Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[phil nw.]

 Ice Day

Yes good to see.The UK/Euro ridging is in the ensemble guidance.Its a wait and see if we can get this further north.

Easterlies are always more than one simple step and often fail as we know from bitter experience.

Still we have to start somewhere and this is more positive than the dross that has been on offer recently.

[Daniel*]

UKMO definitely best of the lot heights going up and over, but I do not trust this model one jot.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gem looks promising at day 10 hp already in place..and a new surge of WAA! Problem is all the cold is stuck way out east!

[Mike Poole]

GEM is very good, in comparison to recent output.  At T240, the high is north of the UK and the retrogression pathway is on:

Much better across the models this afternoon, hopefully recent op runs have just been a bad dream…

[MJB]

This can't be a surprise, MET have been  promoting this for a while. 

Edited February 7 by MJB

[Ice Day]

The GEM at day 10 is close to very good

The GFS at the same time, whilst not as good, is a huge improvement vs this morning's dross

Upgrades from here will liven us all up again.  That said, there's a high probability that the models are overreacting again.

 

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch If the HP gets up to Greenland, we need to look N /NE  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, MJB said:

 If the HP gets up to Greenland, we need to look N /NE

Lovely trends...still waiting for ukmo 168!think it will be the best of the lot

[Mike Poole]

UKMO, GFS, GEM at T168:

Big improvement getting that WAA in the Atlantic to the west, not over the UK or to its east.  UKMO the pick in that respect.

Edited February 7 by Mike Poole

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Big improvement getting that push of heights in the Atlantic not over the UK or to its east.

Indeed, and a big improvement on the UK's 850's too

I really wasn't expecting these runs to be honest.  Remarkable turnaround

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS is going to be a stonker.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

going to be a stonker.

Again on paper it looks great feb!...where's the cold air?

[Cold Winter Night]

 Mike Poole

Glad to see operational runs finally coming to their senses at reasonable lead times, and showing what was the ensemble majority direction for days, instead of making us ensemble/cluster watchers look like complete fools.

[Froze were the Days]

 phil nw. Really? more cloud and bland non descriptive weather for days I should think - only positive I can think of is that it will be dry. Roll on Spring this Winter has been nauseous...

[frosty ground]

 feb1991blizzard

by stinker you mean day 5 is looking great or day 15 is looking great?

the word stinker can’t apply to day 15 charts

[Froze were the Days]

 frosty ground Neither day 5 or 15 is...but better than the bilge from the previous det runs, he said 'stonker' by the way.

[mountain shadow]

 feb1991blizzard Are you looking forward to a UK high then?

[feb1991blizzard]

 Lukesluckybunch

Coming down from the North in a minute.

 frosty ground

It can be a stonker as in a stonker for cold and snow - model run, doesn't mean it will verify.

[phil nw.]

 Froze were the Days

It's easy to be downbeat i guess as many of us have been disappointed this Winter but I think we need to give modeling time to see if the pattern can develop further.The ensembles are showing a pattern change towards a-AO but any easterly does not suddenly appear.

The first stage with Euro/Uk ridging is often unexciting until the high moves further north and we can get a low heights underneath.We know there is no certainty but we can only hope this comes to something before it gets too late in the season.

[AO-]

The 12h runs are better but not great. At least the output makes more sense so that's a start. Now the only problem is to get the cold in and the only way to that is a northerly into Scandinavia followed by a Northeasterly. 

[Ali1977]

If we are lucky we can get the right Synoptics around 20 Feb, still time for some severe stuff before the sun really comes into play early March 

[sebastiaan1973]

A split SSW.

[feb1991blizzard]

BOOM!

 

Edited February 7 by feb1991blizzard

[Lukesluckybunch]

Not a bad mean!

[Penguin16]

Not really sure what the excitement is about regarding FI.