Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[AO-]

After discussing the different members of GFS at day 10 this afternoon, I thought it would be nice to do it for the GFS12 as well. The short conclusion for me is that synoptically the ensemble has improved. I selected the members that look most promising, regardless of the days after T240. I found that there are a lot of members showing some kind of ridging over the Atlantic. About half of them. Have a look and take your pick: 

 

Edited January 25 by AO-

[WYorksWeather]

Still time yet. Beginning to keep an eye on these charts for signs of a halt to the fall in SSTs, but we're not there yet.

Today:

 

Projection at day 5:

Day 10:

Day 15:

[phil nw.]

Difficult to see an end to the mobility yet.

Signs of the main spv heading towards the Siberian side later but the 500 pattern continues to keep a small section towards Canada.

Some interludes of colder westerly winds as the lows pass across but it is still essentially a waiting game for a pattern change towards any notable cold spell.

[Gowon]

I noticed the UKMO was consistently wrong with stalling the jet.

They're all as bad as each other.

[AO-]

And finally. The Average shows a quite convincing signal for a vortex to be split into a lobe over the Aleutians and one over Scandinavia/West Russia. 

[johncam]

  @AO- and still a high to the south of us.

[feb1991blizzard]

Very Interesting GEFS.

[Dennis]

Our Korean friends

 

[Ali1977]

ECM at 192

 

216 looking cold 

Edited January 25 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

Some crazy 850 anomolies over central and n Canada next week (+29c !!!!) 

ec op follows the gfs 06z op by splitting a chunk of vortex south over New England 

[Big Gally]

[Tim Bland]

Finally !! The chance of a few flurries ! Like gold dust this year !

[nick sussex]

From a low base the ECM improves .

Showing some colder conditions heading se and the limpet high being flattened .

However we’re still feeding off scraps from the buffet table.

We’re still stuck in the cheap seats close to the bog . That is of course an improvement from being stuck outside getting soaked .

So a start but no sign yet of anything that could deliver crunchy snow .

# Coldies Against Slush .

Edited January 25 by nick sussex

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM giving a starter for ten on their 12z not perfect but In my opinion heading towards a colder outlook let’s hope for a continuation along with a pressure rise further north.

[damianslaw]

Wasn't expecting the 216hr run from ECM this eve, is it an outlier? Brings in a very cold northerly shot with sub 522 dam air...proper cold air ripe for wintry precipitation. 

GFS continues to suggest a more amplified flow into February with a shift in PV to Scandi but still a lobe to our NW.

A change from the predominantly very mild westerly/south westerly flow seems the direction as we enter the new month based on current models, with a switch to possible colder incursions from the NW. 

One thing to remember despite increased solar heating through Feb, the arctic and SSTs continue to cool, meaning northerly incursions often bring colder uppers than in Dec and Jan.

Edited January 25 by damianslaw

[bluearmy]

Eps suite in the extended is a downgrade on the 00z run with lower mid Atlantic and higher euro heights 

[Eagle Eye]

GLAAM tendency now significantly +VE. W/all +VE MT, especially east Asian and north American but also tropical momentum rising. Therefore the momentum built-up forcing w/MJO phase 7 is a potential high-lat blocking pre-cursor for mid-Feb but there's still MJO phase uncertainty.

[Dennis]

GEM 12z

[northwestsnow]

  @bluearmy

Hopefully ebbs and flows ...

EC 46 out shortly.. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hopefully ebbs and flows ...

Like I said last night, plenty of toing and froing from the models moving forward.  Question is, where will it land?!

[feb1991blizzard]

  @northwestsnow

You'll be lucky to see it though.

[bluearmy]

  @northwestsnow when the website is back up !

[Jamie M]

  @Eagle Eye

 

That very strong Pacific jet is certainly a show for how strong the +MT event currently is 

Let's just hope MJO passes through the maritime barrier and doesn't 'konk' out 

[sebastiaan1973]

  @Eagle Eye  Wow, that [GLAAM] is going through the roof. Is this rare? 

 

EC46 doesn't seem to work tonight.  

Edited January 25 by sebastiaan1973

[Eagle Eye]

  @sebastiaan1973 I suspect it's quite rare but I'm fairly new to these.