General summer chat

[MP-R]

 WYorksWeather Well that would surely spell a very thundery summer with flabby areas of low pressure close to the SW, such that the usual spots cop the downpours and storms while the eastern side stays drier.

Very unusual for that pattern to persist at length though.

[WYorksWeather]

 MP-R Exactly - it strikes me as very, very bizarre. Your suggestion is definitely one scenario.

The other option I suppose would be turbo-charged westerlies a good chunk of the time with a warm North Atlantic. We typically associated that with relatively cool weather in summer, but as we saw last July it can be close to average if the North Atlantic is very warm. You could then have that pattern say 15-20 days each month, which would account for most of the rainfall, and then you would need a very hot week or two to skyrocket the averages and make it well above average overall.

Certainly it would be a very strange summer either way, and one with no historic precedent whatsoever. Hence I'm inclined to think the CFSv2 is going off on one.

[LetItSnow!]

I genuinely ignore the CFS and every LRF since I started getting into weather properly since I was 12, it's served me well.

If I had to guess for 2024... Going against the grain and going to say we'll have a cool summer, at least for modern times, we'll have an annual maximum around 32C and it'll be considered poor but not horrific, sort of slotting in with the kinds of summers like 2015, 2009, 2002, 1998, 1993, 1981 etc. It probably won't be massively wet though wouldn't rule it out. But I think at least one month will be dry and decently sunny. Overall a mixed bag, rather cool, forgettable.

[WYorksWeather]

 LetItSnow! Not a bad idea, I always add a just for fun disclaimer whenever I post them. It's just nice to have some charts to look at I guess - just as long as nobody gets too attached to them.

I think a summer can be near normal or cooler than average without necessarily being subjectively poor though. Perceptions are generally based on daily highs more than means, and also the number of rain days rather than the actual amount. I think a week of really unsettled and unseasonal weather in a summer month usually 'feels' better than the same amount of rain but spread out as endless days of cool Atlantic drizzle. That's one of the things that the headline anomalies really can't tell you. I wouldn't mind a summer slightly on the cool side and not overly dry as long the rain occupies a relatively small number of days.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather a few months ago I was talking about what it would be like if we saw a very wet but very hot summer, and imagined it would be something akin to those warm days we had last June that ended with thunder and lightning. The sudden switch from hot and dry to thundery and wet made it feel unusually tropical, even had a mate tell me it was like being back in Hong Kong that night. 
 

I get the impression it'll either be a very dry or a very wet summer, but in either case will be significantly above average with a lot of heat. The heat and wet combo would be interesting for the explosive thunder but perhaps not the humidity.

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain The annoying thing about that would be probably very high minima and very oppressive days.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 WYorksWeather Yes, it's more multifaceted than simply just a "cool" or "warm" summer. 

2023's Summer had the warmest June on record, and each summer month was above average CET temperature-wise...but the general consensus is that it was a poor summer overall because the protracted period of cloudy and wet weather than occured throughout July and most of August. This weather particularly affected weekends, with all 7 weekends being hit by low pressure, which further marred perceptions about the summer as that's the main time that most people have plans / have time to enjoy the weather. 

I don't think the vast majority of us are too bothered by whatever the overall max temp of the year ends up being. It's not what makes it breaks a summer season, not for me at least.

I'd wager that most people on this forum - and certainly the average British person - would prefer a 'cooler' summer with lots of clear, sunny days and fewer rainfall days, over a 'warmer' summer with more overcast and rainy days but the odd heat blast here and there.

22c and fully overcast in say, June, is a very different experience to 22c and crystal clear skies, or just a few fluffy clouds. Warm v cool summer does not tell the whole story imo

[LetItSnow!]

 WYorksWeather I agree. Hot summers suck. I love any negative anomaly I can get, I don't care what month it comes. I like to know it can still happen. Every year the blue anomalies on maps shrink more and more...

There are plenty of summers in the past that people can brush off as bad because of a lower C.E.T. but they were probably pleasant, like 1969. August 1981 was sunny, very dry and often warm but didn't get above 28C all month, but I'd take that over August 1995 any day. Cool doesn't equate bad and warm doesn't equate good, just look at summer 2020 or summer 2004 for example.

[MP-R]

 WYorksWeather This would also be an issue with your second point about a warm Atlantic summer. Like last July had high minima but meagre or cool maxima, a warm version would be on steroids

[Summer8906]

 MP-R Not impossible I guess (think 1994, when it was hot, sunny and thundery from around June 10 to August 10, two months, with occasional cooler interludes) but agree, unusual.

1994 wasn't terribly wet though in these two months, in fact it was distinctly dry away from the thundery outbreaks. Just about all of 1994's meaningful rainfall occurred in the final three weeks of August, when it turned cool, cloudy and unsettled.

Perhaps 1994 synoptics but with the low a little further east and persisting all three months?

Edited March 16 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! Ah, another fan of August 1981. I always get the impression that I get my leg pulled a little over singing the praises of that one, but IMO, it was very good indeed. It was persistently settled with just that short severe thundery spell and following dull weather from the 6th-9th. August 1991 is another vastly-underrated one, for very similar reasons.

Perhaps I am biased towards it, though, as it was the first prolonged fine spell I can remember. I was alive in summer 1976 but can't remember the weather at all (even though I do have a small number of memories from 1976 as a whole).

Could be because my earliest memory was in 1975, and I just experienced summers 1975 and 1976 and saw them as "normal". I do, in particular, remember perceiving 1978, which I have some memories of, as poor.

Edited March 16 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! It would certainly be Sod's law if it went cool at exactly the wrong time (i.e. summer).

Just imagine if 2024 has 10 out of 12 months warmer than the 61-90 average and the two exceptions are .... July and August.

(My own preference for cool months for the rest of the year, if I had to pick two, would be April and December).

Edited March 16 by Summer8906

[*Stormforce~beka*]

CAn we skip the rest of "Spring" and go straight to summer please

 

 

[damianslaw]

We are entering on average our driest most settled quarter of the year, which tends to implode by the summer solstice, whilst mid June to mid Sept is our warmest quarter it is typically far wetter and more unsettled. Overall I far prefer the next quarter of the year and in this regard don't want to move straight to summer, a definate shift takes place in late March, the new 'dawn' is just around the corner.

[B87]

 Summer8906 I've said this before, but I really don't understand the praise that August 1981 gets. Looking at the stats, it was like August 2012 but cooler and wetter. Nobody says August 2012 was a good summer month. August 1981 is the bare minimum of what you'd expect for the time of year.

At Heathrow: av max 22.8c, 45mm rainfall, 218 sun hours. Totally indifferent in pretty much every way.

[stainesbloke]

 B87 Much of the SE had epic thunderstorms with rare daytime darkness on August 6th that year, which I remember. That was the highlight of the month

[WYorksWeather]

Time for another quick CFSv2 update for the summer. Again, strictly just for fun.

First, summer overall (JJA). Above average heights around to our north and east, though blocking is more focused on the North American side of Greenland. Precipitation looks near normal to wetter than average.  Temperature-wise, the summer has been downgraded somewhat, though with a signal for above average temperatures overall, especially so in the SE and SW.

Now, the month-by-month breakdown. June first, which looks to have a strong signal for above average heights, and hence quite a lot of dry weather you might think. However, the precipitation map doesn't really back this up - maybe scattered thunderstorms boosting the rainfall total? It can't be standard Atlantic dross, as otherwise it's doubtful we'd get the very warm month that the CFSv2 is showing.

Next, July. A much poorer signal in terms of the 700mb heights. Not necessarily low pressure, but in practice you would probably think that with the blocking around to our south-west, north-west, and east, that there might well be a low pressure signal for the UK in reality. It is both a much wetter month, and it's a much closer to average month temperature-wise. Even this though would not be nearly as poor as e.g. a July 2023 scenario - temperatures are still above the 1991-2020 average, whereas last July was actually somewhat below average.

Compare and contrast the above with actuals for July 2023 below.

Finally, on to August. We continue with the lack of much in the way of above average heights for the UK. It's a fairly non-descript month rainfall-wise though. And again, it tends towards above average temperatures on 1991-2020, but only slightly.

Again, worth comparing to August 2023 - I think it's a slight improvement from a warmth point of view, and similar for rainfall.

Summary

The latest CFSv2 for the summer seems to be offering us a modestly improved version of 2023 at the moment. It's a frontloaded summer, with a very warm or hot June, followed by a deterioration. July and August are definitely not as good, but I don't think either month is as bad as last year's.

Again, this probably won't verify, so again, to emphasise, all of the above is just for fun, but of course comments welcome as always.

[MP-R]

 WYorksWeather If that were to play out then we really need to April & May to be good months too otherwise this really is going to be a depressing year… again!

[B87]

 MP-R Hopefully more along the lines of 1996 or 2005, rather than 2010 or 2023.

All started with good Junes and then deteriorated.

Edited March 26 by B87

[MP-R]

 B87 Yes. Another 2005 type summer would be good. Lots of sunny weather earlier in June too even though it was cool.

[B87]

 MP-R June was above average in 2005, July was slightly below, but had average sunshine. August had average highs, cool lows and was the last 250 sun hour August before 2022.

[MP-R]

 B87 Just shows how good the second half of June was! Sadly I missed Julys hot weather and instead arrived home in time for that really naff final week. I very much enjoyed August and September though.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 B87 so many people are remembering 2007 as the dregs of a summer, when in actual fact the first half of June wasn't that bad, it had average sunshine throughout the summer and August was actually pretty nice albeit on the cool side.   

I think may of 2007 actually had a positive AO, but when we got into the summer AAM tanked, one of the reason behind our very unsettled summer, other reasons were the flip from niño to niña, the east QBO was partially responsible in tandem with negative zonal winds blowing in the troposphere aligning with the weak sea ice .   

You contrast that to may 2006 when there was a lot of northern blocking, but that swiftly changed when the calendar changed to June and the jet stream migrated further north giving us a very hot June and July combined.   Also the west QBO and niño like atmospheric waves gave us the hot summer of 2006.    It was a great season up until August really.   

[B87]

 Addicks Fan 1981 2007 definitely didn't have average sunshine in London, it was a dull and wet summer. The first half of June was probably the only seasonable part of that summer, with no rainfall until 13th. The warmest day in July was a pathetic 24.0c! 

Stats for Heathrow

June 2007
Av max: 21.2c
Rainfall: 63.8mm on 14 days
Sunshine: 170.7 hours

July 2007
Av max: 21.4c
Rainfall: 115.2mm on 13 days
Sunshine: 182.6 hours

August 2007
Av max: 21.5c
Rainfall: 41.0mm on 8 days
Sunshine: 213.5 hours

Edited March 26 by B87

[baddie]

It would be interesting if March-June 2021 synoptics happened in May-August. This will mean a record breaking heat spike + thunderstorms around the late-May Bank Holiday, then a June that defines "perfect" - Abundant sunshine all month, chilly nights and average days. It will mean a poor July though, but a thundery one and the better weather towards the school holidays (Perhaps more preferable than July 2023), then a glorious first 17 days of August (A poor second half however). The highest temperature of the year would likely be in late-May, but 30c reached many times in the first half of August

May = March 2021
June = April 2021
July = May 2021
August = June 2021

Edited March 30 by baddie