Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Harsh Climate]

 blizzard81

Mate it was a setup like this 3 years ago that brought three 6-10'' falls snow over northern England over space of 4/5 weeks, Like what we are seeing the synoptics were nothing special, but with low pressures bumping up against -4/-5 850 upper air, that is all that was needed!

People need to get out there head, big Greenland highs and strong NE to Easterlies bringing -15 850s nationwide, it just doesn't happen apart from once every 10 years or so! 

Edited February 2 by Harsh Climate

[LRD]

 Harsh Climate That ain't necessarily so. My expectations are very low every winter and, still, most winters fail to meet even those very low standards! I don't expect raging NE'lys. Just the occasional spell of snow that brings 5 or 10cm IMBY

I do agree with the point, in general, though. Things have been so underwhelming this last decade that we have been programmed to think mediocre set ups are now good as the goalposts have been moved so much

Edited February 2 by LRD

[AO-]

 Harsh Climate To be honest, I'm not very happy with that chart. It is way too fragile for long lasting cold. Over snow cover in southern England it is great, but I see the vortex already regathering.  A Northeasterly is a better chance of keeping the cold than this synoptic setup imho. EC is worse than GFS control for next Thursday but cold in the end. Overal the models are improving and we'll await ensembles

[nick sussex]

The outputs remain frustrating regardless of the snow fantasy charts of the GFS and ECM.

They’re acceptable as in there is some potential but there’s no northern blocking and the depth of cold is marginal.

I think the juries still out at this time . The low which moves in from the Atlantic is still subject to revision . The ECM manages the great escape between day 9 and 10 .

We don’t have weeks to spare in terms of winter and so for this reason tonight’s outputs are scored with that in mind .

An average score of 6/10 .

 

 

[Anthony Burden]

ECM showing all of UK under the 528 dam 192 hrs onwards not bad considering no reliability on high level blocking.

[Harsh Climate]

 AO-

I'm not looking at that chart as exactly what is shown in fine detail though. I'm looking at it vaguely and picking a few important details out like it will be locked in cold (for a bit), the Azores high has migrated way south and hints of a continental feed into the south.. 

Obviously though if that chart verified 100% it would be pretty poor in terms of snow chances, but you know what it will be much different this time tomorrow. 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECM showing all of UK under the 528 dam 192 hrs onwards not bad considering no reliability on high level blocking.

There lies the problem Anthony. It's not sustainable. The GFS ensembles show a 3-day cold snap (disagreeing with MOGREPS) and then show a split - likely because the blocking is flimsy. We might get a mid-latitude high I guess, which would not produce anything like what most on here want

Edited February 2 by LRD

[nobble]

 Kasim Awan I’d take that

[Anthony Burden]

 LRD Hi Met Office extended does.

[Harsh Climate]

 LRD

That is a cracking set of assembles, only after the 12/02 does it show a possible temperature rise, way into FI.

[LRD]

 Harsh Climate Got to politely disagree - a brief 3-day dip below average (IMBY) and then a split. Goes back to what I was saying before in that we've been so starved of winter weather this last decade that we think mediocre output/actual conditions is/are now good

That March 'spell' (if you can call it that) last year was a classic case in point. 3 days of slush and wet snow is now considered good. I'm not invested in winter weather any more but, even though I'm not, I still find that a little bit sad and depressing

Edited February 2 by LRD

[LRD]

 Anthony Burden Sorry, does what?

Not getting into it cos it's the wrong thread but the Met Office outlook, how I read it, is becoming weaker regarding cold. And the output kind of reflects that.

Let's see what Ec46 brings tonight cos it's been the one consistent hope for seeing winter this month. It might be consistently wrong, of course

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is decent ..

Looks a little further south with the low...

[Lukesluckybunch]

I thought the ecm..was pretty good maybe 7/10 ..it's probably about the best we could get out of such sypnotics..limited northern blocking etc..but I do agree with blizzard LRD etc...that at the moment it's looking a bit of a flash in the pan..more of a cold snap!

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

 Harsh Climate Got to politely disagree - a brief 3-day dip below average (IMBY) and then a split. Goes back to what I was saying before in that we've been so starved of winter weather this last decade that we think mediocre output/actual conditions is/are now good

That March spell last year was a classic case in point. 3 days of slush and wet snow is now considered good. I'm not invested in winter weather any more but, even though I'm not, I still find that a little bit sad and depressing

I agree. The winter bar is so much lower these days. I get why people do it - It's a coping mechanism. 

[Penguin16]

51 minutes ago, LRD said:

MOGREPS 12z - good for the north

Meh for the south

And something in the middle for the middle of England

Pretty much the same kind of picture UKMO 12z is showing

Unconvincing and the Met Office mid and long term outlook seems to be diluting cold. But chances for cold still there for the south from about Day 8 (I know, I know) onwards

 

Where can I check this for my location? Many thanks. 

[Paul]

1 minute ago, Penguin16 said:

Where can I check this for my location? Many thanks. 

Here

MOGREPS Model Viewer| Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Cold Winter Night]

No EPS clusters out yet, but the De Bilt output shows the pattern shift in the extended in wind direction and 2m Temperatures.
Solid increase in probability of winds from the North and East, likely comparable to the promising NH patterns on the 0z.

It's only beginning after Day 10, so there need not be disappointment about the setup before that.

[LRD]

EC46 still shows high pressure anomalies around to our north and NW but it now appears to be much closer to us. It's a subtle shift but it's there

The cold temp anomalies are still there for week of 12th but have been watered down that week and following weeks

Pressure anomalies:

Week of 12 Feb

19th Feb

Sorry, I know it's not what most of us on here want to see. It's still not bad but it's just not as good

Edited February 2 by LRD

[AO-]

Well, another update with regards to the output for here of EC tonight. The EPS hasn't improved, but neither downgraded compared to this morning. Next week will be below average of the mean would come to fruition. It is a nice signal. Most scatter is on the mid term around 7-8th February.  

To show the evolution I added tonights ensemble compared to the one of this morning, yesterday and Wednesday. Certainly heading in the right direction, but certainly not wintry for here. For Britain better, because of a bigger chance of snow next week.

 

Edited February 2 by AO-
Something went wrong with downloading the right file. Now the image is correct

[sebastiaan1973]

The output for week 19th of february. Today there is no cold anomaly for NW- & Central Europe.

Edited February 2 by sebastiaan1973

[Harsh Climate]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

 Harsh Climate Got to politely disagree - a brief 3-day dip below average (IMBY) and then a split. Goes back to what I was saying before in that we've been so starved of winter weather this last decade that we think mediocre output/actual conditions is/are now good

That March spell last year was a classic case in point. 3 days of slush and wet snow is now considered good. I'm not invested in winter weather any more but, even though I'm not, I still find that a little bit sad and depressing

Fair enough we all have our own perceptions of what is good. If good is seeing those beautiful charts that get people excited, so be it, but these nirvana charts often lead to disappointment 7+ days out.

All I am looking for at this range is trends, certain things being put in place and decent/good output progressively been brought forward closer to T0. 

*The fact that northern parts of UK are at risk of a snow dumping thursday to me is good (perhaps not for those in the south)

*There may be snow on it's back edge late Thursday/ Friday or snow showers being pulled in behind from the NE for a short time.

*Azores high goes way south, pressure rises/wedges keen to build in our part of the Northern Hemisphere

* -5 850 uppers quite widely, (colder in places) in a blocked set up with no Atlantic onslaught likely.

 

All this at the T132 ~ T 240 Range, being realistic what more can we ask for?? Anything past this period in such a messy set-up with little model agreement regarding large scale feature specifics surely have to be pure Jackanory surely??

Like I say steady as she goes, but ovcoarse people can view the output how they please, all input is welcome and adds to healthy discussion.

 

[LRD]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Fair enough we all have our own perceptions of what is good. If good is seeing those beautiful charts that get people excited, so be it, but these nirvana charts often lead to disappointment 7+ days out.

All I am looking for at this range is trends, certain things being put in place and decent/good output progressively been brought forward closer to T0. 

*The fact that northern parts of UK are at risk of a snow dumping thursday to me is good (perhaps not for those in the south)

*There may be snow on it's back edge late Thursday/ Friday or snow showers being pulled in behind from the NE for a short time.

*Azores high goes way south, pressure rises/wedges keen to build in our part of the Northern Hemisphere

* -5 850 uppers quite widely, (colder in places) in a blocked set up with no Atlantic onslaught likely.

 

All this at the T132 ~ T 240 Range, being realistic what more can we ask for?? Anything past this period in such a messy set-up with little model agreement regarding large scale feature specifics surely have to be pure Jackanory surely??

Like I say steady as she goes, but ovcoarse people can view the output how they please, all input is welcome and adds to healthy discussion.

 

The one thing I would say is it looks far better for you than me

[sebastiaan1973]

For the week of 19th February, an increased warming compared with earlier this week. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

For the week of 19th February, an increased warming compared with earlier this week. 

Was just going to say that - not great with the height chart 19th feb, losing low Europe anomaly but a major SSW now looking more and more likely, need it to really hurry up and have an almost instant effect on the trop though as time running out..