Spring 2024

[raz.org.rain]

 Weather Enthusiast91 same here, a very pleasant and classic early spring day. The forecast made it sounds like it would be a chilly and rainy day, turned out to be more or less the opposite.

Edited March 26 by raz.org.rain

[AWD]

This is turning out to be one of the worst starts to Spring, IMBY, for quite some time.  Consistently dull, consistently cloudy, often wet and not all that warm lately either.

I can count on one hand the number of sunny, dry days I’ve had IMBY, & even those were partly sunny, partly cloudy.

So much for a 20c March here!!!

Edited March 26 by AWD

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 AWD I don't think we'll see early 20c's anymore!

[B87]

 *Stormforce~beka* Maybe not until the middle of May at this rate. 

London's average first 20c date is 6th April.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 B87 I agree with you!

[Metwatch]

I went for April 10th guess as the first 20C of the year, but even that might be too early! 2 weeks left until that date and not much signs of it yet.

[damianslaw]

 AWD I think it feels a very poor start namely because it has very much been more of the same mild gunk we've had since mid October with little variation. Lengthy dry periods have been by and large absent bar the spell in early-mid Jan which was relatively short but good for sunshine.

The dull dank skies have outstayed their welcome.

Spring growth is early this year, many trees don't look far off coming into leaf, probably 2-3 weeks ahead of average. 

Edited March 26 by damianslaw

[Summer8906]

 damianslaw I've noticed the growth has slowed down a bit of late, probably because it's been less mild (even at or a little below at times)  but more particularly, very, very dull.

Presumably once we get past the equinox sunshine is as important to growth and flowering as temperature. So this period with average-ish temperatures and a stark lack of sunshine will presumably slow things a bit.

Things are in a bit of a sorry state here to be honest. The daffodils, which really should be at their peak now, are in decline but the later spring blossoms still some way from coming out (which is good TBH, much better if they wait until the next semi-settled period).

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 B87 Yep. Very similar sort of vibe/pattern to 2023. I didn't think it'd be possible, but here we are.

So yeah, I'm in agreement re the first 20c of the year - unless some drastic shift suddenly occurs in the latter half of April, it'll be May before we see any such temps. 

The first week of April at least is looking to be more-or-less the same as now (low to mid teens max, and the odd sunny spell at best).

Edited March 26 by In Absence of True Seasons

[raz.org.rain]

I think we stand a good chance of seeing our first 20°c next month. The outputs seem keen on the idea of something warmer and drier in week 2 of April.

[WYorksWeather]

To be fair, I do think a 20C in April is actually pretty nailed on. I may look like an idiot with this, but I think it's possible even in the absence of something particularly dry. Even a wet-ish south-westerly type pattern could do it with a few cloud breaks. We've got fairly close in March despite a distinct absence of any sustained southerly warmth. Unless the whole of April is dominated by winds from the NW, N or NE, I think we'll probably do it at some point.

A widespread and sustained 20C for several days is probably a tougher bet, and that might have to wait until May if we continue with the current pattern. I am expecting though that we will see an abrupt flip at some point.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather I forget what the highest temp for March was but it was really close to reaching 20°c. Given how easily we've reached the upper teens so far this year I'd say it's a safe bet to assume we'll hit 20°c pretty soon. A May heatwave seems to be a likelihood this year so I suspect we could see our earliest 30°c perhaps.

[B87]

 WYorksWeather We are going to have a terrible April I feel. Average highs of 13c and rain on over half of the days. Nothing above 18-19c, and only on a couple of days at best.

[LetItSnow!]

 raz.org.rain To be fair, two weeks away in model terms is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. I would expect 20C in April though as that’s very normal. You record the first 20C in April on average anyway. I think the last time we failed to was all the way back in 2012. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! Last year it took until 7th May. 

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 Down here yes but parts of Scotland managed 21C on the 17th of April last year. You often see locally warm temperatures up there at that time of the year. Probably something to do with geography, very strong sun and high pressure oriented in the right place.

 

 

Edited March 27 by LetItSnow!

[Summer8906]

So too early to place bets on the wettest spring on record?

If for example April 1-15 had 200% of normal rainfall, and April 16-May 31 was just marginally wetter than average (let's say 105%) how close would we be I wonder? That is a realistic scenario, I still don't really buy the extreme wet persisting through all of April and May - surely it has to change soon (I hope!)?

I suspect it'll take notably dry weather in the 2nd half to prevent it being the wettest since 1983, at least. And up to this point, I suspect it's even wetter than 1983 (the really wet weather that year was focused on April/May)

Edited March 28 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! Spring 2024 is enough to make you re-rate April 2023 as a decent month! (Yes, it's that bad!)

I think we'd all give up everything to see a repeat of that synoptic chart from last year. And I'd now be over the moon if April 24 was a repeat of April 23. Yes, really...

Edited March 28 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 27/03/2024 at 01:08, B87 said:

rain on over half of the days.

Even 16 rain days out of 30 would be an improvement on what we have now!

Given the first 12 days are likely to see rain on every day according to model runs, that would mean that even if the 13th-30th had just 4 wet days, that statistic would be reached.

[SunnyG]

Spring what spring? Was it 2013 that we got crappy weather until mid July? This may be even worse.

Edited March 28 by SunnyG

[Summer8906]

 SunnyG 2024, the year without a spring. See also 1998 and 1983, though neither, at this point in the season, were quite as bad.

I suspect there'll be no spring, but the second half of meteorological spring might resemble summer at times.

Edited March 28 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 April here averages 7 or 8 wet days. A very high chance that April will have above average rainfall and wet days after the first 8 days of the month.

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 Locally April 2023 was very wet as was the opening ten days or so of May. If high pressure hadn't taken over in the second half of May then it would have been an extremely wet spring, but seeing as the summer before had been so dry and the winter wasn't overly wet, I don't think it was too bad. Plus, my own preferences enjoy it. Indeed I don't remember spring 2023 feeling all that gloomy. March 2024 has felt gloomier but perhaps that's a mind set thing.

Checking the outlook for the next ten days, it still shows a lot of low pressure but with that mild southwesterly element. Funny how, particulalry in spring and autumn that a south-westerly and its polar opposite, north-easterly, can bring some foul conditions. Northeasterlies at least have the benefit of winter/early spring/late autumn snow. 

The long term average for April is 58mm and I can see 2024 surpassing that. If we have a very wet first half then probably 50-70mm at least nailed for the UKP. I sense volatility and expect heavy rain, and particularly thunderstorms, will be the name of the game this spring, though I think May 2024 will be the most likely to have a hot week. I feel an early summer this year.

Edited March 28 by LetItSnow!

[Summer8906]

 B87 Indeed but my desperation now is such that I'd be happy with 16 wet days with the second half mostly dry.

[B87]

 LetItSnow! I don't think a single hot and dry week in May will make up for the preceeding 35 weeks of absolute rubbish.