However, at least it's only April with peak summer a good few months away. 

I'm sure we will have some hot weather next season, but will it be of the heat spike variety among cooler/unsettled spells or will we get more prolonged pleasant weather without getting ridiculously hot and humid?!  2018 was great in that it was consistently warm/hot with only modest levels of humidity until late July.

Edited April 23 by Don

[In Absence of True Seasons]

[Alderc 2.0]

Have to say the model output in the medium term has again turned very unsettled and dominated by low pressure. Absolutely nothing to suggest anything warm, sunny and dry before before or during the bank holiday weekend.

[SunSean]

 In Absence of True Seasons Unless its forecasting the usual garbage grey/wet sewage then its accurate to about 20 days out! Lol.

[Alderc 2.0]

Freezing cold dog this morning although at least it wasn’t raining or windy which is something of a miracle. Playing golf today, although really looking forward to it as it’s so raw. Weather for Dallas looks good from the weekend, highs in the upper 20s or low 30s and mins around 20C with a severe storm or 2 possible. Can’t wait. 

[CoventryWeather]

Don't think it's as cold outside as previous days. 

Output looks mediocre. Any high pressure seems short lived but settles nicely over Griceland. 

To anyone else going on holiday/storm chasing, have a nice time.. bring back the warm dry weather when you come back! 

[Markus03]

At least you don't get snow so late. 30 cm snow this late is just insane for Southern Finland. This isn't Lapland.

Edited April 24 by Markus03

[AderynCoch]

 Markus03 It's happened before:

 

[Markus03]

 AderynCoch Winters used to be longer. Even when it's possible to see them lasting long even now, averagely winters are getting shorter.

[TwisterGirl81]

A lovely sunny morning here, tomorrow doesn’t look too bad either

[Nick L]

 TwisterGirl81 Then crap for the weekend, of course.

[TwisterGirl81]

 Nick L of course, looks like heavy rain Saturday….anyone getting excited over a late winter ssw next year I think I’ll go insane, 2 springs on the trot where it’s been cool, not warm and not even average sunshine, can only hope May saves us like last May

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

2 springs on the trot where it’s been cool, not warm and not even average sunshine

It’s been warm for the most part to be fair, only recent days has it actually felt chilly here.  It’s the lack of sunshine that’s made it so crap though, totally dull, overcast & devoid of actual weather most of the time.

Unfortunetly, bar the odd day here & there, that doesn’t look like changing anytime soon.  RIP the 4 seasons of the year!

[TwisterGirl81]

 AWD Anything below 18c personally I do not class as warm and we’ve only reached that twice this spring but at least we have received some sun even though It’s going to take some more sun to reach aprils monthly average amounts than is currently forecast to reach.

May is fast becoming the sunniest month here so can only hope it delivers 

Edited April 24 by TwisterGirl81

[AWD]

7 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Anything below 18c personally I do not class as warm and we’ve only reached that twice this spring but at least we have received some sun even though It’s going to take some more sun to reach aprils monthly average amounts than is currently forecast to reach.

In April you’re going to get plenty of days below 18c though as that’s normal for April.  I’m not really a temperature monitoring person so maybe someone will correct me, but I’m sure the average April temperature for Exeter is slightly below 18c.

I would totally agree that 18c in Summer would be poor though, especially within the recent warming trend.

[TwisterGirl81]

 AWD I understand, 18c is above average for April for here but we usually do get some spring warmth by now, we didn’t last year and we haven’t so far this year either. But really as you said it’s the sunshine amounts we’re all craving after so many below average sunshine amounts and above average rain.

I really think all of our weather fortunes will turn a positive tide come May and it’s going to feel wonderful 

Edited April 24 by TwisterGirl81

[Downburst]

 CryoraptorA303 Hundreds and thousands of people threading all over it and kept short too, that has to have an impact. 

[AWD]

10 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

I understand, 18c is above average for April for here but we usually do get some spring warmth by now,

I totally agree with you there.  We are definitely due something prolonged and above average after enduring a perpetual Autumn for what seems like forever.

Trouble is warmer air and warmer SST’s allow more moisture into the air, develops more cloud and with winds sourced from the Atlantic direction being our default weather source, this equates to said cloud heading in our direction and more rain as we’ve been seeing for an age now.  That’s not to say there won’t be exceptions or breaks in the pattern, there hopefully will, just that like getting snow in winter, it’s ruddy hard work!!

Edited April 24 by AWD

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunSean True true! Although, IMO, that's just because of the propensity (well, near-guarantee) of our climate to deliver garbage grey/wet sewage the vast majority of the time lol, not some sort of special accuracy of British meteorologists in forecasting cloudy/wet weather. The forecasts for 2 weeks away that show overcast with potential rain have a far likelihood of manifesting, than the forecasts that show fully sunny, dry weather, purely from a probability standpoint.

I mean, we could sit here right now and make a prediction that, on the 21st of April 2025, or the 9th of October 2026, it will be "15c and overcast, with a 40% chance of rain", and I imagine there'll be a decent enough chance of it being pretty accurate.  

[TwisterGirl81]

 AWD well if we receive the 2 inches of rain weather outlook are predicting by the weeks end that means we will have had another month of nearly double average rainfall, it’s honestly becoming like a sick joke now having said that we’ve not had much if any rainfall for 2 weeks and the ground has started to crack at allotment, this surprised me given how much rain we have received I thought the water table would be super high, maybe all the windy days dried it out quicker. 

I’m actually desperate to get my water collection water butts Installed by Friday at my allotment as I know at some point it’ll flip and we won’t see rain for weeks on end, Sod’s Law but I’m not going to mad about it  

Edited April 24 by TwisterGirl81

[AWD]

@TwisterGirl81

It doesn’t take much or long to dry out & harden top soil.  Water doesn’t hang around there too long and soon seeps down to subsoil & bedrock levels.

It’s why plants need watering regularly, even if the weather pattern isn’t particularly settled or dry.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 TwisterGirl81 Enjoy it...9c and drizzle here in Essex.

Actually quite interesting that exactly the same pattern seems to be manifesting as in Spring 2023. Cool, cloudy, wet Spring, but the South-West fares better than us in the East.

West overall is generally better in these set-ups. parts of Ireland recently have been 15-18c and sunny, whilst we've barely scraped double digits for nigh-on a week over here.