Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Mike Poole]

Moving south at T156:

Just shows that there is a chance that large swathes of the country could get a good dumping from this, and within 7 days.

[Ice Day]

No wonder our northern members are getting excited... This between 00:00 - 09:00hrs next Thursday.

  

Not great for the south, but I'd love to see some of the northern mob get their dues!

[Ali1977]

 

️️ Fergie is a sad loss to this forum , however this is obviously getting v interesting now!! 
 

CLEARLY - it could all change in the next day or 2, but it’s clear someone will get a pasting next week - could be high ground up north , could be low ground down south - by Monday night we may start having a good idea 

Edited February 2 by Ali1977

[Tim Bland]

JFF 20-25cm in the sweet spot ….which will move around a lot over the next few days …

[Ali1977]

Let’s see what the ENS do, got to keep that signal strong - should have a good mean snowfall towards T126 now 

[CoventryWeather]

Another shift south from the Icon and GFS. Expecting the euros to do the same in the morning.. 

Also the ECM ensembles show very strong support just past mid month for blocking between Scandi and Greenland. 

Edited February 2 by CoventryWeather

[Uncertainty]

Lots of easterly eps members. The mean is very close to a mean easterly 

This is not a regular ‘slight anomaly’ - it’s a pretty strong signal. 
 

The clusters might not be available on the ec site but they’ve arrived on the Icelandic site and are worth a gander

The GEM ensembles continue, as they have done over the last few days, to look spectacular 

As to the midweek low next week…. Experience tells me it’ll trend further North / deepen. However, that’s often towards the end of a cold spell (think feb 21) but this one is at the start so perhaps it will stay squashed and give central areas a good dumping. I’m yet to see one in my last 10 years of looking though so I’ll believe it when I see it. Lowland N Cumbria has seen snow in the last decade, obviously, but from weak systems moving south or showers in a cold flow. Not from an Atlantic system hitting cold air and pivoting. They’ve always gone too far N. 

[Ali1977]

Control is a pretty crazy chart and good for the south 

On a more neg front the mean has lost that snow signal for most!! On to tomorrow!! 

[Daniel*]

People follow output too black and white the situation is fluid and finely poised looking at EPS there does seem to be appetite for NAO to go more negative mid month onwards and so colder weather has potential to lock in. Quite possible we could be looking at a cold February the coldest since 2018, albeit with a very mild beginning the possibility is there and I don’t think tiny. El Niño winters are more backloaded on average.

[ANYWEATHER]

Scetchey cold by the end of the week..? Or ten days....

Edited February 2 by ANYWEATHER

[blizzard81]

 Don Yet again the last carrot dangled by the pub run - and that's just for the north lol. That arctic high let us down yet again. It didn't ridge down enough to create the Icelandic wedge. The wedge that was absolutely crucial for a sustained cold spell. It would have led to the relentless atlantic onslaught being diverted on a much more southerly track, thus heights lowering considerably over Iberia and southern Europe as a whole. Instead we have a half baked solution again. This leads to the atlantic ridge heading towards us, instead of Greenland. Hence the Exeter update mentioning high pressure over the UK. It's another big let down I feel. Even the EC46 has weakened that signal significantly over the last 24 hours. I personally think it's game up for this winter. March is too late, even up here. I've no interest in slushy mess and puddles. 

Edited February 3 by blizzard81

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:

You watch by this time tomorrow it Will be southern England getting the heavy snow, those southward corrections!

Please forgive me, but didn’t that become apparent a few weeks ago….

Only joking….You don’t need to answer that question

edit, it all ended in France …not again

Edited February 3 by Dancerwithwings

[WYorksWeather]

Not much difference between 12z and 18z ensembles. Depth of cold further south still very much to be decided - range from only a little below average to -10C at 850hPa. Will be crucial to determine any snow chances for the south.

Of course, at my location, current charts look quite positive. Unfortunately, we've seen this go wrong several times before. I got probably a centimetre of snow or less in the November/December spell that lasted only a few hours, and briefly saw a few flakes falling outside my window for about 10 minutes in January, that didn't settle, and I'm in a relatively favoured location compared to many. In short, I'm just not getting my hopes up this time until the event is 24 hours away or less, and there is cross-model agreement that it is happening.

[Don]

 blizzard81 I thought there was little difference between the EC46 overall pattern from yesterday to today's update and don't see how it has weakened the signal significantly?  However, it has lost the cold signal for weeks 3 and 4 and now showing average or no signal and the Metoffice 16-30 day forecast is a concern!  Possibly a little early to write off February, but you get the feeling that this winter is one of those that showed potential, but just didn't quite come together, i.e. one of those ' near miss winters'?!  I disagree March is too late for wintry weather though, as it delivered for a few days last year (IMBY) and wasn't a slush fest in an overall milder than average month!

Edited February 3 by Don

[northwestsnow]

ICON is so bad I don't even want to post it.

[RJBingham]

Control= Scorchio 

[northwestsnow]

GFS brings lots of snow for many !!

UKMO looks an upgrade too..

GFS !!

[northwestsnow]

UKMO V GFS 144

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168

GFS

[northwestsnow]

GEFS CONTROL 00Z 

Icon aside it's a morning of upgrades

 

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks interesting 168

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs turns snowy end of next week especially Friday into saturday..ukmo not having any of it...low way too far north pulling up southwesterlies..finally at 168 a glimmer of hope,as we start too see the wrap around of better 850's from the North!

Edited February 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Dennis]

Good weekend all

the first watch is for thursday next week

 

 

Edited February 3 by Dennis

[jules216]

All of the sudden EC weekly Has dropped the idea of below average temperature week 3 outside Scandinavia and GFS mean now not showing much lower heights in central Europe as other runs. Steady as we go in to mildest month of the winter,just as I said weeks ago and amazing correlation of cold Scandinavia= mild central Europe.

[jules216]

Going back to how this winter panned out so far the best analog is 2015/16.