Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Harsh Climate]

No strong Iberian heights on this run!

Anyone seen UKMO 12z? I can only see 6z

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If you accept that potential for Thursday’s snow is confined to the north, then moving on, the next phase is the surge of cold south as the o=low passes - this looks good on both GFS and GEM this afternoon.  And GFS heading for a decent finish…

Thursday into Friday is looking pretty doubtful at the moment isn't it..for snow,more likely next weekend onwards at moment?

[Allseasons-Si]

Well,...that's a dream chart

afternoon everyone

 

[Harsh Climate]

 

 Lukesluckybunc

Yeah it's looking doubtful now, still can't be written off 100% just yet though.

Edited February 3 by Harsh Climate

[feb1991blizzard]

 Allseasons-Si

Yes - you couldn't make it up, its done everything to deny us a decent cold spell for 75% of the run, the GFS is now going to give us an absolute snorter of a protracted cold spell for the rest.

[CoventryWeather]

I still don't think next week's events have been settled yet. Sure a trend north but some of the shorter range forecasts (Arpege and the WRF examples) both show a shallow low further south.. I would say these have a greater chance of getting the final solution right.

Away from that plenty to watch. This has always been the main interest and currently there's significant interest in building fairly strong heights to the north. Late Feb looking particularly interesting! 

Edited February 3 by CoventryWeather

[damianslaw]

I'd urge caution with the low pressure forecast to move in on the 8th until 48 hrs range at the earliest. When you have a cold pool of air heading south, this sets up a cold/mild boundary, the depth and dig of cold remains very uncertain, the low pressure polar front will naturally straddle the line and determine the shape and course of the low. Its a very complex set up and at this range not one we can forecast with any confidence. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ukmo at 168 saying no into next weekend. ..the low is just to far west,it doesn't move into Europe like we need it too!

Edited February 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[AO-]

 Ali1977

I think that the thing that benefits all is the shortwave moving east quicker. Then the cold air in Scandinavia is able to move South earlier. The course of the shortwave is anything but clear yet. But given the scatter in the EPS, I wouldn't be surprised that it takes untill after next weekend to deliver a cold(ish) setup. Atm Britain has a higher chance of getting snow than the mainland, albeit perhaps not on Thursday except for Scotland. Output is not improving atm. We need synoptics that are beneficial in moving the Arctic air in Scandinavia South. Obviously a northeasterly for Britain is not one for Holland. The best way is by moving the shortwaves quicker east imo. Afterwards a Scandiblock would be nice to maintain the cold air. 

[AO-]

Control much better than the operational. Details of great importance on such short notice. 

Edited February 3 by AO-

[Harsh Climate]

Latest Netweather Strat temp forecast

We go from currently

To this by 18/02

With the lag maybe the presence of it will be fully felt around 1st March.

I can see a very blocked Northern Hemisphere over these parts in March, yes perhaps too late in the day for that pristine powder snow that lasts days, but can still get some cracking snowfalls/events. 

 

Edited February 3 by Harsh Climate

[Dancerwithwings]

24 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Well,...that's a dream chart

I couldn’t agree more….Mid February is certainly looking interesting 

[Harsh Climate]

 AO-

This  is exactly why so much emphasis should be placed on a lone GFS OP run

[bluearmy]

 Harsh Climate I don’t think there will be much of a lag HC. The 12z gfs op is notable because it has a split spv segment over griceland with an upper trop ridge there.  There have been signs on recent ops that we could see a split with a left over Atlantic segment which isn’t ideal for us unless we have a strong block to our north (possible) 

id expect the trop and strat to take on the same appearance within a few days of the reversal pattern.  Of course we are currently likely seeing downwelling waves from first half January warming and if we get a notable reversal in two weeks then expect march to stay blocked  much of the time 

 

[MJB]

South of the M4 snow from the control

[AO-]

There are a lot of possibilities at t168. Details are key in determining how cold it will get and where to find snow. Both southwesterlies as Northeasterlies are possible next weekend. Afterwards snow cover is very important in how cold it will get. Getting hp over our area will be welcome once a snow cover is realized. Otherwise hp over Scandinavia has my preference. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

9 minutes ago, MJB said:

South of the M4 snow from the control

Haha will the control make it this time..looks a repeat past day 10!

[winterof79]

 Allseasons-Si

Make of that what you will

[Ali1977]

Mid to long term longs very good, Thursday to Sunday looks good for some pretty good snowfalls - regardless of what people are saying the location of these snowfalls is yet to be decided.

 

I can tell you now, if the Ops were showing snow for the south on todays runs for Thurs or Friday, people would be saying it’ll miss us and head into France (as it did a few weeks back) . So what is showing over Scotland today, for Thursday into the weekend should drop nicely south  over the next few runs

[nick sussex]

 Ali1977

Models tend to correct south when you have a block .

In this instance there’s no blocking .

We’ll see what the ECM has to offer but I think this frontal snow is looking like a far north affair at best , at least initially .

[AO-]

 winterof79

I would like to put some nuance to this post as it is the result of the calculations of GFS. We see a strong Arctic hp, but it doesn't mean that it will affect our weather. It certainly is nice to see a negative AO, and given the positive signals from background drivers it might as well affect us positively, but some caution should be taken. 

[Stuie]

 nick sussex By the weekend the jet fires up way South which helps the latter precipitation of the week (LP)

[CoventryWeather]

 nick sussex still no real consistent runs of a wedge though - several ensembles still hinting but means nothing unless one of the ops take the trend on. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Now this is what we want to see,...happening,the GEM control is crazy

and i would think the gfs control will follow...

LOL...

Edited February 3 by Allseasons-Si
Added charts

[TEITS]

I don't often say this but my word I have read some rubbish over the last few pages.

Firstly the low at the end of next week still has time to alter its shape and track. However at the moment Scotland looks more favourable to see snowfall. Remember though at the moment it looks as though everyone will turn colder with a N/NE,ly into the weekend.

Moving into the following week and virtually all output suggests a continuation of cold weather whether that's from a N or E,ly. 

A message to those who say this is normal UK winter weather in Feb. Sorry but if you look at this N Hemisphere chart from the 12Z GFS then this is more typical for April, May than Feb.

I even read the dreaded Iberian High being mentioned. My reply to that cannot be posted but instead I shall just say "Are you having a laugh"!

Much to look forward to for the rest of the month with plenty of further opportunities for snowfall. Just stop fretting about late next week. Are you expecting the world to end?