Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Puppazo di Neve]

The big question is which one is correct! We should wait until tomorrow I presume!

[January Snowstorm]

As many will remember the gfs upgrade (which must be running over a year now) was very inaccurate compared to the previous mode. When the parallel was running against the op it was all over the place!! This 'all over the place' type run has continued ever since and this week is a further example!! Of course the other models are not covering themselves in glory either.

Therefore the route forward for Thursday/Friday is very unclear and the biggest guide is the Met Office seem confident! 

[Eagle Eye]

 johncam

Greenland high quite possibly there which is also supported long term by the GFS unless I haven't got the updated EC46.

[Rain All Night]

14 minutes ago, johncam said:

So looks EC46 poor again,  no high to our NW just looks our now normal default winter weather. Nothing to get excited about.

Check out this morning's ECM ensemble (which is 24 hours more recent than the EC46 you're looking at) - there're loads of easterlies in here around day 11:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=5&mode=1&ech=270

Edited February 5 by RainAllNight

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 mountain shadow which shows the lack of confidence at such short range and further chances of more adjustments .

In their update they even quote that details could well change over coming days.  

I agree with @damianslaw that it could take up to at least Wednesday before it’s settled

 

BFTP

Edited February 5 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cold Winter Night]

 johncam

EC46 (yesterday's, the most recent) has positive height anomalies NW of the UK from beginning to end.

On EPS 0z, 49 out of 51 members in the extended have pos. height anomalies to the NW. One, maybe two, could be described as "normal default winter weather."

It's not often a heavily diluted, long lead time 360h mean looks like this:

Keeping your feet on the ground is one thing, nothing wrong with a bit of caution, but let's not pretend that the extended output is not heavily leaning towards a very meridional pattern.
The very opposite of a default zonal setup.

 

[Rain All Night]

 Cold Winter Night Great minds... 

[johncam]

 RainAllNight hi , yep just looked at the lot and only a few have a Greenland high which the EC46  has been showing for a while. Still a lot showing high pressure to our south,  hopefully they are wrong. 

[Bricriu]

 January Snowstorm  This event  is not looking great for us 24 hours of rain and sleet with snow confined to high ground. I am focusing on after mid month now. If we get a proper cold spell to see out winter it will have been worth  the endless roller coaster, but if it's another letdown it will go down as one of the most disappointing  winters  in recent times given the background drivers looked very positive for a notable cold spell at some point.

[Eagle Eye]

 johncam

Greenland isn't the only high available that's good for us.

[johncam]

 Eagle Eye yep can't disagree with you. Harder though to get it in the sweet spot to deliver the cold we are all looking for. Fingers crossed we get something meaningful before winters end.

[Eagle Eye]

 johncam

Yeah, Greenland is the easiest to get cold from unless you get certain angles of Scandi high really but I don't think Winter is over yet, still got the possible SSW and about a month left.

[northwestsnow]

Looks like BBC raw is following GFS !!

Rain all the way even up here ...

[josh-weather]

GFS 06z and 00z both are warm outliers in the ensembles. The ensembles have quite a cluster of runs colder than average further north. Less so shown below for London but still the OP is way up at the top.

[northwestsnow]

EC 6Z V 0Z @90

[MJB]

As we all know many of these won't get close to panning out BUT as we get into the final furlong, blocking is still very much the form horse.

[northwestsnow]

EC 6Z is a small move towards GFS ..

The low is tilted badly at 90hrs and milder air is moving north.

[sheikhy]

Waaaay better than gfs though for sure!!!!!also the i think the low is 5mb deeper rather than it being further north otherwise would av been identical to the 00z!!!

[Djdazzle]

Do people not learn from past mistakes?

None of the models will be on the mark for later this week. GFS will move towards the rest, and the rest will move towards the GFS. It's just a question of which will move the most. This happens a little at a time, so that you think one model is backtracking, when in fact they are converging on a solution.

[northwestsnow]

 sheikhy

I think the 12z runs will be conclusive .

I'm not confident at all.

[frosty ground]

 northwestsnow struggling to see the difference to be honest 

[sheikhy]

 northwestsnow im not either mate!!!i did say gfs shall be more closer to the mark!!we had a similar situation earlier in the winter and gfs won it handsdown!!!something aint quite right with the ecm in the last few months!!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 6Z V 0Z @90

Looking more and more like a North Wales and Midlands event..I wouldn't be at all surprised though if the ecm messes about again later!

[MattStoke]

 sheikhy GFS is normally the poorest performing models in these situations. It gave me all rain back in December while other models gave me 4 inches of snow. I ended up with 4 inches of snow.

Edited February 5 by MattStoke

[Ian Ballinger]

 Lukesluckybunch All I'm forecast is heavy rain here  in North Wales