General summer chat

[Summer8906]

 CryoraptorA303 @LetItSnow!True, was looking at the stats and reports from local contributors suggesting that even after the first week, this part of the country was often adversely affected by cool and clammy onshore SW-lies when places further N and E were drier and more pleasant, protected by a longer land track.

Edited April 2 by Summer8906

[B87]

July and August 2023 were both cooler, wetter and duller than average here, but August was far superior. July was the dullest for 31 years.

July: 22.9c, 61mm on 8 days, 169 sun hours

August: 23.0c, 53mm on 7 days, 192 sun hours.

Edited April 2 by B87

[baddie]

Anybody notice that July 2020 was July 2015 in reverse

[Don]

 baddie Oh yeah, it was wasn't it!  No, I hadn't noticed that though.

[raz.org.rain]

some quite strong anomalies here, but are they to be trusted?

 

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain Usual caveats apply I think - forecast skill at that range is not much better than a slightly educated guess. I post them myself on here, but always with that health warning.

There seems no good reason to me to bet against a much warmer than average summer, given the current pattern globally. Of course, you can never predict exceptions, or the extent. At one extreme is we could have lots of heat over Europe but we rarely tap into it, a bit like a reverse of the winter just gone, where we had severe cold over Scandinavia and still ended up with a mild winter.

At the other extreme, all the factors are there, you could well say it's the warmest couple of years on record globally, there'll be tons of heat available over central and southern Europe as there always seems to be in recent summers, and if things fell right (or wrong, depending on perspective), we could have several extreme heatwaves, making every summer month well above average.

For context, the early April plume that we are getting on Saturday (which won't do much at the surface due to all the cloud and rain) is sufficiently anomalous that if a similar event happened any time from mid-June to mid-August under clear skies we'd be talking about 35-37C, minimum. And that's actually the second anomalous plume in the last few weeks, the first one hit central Europe in mid to late March and broke a ton of monthly records.

If that pattern continues, and we keep ending up in the firing line for the plumes, the hottest summer on record is absolutely a possibility. Of course there is always an element of chance in these things - all I'm saying is that the potential is there. I think we would likely need a drier period though in the second half of April and/or May to sufficiently dry out the ground.

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather Dry ground conditions are an important factor. If we look at the three hot summers of 1976, 95 and 18 they came on the back of three very dry second halves to spring.

Still time for an about change, but after 9 very wet months, it will take an exceptionally dry few weeks to set up such a foundation, and I'm not sensing any major drying out in said time period. 

[Frigid]

 baddie And that Dec 2010 was the complete inverse of 2015. Mild snap mid December 2010, cold snap mid December 2015. Exceptionally cold first 10 days, exceptionally mild first 10 days . Exceptionally cold Christmas, exceptionally mild Christmas. Also that happened in the space of 5 years, same w July 2015/20. It is quite fascinating when looking at the stats. 

Sorry just realised this is the summer thread.. 

Edited April 4 by Frigid

[Azazel]

 raz.org.rain didnt the CFS predict similar last summer? Which model/forecaster suggested a plume filled summer? The literal opposite happened so i'm a bit nervous now.

[B87]

 Frigid Neither December 2010 nor December 2015 had a mild/cold snap here.

December 2010 had an absolute max of 9.5c, just above the average of 8.8c (infact it was the only above average day all month).

The lowest max in December 2015 was 9.2c, still 0.4c above the average, and the only day to remain in single figures.

[raz.org.rain]

 Azazel I'd imagine they suggested the same for 2018 and 2022 as well, and we know how those went.

[Gray-Wolf]

If the lack of Saharan dust over the Hurricane season is a result of the impacts of the lowering of Ship Sulphur Emissions would we not expect it to continue this year and, in fact, be more 'settled' in the new role?

If the dust isn't heading for the Caribbean then is it bound due North for Western Europe?

Saw some piccies of N. Italy snowfall with two thick layers of Saharan dust embedded within it from the Easter weekend Plume they saw there?

 

Obviously air from the Sahara wont just be carrying 'dust'.....

I'm certainly keeping my eyes peeled for 'African Plumes' this Summer!! (eeeh, they used to be 'Spanish Plumes' when I were a lad!)

[Summerlover2006]

If I had to predict what this summer will be like I would say it would be a 2019 type of summer numerous heat spikes throughout the summer and also quite a bit of settled weather but also some extreme wet periods throughout which I wouldn’t complain about because in my opinion 2019 sounds decent. 

[raz.org.rain]

 Summerlover2006 a few people have been saying the same thing, a 2019 repeat is a likelihood. It was an odd year that was plenty warm but also very humid.

[Methuselah]

 raz.org.rain Quite how anyone, let alone us amateurs, thinks they can predict how the summer will pan out is beyond me. . . 

[WYorksWeather]

 Methuselah We can make an educated guess, that is all. Usual trend these days is you'd be a fool to bet against warmer than average overall, and you can be pretty sure there'll be at least one significant heatwave. Some who believe in analogues (I'm less convinced) would possibly draw some sort of trend out of El Nino, or the temperatures in the spring, solar cycle, or whatever.

I take a little bit of guidance from the long-range forecast models but only in terms of probability. Based on the current look of those models, serious heat looks more likely in June or July than in August this year. Again though, I view that as an increased chance, not any sort of prescriptive comment, since we've seen how flawed the long range forecasts turned out to be for the winter just gone.

[Summer8906]

 baddie That's true, put the two together (2015 first half and 2020 second half) and you'd end up with a fairly good July. Not breaking records for sunshine, but warm, dry and fairly sunny.

 raz.org.rain Perhaps 2019 could be considered the typical average summer nowadays, so a good one to go with to place your bets. Warm (particularly at night, though July was more generally warm) - but cloudy and changeable.

 

 

Edited April 7 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Indeed. If you go with warmer than average, cloudier than average, and rainfall average or a little above, then you're perhaps more likely to be right than other combinations, as that combination is typical for contemporary summers.

Edited April 7 by Summer8906

[Summerlover2006]

If you add the first half of July 2015 and the second half of July 2020 together do you get a cet of above 18 ??

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Not sure about necessarily duller/cloudier than average or wetter than average - there's not a clear trend that way. What might be more true is a slowing down in the pattern, in the sense that you're more likely to get one month that is clearly better than the other two, rather than a generally mixed and changeable summer. It seems like the historic pattern of the British weather moving on quickly from pattern to pattern has slowed down a lot.

It feels like we get far more situations where we have a very wet and dull period followed by a prolonged sunny and dry one, and far less generally mixed days or quick changes from one day to the next. Not sure whether that is just my perception though - it's a hard thing to investigate statistically I guess.

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather Perception suggests to me less in the way of the classic ridge /trough pattern in succesion, i.e. the low pressure from the west, associated warm front, SW winds backing west, then pronounced cold front and NW airflow, followed a cool ridge, and back to the SW flow and warm front. Instead we seem to have deeper troughs to our west, pumping up stronger ridges fending off the low pressure and pulling in southerly and long drawn SW flows, with inflated azores high, when low pressure does move through, the ridge to the SW is keen to advance quick with NW flow brushing far NE UK only.

[baddie]

 Summer8906 First half of Summer 2015 and Second half of Summer 2020 would also be a good summer, with only the second half of August being poor. Otherwise, you can switch their halves and it will create a dire summer

It would be interesting have late-March/April 2021 synoptics in late-May/June however, and I would love that. 33c heat spike on the BH weekend, then perhaps the best early-summer month in history (Cool nights, Average days, Bone dry and Very sunny)

Edited April 7 by baddie

[B87]

 baddie Why would April 2021 synoptics produce average days if they occurred in June? Surely it would be something closer to a dry and sunny version of June 1991?

Edited April 7 by B87

[baddie]

 B87 Maybe slightly below average, with most days probably seeing Northerly and Easterly winds (Not unlike early-June 2023, but perhaps less North Sea cloud). June 1991 was the 8th dullest on record, and a June equivalent of April 2021 would mean the sunniest June on record, and possibly even the sunniest individual month on record

Edited April 7 by baddie

[B87]

 baddie But it wouldn't be warm or even average. It would be more like May than June, temperature-wise.

April 2021 was interestingly, the 7th coldest, 7th driest and 7th sunniest on record at Heathrow.

Edited April 7 by B87