Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[mulzy]

 TEITS This is the winter we can say the only background signal of note is AGW.  Everything else is akin to reading tea leaves. 

[northwestsnow]

 mulzy bang on .

One of the reasons I would never ever dismiss the tremendous work the telecommunications experts do in their field.

However, CC is the elephant and one can't help but wonder if background drivers are unable to overcome the warm SSTS in the Atlantic ( stronger jet).

[chrisnoy]

 northwestsnow Is there an abbreviation list somewhere for things like CC and AGW?

I know some things but not others...learning here.

Thanks 

[Dennis]

SSW signals around 19-23

[northwestsnow]

 chrisnoy sorry Chris CC climate change 

[Mcconnor8]

 chrisnoy

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) | Causes, Effects, & Strategies

WWW.CARBONCOLLECTIVE.CO

---

This article introduces anthropogenic global warming - what causes it, how we're causing it, and why it's important to mitigate climate change.

 

[chrisnoy]

 northwestsnow Thanks ! Should have guessed that one.

[Lukesluckybunch]

The met now back in the cold train to some extent..in there long range!

Edited February 12 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Jordan S]

A transition to more settled conditions widely look to still take place Friday/Saturday but a low and it’s associated weather fronts either delays or interrupts the dry process and could produce heavy slow moving frontal rain over some areas of the UK before fizzling out into next week..

Shortish summary..

Largely anticyclonic conditions likely developing for central,southern and eastern areas in particular for the first half of next week, slightly more unsettled weather encroaching western and possibly northwestern part’s as week goes on, especially for Ireland/Northern Ireland at first, not too dissimilar to previous outlook.

End of next week onwards to near or end of February, reiterating my previous 2 updates to an extent but in a little more detail, but most likely scenario being moderate / strong northwesterly winds taking hold widely, especially for northwest UK bringing wintry showers, rain showers in south but also drier here more so than north generally, and near normal temperatures in the south at first with high pressure close to the southwest.

This high or highs around the vicinity then look like amplifying to our west on occasion in the final few days of February, potentially bringing slightly colder than average temperatures in the south aswell with showers possibly turning wintry in south. Average to slightly colder than average in north throughout with air perhaps sourced from further to our north late on, Highest risk of persistent rainfall at the end of February being for southern and western areas as lows are more likely to take southerly tracks, this will raise snowfall risk on the northern boundary as the boundary meets the northwesterly flow, mainly on high ground though perhaps not exclusively so late on along with increased risk of northwesterly gales in places.

Ofcourse this is a lot of detail for something that is 2 weeks away but reasonable confidence in these sort of conditions occurring. 

[Dennis]

split Vortex signs late Febr 

[Dennis]

interesting on NOAA HP position

[Nick2373]

 

The trend for something colder still showing on the gefs from the 22nd to 27th five days who knows but at least its still there, i should imaging there will be some towels picked from the floor if this trend continues. What impact the SSW Will have is anyone's guess but interesting to say the least.  

[Dennis]

a big MJO change today

4-5 was yesterday 

[jules216]

 mulzy No its not. Who told you that background signals were good? This is most bizzare presumption. Just look at best matching Februaries - 1998 and 2007 both were strong east based EL Ninos. From where did this favorable background falacy originate? When was last good winter under strong,nearly super Nino? I see these 2015/16, 2006/07, 1997/98, 1982/83, 1972/73 etc. Tell me how are these favorable background signals if in All those Európe suffered mild eternity in winter. 

[RJBingham]

A brief North westerly way out in FI, not particularly cold though.

  

[bluearmy]

The gfs ops are not interested in quick downwelling of the reversal wave beyond 100hpa (and that’s towards the pole) 

so whilst we see the strat pattern trying to imprint into the trop in the form of the scandi trough, we wouldn’t expect to see any drastic impression into the trop of reverse flow away from the ongoing neg AO which is predicted to trend towards neutral post warming. You’d deduce that last weeks output was generally seeing that reversal wave headed down to lower latitudes and perhaps below 100hpa.  It still seems likely that we get a split in the mid strat - unless we see that becoming wider and more sustained, we’d probably be better off with a straight displacement over scandi which would probably have allowed a proper Atlantic height rise to manifest.  Could be argued that the strat reversal pattern has screwed up a promising trop pattern again  and pushed things back 10 days or so. (At least) 

[cheeky_monkey]

 jules216 February 1983 was cold and snowy in the UK ..other than that getting a cold month with a strong El Nino was always going to be a big ask

[North-Easterly Blast]

 jules216 From what I know, no strong anomaly either way for the ENSO has ever co-incided with a cold winter as a whole, though in terms of cold weather in the UK, one strong El Nino did co-incide with a cold winter month (Feb 1983), and one strong La Nina did co-incide with the freezing December of 2010, but other than that, not a lot of cold weather has occurred in the UK when the ENSO anomaly has been strong either way.

Edited February 12 by North-Easterly Blast

[jules216]

 North-Easterly Blast Well thats about it for Slovakia too, only february 1983 was okay. With All other strong Ninos we had about 7-10 days spell of Snow and cold sometimes 2. That is what happened this winter too. What did verify very well that in those strong Ninos there was always a snap of Snow in november and exactly this has happened this winter too. So basically background signals verified very well,sadly.

[jules216]

 cheeky_monkey yes and  I am shaking my head when I read about positive background signals. Because they were never really there,throw in the super strong  +IOD in the mix and it looks even worse. Also re. the SSW I would reccomend in future to print this out and stick on the wall for everybody. The regimes around SSW and what usually followed. You Can follow the lag after this winter SSW which onset correlated with established -NAO and you Can see that with further lag there is more and more yellow/Orange in Europe. Textbook stuff really.

[Dennis]

newest  AO ideas 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Wanted to do a follow On from my post here as it carries importance why we are seeing the 500hpa evolutions upcoming.

 

''We might have a brief re entry of phase 6 during week 1 of February though there is no complete agreement for this, however it's relatively similar to the setups currently materialising should it occur."

This is an occasion where the MJO Obs are of great value as there can be differences when solely focusing on the model predictions and I do tend to trust the OBS in these situations.

We see that we did briefly go into phase 6 in February week 1

Very much in line with expectations with the typical El Ninò storm track which extends into the Atlantic this in turn will see further Rossby Wave Breaks which have potential to bring flash flooding as the wave break low forms and further significant snow in multiple countries. 

 

The positive NAO also playing into these setups nicely, these are typical temperatures with a positive NAO but give fairly good representation of the positions of low and high pressure 

This also shows the strong ridging and high pressure developments into the UK which connects into the negative PNA with further developments of high pressure to the East of USA and the Maritimes.

[Dennis]

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Apart from portugal..the UK is the mildest spot at day 8 gfs!really hope it's got this wrong

[nick sussex]

At the moment it looks like another ECM UKMO fail .

Together with the GEM it looks like the GFS was more correct .

The outputs look like treading water and now apparently the SSW could have ruined another more promising trop pattern .

It seems like heads you lose tails you lose .