Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ali1977]

 northwestsnow indeed mate, very cold chart and likely leading to prolonged cold

[CoventryWeather]

Another trend south - this time the ECM. 

Slightly more wedgy earlier on, making the low more shallow and further south. 

I'm still expecting a further shift south, even if many are expecting the northwards trend to continue. 

I think anyone north of Birmingham should monitor this feature. 

Edited February 3 by CoventryWeather

[Ali1977]

Not taking location literally but snow showers U.K. wide possible by 192 - it’s quite unstable looking cold so should have some snowy features 

[Eagle Eye]

 Mike Poole

Yes very interesting to say the least. Good thing is that it's - VE NAM drive so should reflect back a Greenland high so could reinforce an MJO-GLAAM driving Greenland high if that were to occur. Looks to be driven around this time. 

[Ali1977]

Here it comes from the east ️

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wow this is a bit more like it from the ecm!

[feb1991blizzard]

 Harsh Climate  Ali1977  TEITS

Yes, this snowy spell just isn't happening, or is it?

[Harsh Climate]

Just as people were writing off next week, the ECM pulls a rabbit out the hat

Even Keeps us in the game regarding Thursday!

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Even Keeps us in the game regarding Thursday!

 

It was always looking cold into next weekend wasn't it!?

[CoventryWeather]

Another model that is keen on the southern track of next week's low - the Arpege. 

And I think people towards the south might be happier with this one. 

[Mike Poole]

Just seeing a subtle change around day 10 in the models tonight which could have positive ramifications.  After the low has passed, there is a tendency for the high pressure that follows it to track to a slightly higher latitude, which means that instead of the UK high which was seemingly the destination days 10-12 in recent runs, a block further north of that is now looking more likely.

[nick sussex]

 Mike Poole

God no not again . The last thing we need is for another SSW to ruin a cold spell .

Anyway not a bad ECM op although these vast changes between runs means low confidence in the detail post day 7 .

The will it won’t it frontal snow remains at least initially for the far north and Scotland on the ECM .

There does seem a strongish signal for something brewing to the east or ne .

Lets hope we can have an action packed last few weeks of February.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM giving every where snow over a period of 2/3days long time since I have seen charts like ECM tonight get the sledges out time to prepare for a very wintery period.

[LRD]

ECM is a cracker if it's cold you want. Interesting to see the clusters and ensembles later and where it sits within that. MOGREPS 6z suite was on a downward trajectory 850s-wise too (from this time next week/Sunday 11th)

Met Office longer range was underwhelming so tonight's cold model runs were unexpected. Something to watch anyway in a winter which, so far, has been as desperate as any these last 10 years

[Lukesluckybunch]

Good thing about the ecm it was good from day 7..not just day 10 which is usually the case

[jellybaby1969]

 CoventryWeather

It will end up.going through France Belgium Netherlands and Germany if it tracks further south..good news for the north any showed will be of snow in much colder air

[Jordan S]

 CoventryWeather

  I think where the Ecmwf has the low and association weather fronts ie snow /rain boundary later next week is largely close to what we’ll see now.. noticed a few mentioning how models are struggling at just a few days out with the low, I suppose to an extent in terms of exact minute details to be expected really, but the trend is the same since yesterday and indeed to a few of us for quite a few days.
 

Beyond that it still looks to turn colder for all, though perhaps not exceptionally so, but that wasn’t really on the cards. Certainly potentially cold enough for snow in most places in the following week beginning 12th as said previously but it looks to be quite a dry set up so mainly in the form of showers that do form to our north/east. We shall see, will do a more lengthy update on snow potential later this week either later this evening or tomorrow I think. 

[CoventryWeather]

Mogreps 12z 

Edited February 3 by CoventryWeather

[Ali1977]

 CoventryWeather that’s a huge upgrade for cold further south  - full support 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 29/01/2024 at 14:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Continuing trough and noteable cold across Alaska too.

On 29/01/2024 at 14:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Looking to the 2nd and latter half of February with the MJO currently being in a phase 7 for the last days of January This gives the following feedback 

I'm really liking the CFS for this period already matching really great.

January phase 7 does give a window for colder conditions from the Northeast perhaps Easterly at times.

Further excellent representation continues to frequent the expected timeframes.

 

Following on from my post here

 

"As things stand we're looking at at least two weeks of the MJO being active in the Pacific roughly January 24/25 through January 7th but the extended data is supportive ATM of a 3rd week still prominent within the Pacific Taking the progress into / nearer Mid January "

Again the CFS has performed best and my overall thoughts above are generally how it's going, there is an interesting trend over the past few days between the CFS and GEFS suggesting a significant slowing of the MJOs progression out of the Pacific, i suspect this could have a bit of the stratospheric warmings influence here and also keeps the trend of said warming to continue further beyond mid February which is already being suggested within multiple modelling.

Ignore the lines crossing the page must be erranoues data.

We'll continue seeing patterns which are favourable precursors for continuing stratospheric warming too. C3-2, C2-2 & C3-3 in particular.

Say it again

EL NINÒ

[Lincs Observation]

 Anthony Burden how many times have we been this close this winter, still days away and could still change, forgive me for been cynical but if it still shows this set up by Tuesday then my confidence will grow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 TEITS at his best.  I concur Sir…glad to have you on here Dave

 

BFTP

[northwestsnow]

EC mean looks a BIG upgrade .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 northwestsnow a ‘myriad’ of widespread snowfall events are beckoning 

 

BFTP

[mulzy]

GEFS and GEPS day 16

Well advertised by EC46 - let's see if it comes to fruition.