General summer chat

[Snowyowl9]

Summer is all about dry settled spells a few heatwaves and mainly thunderstorms in my book..and lovely humid air and last June was perfect..Early 1980s style for thunderstorms thunder clouds...

July wasn t perfect far from it did produce corking thunderstorms one day though but from then on yes its the pest from the west back with avengence..

August was better as that at least gave a couple of shortlived mind settled spells it wasn t very warm really..

Summer came back in september with that record breaking heat..

Edited February 10 by Snowyowl9

[East Lancs Rain]

On 09/02/2024 at 21:34, cheese said:

that would be a normal UK summer though tbf. Whether it’s good or not obviously depends on how you feel about average British summer weather (which for most of England & Wales is probably low 20s and partly cloudy - Scotland and NI obviously cooler). 

I find low 20’s and high teens the most comfortable conditions in summer, so I find an average summer pretty good, from a temperature point of view at least… Not so good from a rain/sun point of view due to my location though.

[baddie]

Dare I say it, we are due a poor June now sadly

With February possibly ending up as "poor", I think a good March is on the cards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 baddie I've checked the CFS and it hints on all summer months being warmer than average in spite of la niña developing with july being particularly good.  Would be nice if the summer was drier than averaverage too.    

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 i've spoken with @CryoraptorA303 about the upcoming summer... so far it looks to have the potential of a very noteworthy one. I feel that the ENSO transition element may be given too much credit, its effects on summers in Western Europe are somewhat debatable.

[CryoraptorA303]

Need I remind people that 1995 was a rapid El Nino breakdown-La Nina formation? It wasn't anywhere close to the same amplitude as what we're looking at, but I can't help but think the La Nina formation is being given too much credit as a summer killer. If we really were going down the route of 2010 or 2016 then we should be seeing those years popping up as close relations by now. Instead we're getting 2003, 2022, 1995 and 1989 as close relations. As for 1934 and 1971, which were close relatives of January 2024 alongise 2003, I just checked the climate data for Frankfurt and while this isn't going to be a 1:1 match with the UK, that summer saw repeated heat spikes and in particular a very warm May. In the UK we reached 33.3°C which was a notably above average maximum for the time. There was also a notable September heatwave. While 1971 would not be impressive by today's standards, it saw very long periods of above average temperatures and is probably the warmest year of the 70s aside from 1975 and 1976. Sure it maxed at 30.3°C which is really quite low for our standards today and below the long-term average of the time, however it was very far from the lowest maximum of the 70s with 1972, 1974 and 1978 all failing to reach 30°C once and 1977 only just reaching exactly 30.0°C, so we can blame the relatively low maximum on the 70s being a cooler decade in general despite the overall above average temps. June 2023 for instance was the hottest on record by a significant margin, however "only" reached 32.2°C, which is quite a low annual maximum for the present day and some distance lower than what can be expected, so persistent very warm conditions don't necessarily require very high temperatures. For February we're almost exclusively getting notably hot years as close relatives with the sole exception of 2000, and 1997, 1990 and 2020 all as more distant relatives. The cooler summers of recent times like the late 2000s are not even distant relatives and are in different Orders entirely, so imo we should really not be expecting these to materialise. The signal is quite clearly a very hot year ahead.

[WYorksWeather]

Just adapting a comment I made in the moans thread that probably fits here as well.

I wonder when the last of the records from 1976 will go, primarily warmest ever CET summer at 17.7C, the June absolute maximum of 35.6C, and the 12 consecutive days over 32C.

It could be this year, but in any case, I don't think those records will survive this decade. They have all survived numerous near misses over the past decade or so. 2003, 2006, 2022 and 2018 were all within half a degree of the CET record. The June absolute maximum recently came close to falling in 2017 with an absolute maximum of 34.5C on 21st June. And 2018 saw an incredible consistency of heat at times, but not quite enough to break 12 consecutive days over 32C.

Obviously these records don't have a huge amount of importance in and of themselves. But it will still be a significant moment I think, when the last connection to what for decades was the gold standard of hot UK summers, is erased entirely from the record books.

They're impressive records, and they've done well to survive the 21st century so far. But I don't think the stay of execution will last much longer.

[kold weather]

I'm sure the 76 record will go at some point, the June record max probably just needs the right setup as well.

The 32c record though I think may prove quite stubborn, I'm not sure we've been even close, even in recent hot summers. The same synoptic patterns which are dragging up the extreme heat of the last 10 years just aren't stable enough to hold 2 weeks.

Even with a uplift of 1c in global temperatures I still think it will take a pretty special evolutionary pattern, and I imagine it's still a very rare type of pattern that will produce that kinda run.

Edited February 17 by kold weather

[WYorksWeather]

 kold weather You're right it would take a different sort of setup to what we've seen in recent record-breaking summers. You'd need a major heatwave over Europe, then to pull a large amount of very warm air up into a UK high, and have it remain in situ. You would also need this to occur when the sun is very strong to prevent the air from cooling too much.

In terms of temperature uplift, as far as the UK is concerned, the increase is more like 2C since the global temperature average is for oceans and land, and land warms more than ocean. That's why we see a lot more record breaks than you'd expect from just a 1C uplift.

[summer blizzard]

For stable temperature your best idicator is probably to be close to the center of a high that breeds its own uppers over time albeit even then you risk at least one or two cool days as another high attempts to reinforce. The 1st-4th August 1990 is a good example although the first 12 days of June 2006 was also a good example. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 CryoraptorA303 all i can say to this is oh my goodness, what an anomoly for the summer months. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Looks like a southeastern low and a big Euro high, the ideal setup for prolonged heat and dryness here.

Although this is to be taken with a pinch of salt this far out, this would apparently agree with the 1989 family close relation.

Edited February 19 by CryoraptorA303

[reef]

 CryoraptorA303 the precipitation anomaly maps show a wet June and July though, so I suspect it won't necessarily be Euro High setup that would dominate. The anomalies show June and July both 1-2C above average but wetter than normal and then a less hot but drier August. 

It's worth noting a 1-2C above average summer on that is a 17+C CET summer so it is suggesting a close to record warm summer but with average or above rainfall. Our climate has warmed a lot but I struggle to see it unless that rainfall is from thunderstorms and not fronts.

[Earthshine]

Global temperatures just keep getting higher and higher.  This month has already seen the longest streak of +2°C above pre-industrial on record.  There is far more energy to work with than in previous years.  If we do get a favourable synoptic set up this year I would say this year would be in for a good chance of seeing more extraordinary warmth.  Even last year, which was pretty lackluster for warmth, still saw two 17°C CET months. It'll be very difficult to get anything very cool with so much warmth around.  

[WYorksWeather]

 reef Maybe a setup with lots of plumes followed by thundery breakdowns?

[sundog]

 CryoraptorA303

Have to say I'm worried about what the summer has in store for the Northern hemisphere. El Niño lag effect + the background warming etc.  Wouldn't be at all surprised for Europe to see its first 50c.  With the crazy weather around the globe in 2023. This yr is the one I've been worried about the last number of months.

Edited February 19 by sundog

[SqueakheartLW]

 sundog

9 minutes ago, sundog said:

Have to say I'm worried about what the summer has in store for the Northern hemisphere. El Niño lag effect + the background warming etc.  Wouldn't be at all surprised for Europe to see its first 50c.  With the crazy weather around the globe in 2023. This yr is the one I've been worried about the last number of months.

I my experience summers following an El Nino the previous winter generally don't do too well for prolonged dry or warm weather. Heat spikes maybe but in my experience the summers of these years are poor, especially if they switch rapidly to La Nina. 1995 seems to be the main exception to this rule.

Summers following El Nino winters

1995 - Dry and warm to hot

1998 - Generally cooler and wetter

2004 - Mixed

2005 - Warm and dry

2007 - Total washout

2010 - Generally mixed

2015 - Mixed, wetter than average

2016 - Similar to 2015 but a bit better

2019 - Wet but with short heat spikes

2024 - ??????? (Based on above expecting a wetter than average summer with heat spikes the best chance of anything very warm to hot. If we rapidly transition to a notable La Nina then a 1998 or 2007 repeat could be on the cards)

[CryoraptorA303]

 mountain shadow  sundog I would be surprised if this February is the last record this year makes. I'm now expecting at least three or four more records to fall. Warmest year on record looks guarenteed now assuming no significant cold spells in late autumn or December.

Assuming the HP signal to the south of us persists and we continue to get the Azores high repeatedly shoved into us, I would suggest a high risk of the hottest summer on record with May-September's all-time highs all being under threat, and all monthly records under threat as well. The risk of a 20°C CET month is high. Both an extreme heat spike and a slow burner like August 1995 or July 2006 are distinct possibilities, or perhaps some nightmarish combination of both kinds where we see one month persistently very hot and setting a monthly record and then an extreme heatwave like 2003 the next. If this Frankenstein heatwave were to coincide with a calendar month then this would be our hottest month ever experienced by a significant margin.

The CFS forecast is very interesting with it already suggesting the southeastern low and the Azores high being persistently shoved into Europe and overextending. This would likely deliver an August 1995-esque heatwave but change the details slightly and an extreme heat spike can be inserted in as well. Shove an August 2003 plume into Europe and then have it overextend and be captured as a Euro high, that's your 20°C CET month.

Many think a La Nina will be a summer killer, however in the context of a weak i.e. wavy jet stream and a reservoir of southern HP, the more zonal flow encouraged by Nina could just as easily shove the Azores high even further into Europe. 1976 occured during a strong triple La Nina, and summer 1995 happened in a rapid El Nino breakdown-La Nina emergence year. And of course, 2022 happened in the last year of a triple Nina as well. An emerging Nina over the summer, in the context of very high global temps due to a very strong El Nino, could make a hot summer record breaking.

 SqueakheartLW The only February out of those closely related to February 2024 is 1995... The rest are extremely distant. One of January's three closest relatives was 2003. I think it's quite obvious which direction we're going in at this point.

Edited February 19 by CryoraptorA303

[Earthshine]

A classic summer's day.  The view from my office.  Can't wait to summer!

[raz.org.rain]

Meanwhile in Japan...

 

[LetItSnow!]

20 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Well I ve had plenty of cold records since 2007 and I ve been recording temps since 1990..

 

I will say that records starting in 1990 start at the beginning of the new era of the British climate so it would make sense you’d set some cold records since 2007, a lot of them I’d hazard were set between 2007 and 2013. Now if your records had begun fifty years earlier those current records probably wouldn’t be records. The dip that occurred in that time people forget every year from 2008 to 2013 was above the 1961-1990 average bar 2010. It’s what makes December 2010 so incredibly magical. 

[Summer8906]

On 19/02/2024 at 21:49, CryoraptorA303 said:

Assuming the HP signal to the south of us persists and we continue to get the Azores high repeatedly shoved into us, I would suggest a high risk of the hottest summer on record with May-September's all-time highs all being under threat, and all monthly records under threat as well. The risk of a 20°C CET month is high. Both an extreme heat spike and a slow burner like August 1995 or July 2006 are distinct possibilities, or perhaps some nightmarish combination of both kinds where we see one month persistently very hot and setting a monthly record and then an extreme heatwave like 2003 the next. If this Frankenstein heatwave were to coincide with a calendar month then this would be our hottest month ever experienced by a significant margin.

 

I still think the chance of a notably hot summer is distinctly low.

Heat spikes, yes, but the normal summer conditions of the past 15 years are predominantly cloudy and cool-by-day conditions. Think of the relative infrequency of really hot summers. 2013 (July only), 2014 (June and July warm and sunny, but not spectacularly hot), then 2018 and 2022. Little in the way of sustained hot summers in this period, so why should this summer be hot? I'd put the probability of a hot summer at 25%.

I do think this summer will be typical for the last 10 years or so, i.e., mostly cloudy, warm nights, indifferent and not infrequently coolish day temps with occasional heat spikes. Slightly warm by CET as a result. July drier, sunnier, and warmer by day than 2023 though (not hard!)

As for warmest ever year, who knows? As has been noted before, cooler periods tend to last several months (e.g mid-July 2017 to April 2018 or October 2020 to May 2021). We may yet get such a flip during this year and a good few months of this year end up being either below average or only slightly above.

Edited February 23 by Summer8906

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'd happily take another 2018.  I spent most of that summer under canvas (60 nights).  It's the perfect summer climate for me, hot for weeks on end and with low humidity.   It's the summer I will be chasing in my retirement (Algarve possibly).

Both May bank holidays hit 26C + in my locality, and the heat just continued into June

https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2018-05-07/may-day-bank-holiday-confirmed-as-hottest-on-record

2018 British Isles heatwave - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Will we get another hot summer.  I'd put money on it!  There will be some unsettled spells but I can see 33C being hit in both July and August widely across the British Isles (pushing 38C in the South East)

Edited February 23 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[CryoraptorA303]

 Summer8906

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Heat spikes, yes, but the normal summer conditions of the past 15 years are predominantly cloudy and cool-by-day conditions

Maybe if you're in Scotland. This does not match the description of the average summer day in most of England in the past 15 years.

You really need to stop with this "the last 15 years has been terrible for summers" nonsense, the same can be said for summers before that and worse.

2006 had a very mild and wet August.

2003 had a mild July with a single heatspike and overwise very mixed and humid conditions.

The entire 1998-2002 period had mostly mild or cool summers.

Most of summer 1997 was cool and nondescript until August.

1995 had a cool start to June.

1993 was the last summer we didn't reach 30°C.

Summer 1992 was very mild.

1990 had quite a prolonged mild spell in June and July before the hot August.

Before 1989, most summers would be unacceptably cool and dull by today's standards. The 80s was the last decade that sub-20°C mean max summer months were seen in London. The warm summers of the 70s apart from those two barely reached 30°C once. The 60s had no warm summers at all and today summers like 1961-1964 would be considered unbearably cold.

Literally every hot summer ever in this country had at least one mild or cool spell, including 1976.

Please stop with this nonsense now, it's really annoying.

Edited February 23 by CryoraptorA303

[Summer8906]

 CryoraptorA303 I'm only relating what I've experienced, and yes, I was around in the 80s and 90s. But maybe best to agree to disagree.

 

Edited February 23 by Summer8906