Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[feb1991blizzard]

Not liking either the GEM ens or GEFS, they're not bad but a definite downgrade.

 

[Spah1]

[Aiden2012]

 Spah1 ecm ?

[Ali1977]

UKMO on its own for Friday , ECM says no 

[IDO]

EC, as expected, moved towards GFS at D5:

 

[Decemberof2010]

 Spah1

Bank. Wonderful chart. Doubt it will happen but good to look at

[ANYWEATHER]

Cold rain for most with this chart........

[MattStoke]

Nice ECM for central areas.

[January Snowstorm]

Poor ECM for Friday. Ukmo on its own

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Personally I’m focused beyond Friday, ie from 10-14 Feb inwards….but am watching with interest the developments.  Living in the SE I’m not anticipating anything next week, but if my suspicions are correct, there’s some potential serious winter weather to come.  
Don’t discount that strong anomaly signal for HP to our NW

 BFTP

Edited February 4 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

 IDO i said it in my post early in the day!!i expected ecm to move to gfs and thats what has happened!!!i got a bit excited when i seen the ukmo and arpege earlier and thought just maybe ecm would be correct but looks not to be!!!ah welll lets scrape watever we can thursday because the the ecm has moved to gfs at 144 hours with pure and utter dross!!!!

[Marting]

Something holding up that stalling low pressure at 144 on ECM. from hero to trouble between 96 to 144. Will it move on at 168?

Edit, not a lot! 

Edited February 4 by Marting

[Ali1977]

North Atlantic looking good at 168, forking that block 

[IDO]

This highlights how up and down EC has been lately:

The first is the 12z, and the second is the 0z—the 12z ties in with the 0z mean and is similar to GFS and GEM 12z.  

 sheikhy Yes, if you are a gambling person (as I am), then you go with the percentages, and sadly, the 0z was a BIG outlier and very unlikely to be repeated. I was like you and hoping that the maths was wrong! As for the UKMO, look back on my posts to see my thoughts: they consistently undercut every opportunity they can. So, I am very reluctant to believe the 12z without strong support.

Edited February 4 by IDO

[Ali1977]

The UKMO could still be correct, noting the Arpege follows!!

[sheikhy]

 IDO how anyone can be positive about the gfs and ecm in the reliable timeframe this evening apart from that transient snow on thursday is beyond me!!!!!even the best looking model this evening which is ukmo is rubbish with hardly any snow!!!!!alarm bells are not even ringing anymore becuase to be fair they rang on the 18th of january which was my last real informative post lol!!!!!

[Marting]

 Ali1977 Let’s hope so. Pretty sure ECM at the top end of its run when we view in an hour 

[CoventryWeather]

Still thinking the UKMO is possibly close to the final solution. GFS is too progressive, likewise ECM. 

Perhaps a mid solution between the two. Might be the Peak Districts that benefit the most. 

[sheikhy]

Now watch the ecm all of a sudden look great again from 192 hours onward!!!only to get diluted come closer to the time!!!!at some point the dice shall obviously fall in our favour lol!!

[Mike Poole]

Not entirely sure what all the fuss is about.  ECM hasn’t followed the UKMO for sure, but at the moment, the UKMO is right at the southern end of the envelope, so it is not really a surprise.  If the UKMO has picked up on something, other models may move over the next couple runs.  Moving on to the next phase, T192:

Can only trend colder from here as a nicely positioned ridge enters the picture.

[knocker]

Not for the first time, and I'm sure it wont be the last, but I sometime wonder what the punters in here want

Edited February 4 by knocker

[Harsh Climate]

People up and down like yoyo's every run. Firstly the snow/cold chances are good, then bad, then good, then bad, then good ... Do people ever learn?

We have had a day of upgrades, nothing has changed. In fact all that has happened today is 1. There is now a small chance of snow Tuesday rather than nothing. 2. Thursdays Heavy snow is very much still on for a part of the UK, rather than nothing.. Now even as far south as Midlands now at risk! Huge upgrades there. 

Stop trying to find specifics and over analyse precipitation charts and local features 2-5 days out.

I've noticed as soon as the live members list rises in the MOD thread, so does the mass hysteria run to run .

Sit back and enjoy the ride peeps, there are no downgrades this evening, only other options being added to the 2 dozen others already on the table.

Things are moving along nicely, we are another 24 hours closer today, with Snow on the way for some and cracking eye candy late on on most models regarding the potential for a Greenland high. Seriously when are people ever happy lol. 

Edited February 4 by Harsh Climate

[swfc]

  @northwestsnowNot sure what the problem is wth the ECM. Looks pretty good unless you view it from an imby perspective Not sure why northwestsnow is on this post, sorry mate

Edited February 4 by swfc

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm finally getting it's act together..but make no mistake it was pretty poor between 120-168!

[swfc]

 Lukesluckybunch Do you mean in regard to the low not staying to the south?