Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Jason M]

 TEITS  I think you mean 'eject SE'. At least I hope you do 

[jamesthemonkeh]

There seems to be quite a shift away from cold and dry, to mild/very mild and wet over the last day or so, in the modelling.  Caused by what?

    

Even the ECM which may show colder air for next weekend, seems to suggest to me that the Atlantic is ready to come back with those uber-mild south-westerlies.

Do I remember correctly that SSW responses are often initially westerly-driven, until the easterlies/northerlies drip down into our level?

[ANYWEATHER]

22 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It is still the leader.  The verification stats show the ECM first, UKMO second.  Of course, the GFS, ICON, and GEM have the occasional victory, but overall, the Euro's still lead the way, but are not infallible.

Perhaps the stats will change , because the ecm is not the player it was...

[Lukesluckybunch]

Really poor 6z developing..cold air getting blown out of Scandi even!

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch Improvement on the 0z 

[Met4Cast]

It’s perhaps quite telling that despite a huge amount of spread on the EPS, only 1 or 2 ensembles suggest the -10C isotherm. There is a complete lack of a signal for deeper cold within the model suites. 

[TEITS]

 Jason M Oops yes I do. Obviously getting over excited at the output.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs about to get interesting into day 9?

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

Improvement on the 0z 

Slightly..but still in a straight westerly!

[TEITS]

 Met4Cast All that highlights to me is after the 15th Feb we have huge scatter.

I'm very much keeping an open mind for the rest of this month. I keep reading the teleconnection signals are disappointing but some members are forgetting a very simple fact about this time of year. This is whatever the signals may or may not suggest, a cold spell and high latitude blocking is always more likely in Feb, March than Dec, Jan.

[Ice Day]

GFS at day 9 is now starting to look like the day 9 ECM, albeit a tad slower

 

[nick sussex]

The models seem to be converging on the overall pattern .

So that small wedge to the nw , low to the east with a shortwave running east across the UK .

The upstream troughing ejects eastwards and then we see heights lifting to the ne and high pressure moving into the Arctic from the Pacific side .

Theres a chance we could see a change to colder conditions for the last third of the month .

Surely something must go right ! 

[Mike Poole]

Lift off at day 10 on the GFS 6z.  And west of the UK, just.

Edited February 9 by Mike Poole

[joggs]

 bluearmy she's hardly parted this winter....

[Lampostwatcher]

Really liking the ECM and gfs 6z

For mid month onwards could we be seeing what the met have been banging on about for a while now ❄🌨

[Johnp]

53 minutes ago, TEITS said:

We need these to ejaculate SE

Anyway, a much improved 6z with cold north easterlies from day 10.  Let the rollercoaster start again.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs getting going at 270...perfect position of the hp for the uk!centre of the high between Iceland norway

Edited February 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[syed2878]

 blizzard81  I know the ECM and what is showing today is 2 lot of peoples liking. However, this winter has not covered its self in glory. Although it’s good continuity from last night, I have noticed with ECM it for this winter. Always manages to blow up at the last minute T90 6T 120. So anything the ETM showing on today’s runs, I would take it with a huge peach of salt The GFS has a habit of blowing up Atlantic laws however, this winter, I think it performed quite well.

[Daniel*]

Great the timeframe less great!

[Midlands Ice Age]

 ANYWEATHER  Lukesluckybunch

If I may add my twopenny worth here.

None of the models have behaved at all well recently (and this despite the so-called return of the westerlies).

Your  claim that the GFS has performed better is only true for our little area of the globe.

It had the incoming low about 100 - 150 miles further north than most of the others at the last  weekend.

It was 'correct' - as if we had seen it a bit further south we would have seen the snowfall start at around London (M4?) instead of around Burton on Trent. So the 'other models were about 150 miles too far south. (on this occasion). However, think back to the 2 other occasions this winter when we were in with a shout of snowfall.. The GFS was too far north by a long way, and all the others were also, but not by so much!!

However....     how can you possibly think that the GFS is more accurate?...    since it then stopped the low off NW Scotland and then sent it packing back to Greenland with all the non-snow loving people screaming  ( on here ) that we are missing out on spring this year and leaping straight into Summer,  It was out by 2000 miles in that projection, yet that is being ignored.

So this year has been 'bad' for all of the  models. In these atmospheric weather situations, with the constant possibilities of 'warmings' constantly being shown means that  none of the models can be trusted, until you look out the window.

Lets face it that any  future expected warming in the stratosphere is not handled at all well by any of the models! But they keep on trying, and no doubt that they will get better.

This to me looks to be the elephant in the modelling room, and not the inaccuracies of any particular model.

So this year has been 'bad' for all of the  models. It is almost back to the situation of the pre global model era, when we all knew what would happen - if we looked out the window.

In fact it quite takes me back to the 1960's!!!!

MIA

[Gowon]

The difference between the GFS runs:

[Gowon]

He he! Check out the warm sector through Peterborough :

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The difference between the GFS runs:

We swap the dartboard low..for Icelandic high!

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

he! Check out the warm sector through Peterborough :

Damn!wouldn't want to be in that zone!

[Froze were the Days]

 Gowon and it's always the 06z bringing the fun...what would we do without it?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 TEITS made me laugh when I read it Dave.  

Going forward as the 06z shows I think a quick switch will occur and models generally aren’t picking up on it yet.  The difference between 0z and 06z is shining example….vastly different

 

BFTP

[StretfordEnd1996]

 Daniel* Haha yes the waiting patience game - until we all lose patience but by then the cold has disappeared by then probably  

To be fair though, while the majority of the GFS eye candy in the 6z is indeed beyond D10, it very much begins and sets up before then, as per recent ECM, GEM -

ECM +228 

 
GFS 


Not too dissimilar at all. But this is still so far out - and I just get the feeling that HP is such a delicate little sector it may be so easily prone to moving elsewhere and less favourable for a colder spell. But the foundations are there on both the ECM and GFS at face value, and NOT at D10 or beyond, always a good sign. We need to see some consistency now. ~

At D10 the ECM shows the heights decreasing slightly already - not of a particular concern to me at this stage (as even getting them in place in the first place is the main concern for now). 

 

But, into FI beyond D10 and the GFS really does crack open the lagers - in a pattern which is total opposite to its more recent runs in the last few days, with HP eventually sitting to our N/NW throughout a huge portion of the rest of the run, only shrinking/flattening ever so slowly - and therefore gives us some just for fun eye candy. It's not the most extreme El'ly in the world but those cold uppers hold on throughout the whole of that second week.

 

 

The latter charts above show those cold uppers still holding on even after the heights have somewhat dispersed. 

 

All just eye candy at the moment - but, within D10 we at least do have some cross-model agreement for some sort of push of heights to our NW/N - this is the foundation, quite what happens after is anyone's guess - and as I said it all feels a bit delicate and prone to moving elsewhere - but GFS 6z I feel may go down as being one of the best runs in this chase, (in FI)..