Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wow morning guys..the output is as bad as it gets!

[northwestsnow]

LOL EC now wants to introduce a monster PV.

I'm afraid chasing  UK cold in  the modern climate is becoming a complete waste of time....( Scotland excluded).

[TillyS]

12 hours ago, TEITS said:

If you cannot see what is so special about the ECM then I give up!

And today’s 0z ECM?

This is the problem with picking and choosing isolated output panels at long range. 

Yes, it may change. And yes there’s always potential in mid to late February. But right now the evidence remains sparse at long range, and we’re often relying on a series of teleconnections that may, but quite probably won’t, actually connect.

The models are consistently pointing to high pressure to the south of the UK, no northern blocking, and (ergo) a predominantly mild south-west to west flow. This is the three-pointed unbreakable curse of winter 2023/4.

 

[MJB]

Horrific output with little sign of anything backing EC 46 

[SLEETY]

  @northwestsnow  I nearly threw up when I saw the runs this morning.The iberian/azores high looks like taking control.Watch it vanish without a trace once march arrives.

woeful outlook if your looking for cold and snow,great if you like mild though.

[Big Dave]

Keep the faith. You have to reach the bottom before it can turn around.   That starts tomorrow.

[SLEETY]

  @TillyS curse of the majority of winters since late 80s,lol.

Looking forward to watching the pattern switch end of feb onwards.Look at the current model output and turn it upside down for how the weather patterns will look in Spring and probably parts of  summer too 

[blizzard81]

  @northwestsnow I must admit, the models are a proper kick in the teeth this morning. Pv setting up exactly where it wasn't forecast to. I was expecting some sort of consolidation on a cold spell during week 2 on this morning's suites. I wonder what's gone wrong this time?

[TillyS]

3 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

That starts tomorrow

It’s always going to turn around tomorrow. That’s part of the problem  

Anyway I’m off to the Scottish highlands in a fortnight and really hope I see some snow. I can’t believe the way it has disappeared over the last few days: 

https://www.ski-glenshee.co.uk/Webcam

 

The outputs show vague signs of occasional meridional zonality in the north with wintriness over the Scottish mountains, with a possible northerly of sorts at some point, so I have fingers crossed.

 

[northwestsnow]

  @blizzard81 the last sentence is very telling.

There is nearly always something that goes wrong,time and time and time again.

Last year it was Nina to blame, wonder what's to blame this time around.

NINO / EqBo = waste of time ..

NINA / WQbo = waste of time.

I'm convinced we'll see cold,probably March  but I'll be logging off for another winter well before then..

 

Edited January 30 by northwestsnow

[Nick2373]

 

Just one run and the bandwagon is full and playing a familiar tune,  Anyway 00z shows a steady decline to cooler conditions from the 09th onward there are more perts over the colder side than above the 30year mean. 

We all know that signals can change at the drop of a hat granted its not looking spectacular at the minute but there are hints of something closer to average around the 10th  certainly one to watch.  

[jules216]

ECMWF - Winter stays at week 3 as in 90% of the time. Its always wise to look at some past analogs to give you an idea about validity of some long range forecasts. I was quite certain that any cold if it arrives is most likely going to come in March and February was never really showing anything of interest in our analog package appart from 2004/05 which was also almost most interesting here very late in February and March.

[johncam]

  @MJB let's be honest the EC46 are hopeless. The whole of January and February were looking good for cold at one time.

[Daniel*]

Strong signal for Euro heights to dissipate..

[NewEra21]

I feel like that SSW earlier this month no matter how short it was, absolutely ruined the prospects for the remainder of winter. It wasn’t strong enough to blow the NH open, but enough to end our cold chances.

Usually we’re relying on a SSW, but this year it hit at exactly the wrong time. Things were looking promising for January, then that shook things up a little and this is the result of where we find ourselves now.

I’ve no doubt come late Feb/Early March we’ll see what we wish we could see now. But it takes something truly special at that time of year. Aka 2018

[tight isobar]

Morning!. The winter of discontent continues!.. ironically the polar profile/ pv are playing ball.. however the drivers- equatorial platforms, are miss firing. We need the madden JO to play a massive factor of gain to revive anything “ like winter Synoptics “ for our shores!!  I’m not seeing anything other  than switch n revert just now !!!

Edited January 30 by tight isobar

[Snowboy111]

Remember the days of watching the farmers weekly forecast on the beeb on a Sunday and if it didn’t show cold for the week then the depression would be for 10 mins and I’d move on and wait for next Sunday. Looking at models every 6 hours to show the same doom and  gloom is no good for your mental health. I get it’s the model discussion thread but having a meltdown over a chart that’s over a week away isn’t helping some people. 
 

2013 was best case scenario. Didn’t look at any models at all for 10 days and 2 days before we got the big channel low snowstorm a colleague at work said ‘you must be happy, snow soon I see!’  The joy when I went online to look at the gfs. 

Edited January 30 by Snowboy111

[Singularity]

Timing i.e. pace of change is usually the bigger challenge than direction of travel when it comes to looking 10+ days ahead.

Main reason being the wide variation in lag times between the behaviour of the MJO & the mid to high latitude pattern response.

Cycles of AAM are connected. The slower the MJO moves, the more of the time AAM is likely to be out of sync, inhibiting pattern shifts. Seems on this occasion the result should be a pattern shift sometime in 2nd week Feb.

Then we run into the question of how pronounced that shift is. Recent modelling has hardly been emphatic, hence I’ve kept expectations low lately, not talking up much cold weather wise. It kind of feels like building a shed using several different schematics - the end result may loosely resemble a shed but it will have a propensity for deficiencies!

 

[Mike Poole]

Shock horror!  Models fail to show cold in the timeframe it is not expected in!

It remains beyond day 10 and the vagaries of the op runs at the moment.  ECM clusters T192-T240:

Largely Atlantic dominated, with a transient ridge most notable on cluster 2, but not really a shift in pattern.

T264+:

This is the change timeframe, and a fair few options here.  The theme to lower heights to our south by day 15 is present across all clusters, as I’ve mentioned before, less clear is what blocking patterns might develop.  Cluster 4 builds heights into Scandi which we’ve not seen recently, but only has 6 members.  Clusters 2, 3 and 5 look best for developing something colder, cluster 1 has things a bit too far west.  The potential in this timeframe is still there this morning, but the output is rather messy at the moment, as while a pattern change is suggested, the models are not clear on what to…

[LRD]

  @johncam Just not true. The EC46 signposted the mild spell (after the largely pathetic cold we had the other week) we're in very well. Admittedly it saw a relatively quick return to cold which has gone wrong

But it's a model that goes 6 weeks in advance! Of course it's going to be wrong a lot of the time! I find it quite reliable for 2-3 weeks in advance. Even had is successes at 4 weeks. But anyone pouring their emotions and hopes into what the EC46 shows... well, more fool them

MOGREPS has flipped.........drum roll....... mild. What a shock!

[Dennis]

gfs0z 5 febr 

[jules216]

ECMWF control which generally supports main run well is showing what has been an increasing trend of slowly raising the heights in far SE Európe or south Russia in line with a cyclonic Wave breaking atempt in the Atlantic that will/Can result in February having a very good probability now to be the mildest of 3 winter months here. The clusters are also showing growing support. If the lows break to the west of us then hopefully central Europe will continue having dry and sunny weather as the last thing I want is the low pressure to break through from the west as they only bring mild wet weather with Zero amplitutes and sun, much rather Euro high and sun knowing that anyway there is close to 0 probability of cold enough pattern fór widespread Snow. If it didnt come in 11 weeks of winter I dont want it now to even try risking being on wrong side of low Pressure systems.

Edited January 30 by jules216

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, TillyS said:

It’s always going to turn around tomorrow. That’s part of the problem

Yes ,this winter promised so much ,and delivered very little to most ,but with a month left of meteorological winter still time to wind in the goods. Unfortunately, I think we can write off the next couple of weeks, so that brings us to mid-February Probably end up with a very cold spring  which normally seems to happen with this situation. ...

[bluearmy]

A lot more disturbed tpv output for day 15 on the 00z eps than previous suites 

whilst the ops may be unconvincing, the latest ens across all three main models are showing nw euro/sceuro troughing end week 2 which is pushed south into France We just need a mechanism to get cold to our east and southeast. An amplified Atlantic ridge over or east of Greenland - or anywhere east to scandi would be helpful but currently not really showing with any consistency. 

[MJB]

  @johncam let's be honest the EC46 are hopeless. The whole of January and February were looking good for cold at one time.

 

I wouldn't disagree, EC46 was dreadful last year and like a lost puppy I followed it up the garden path....................guess what I have done the same thing this Winter