Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Uncertainty]

The upcoming trough disruption against rising heights to the NE is a scenario the modelling typically struggles with. Whilst this time round is no different, the ensembles have actually been rather consistent with their idea of a negatively titled trough and the U.K. in a se wind on the periphery of the high. However, this does feel like one of the few scenarios where upgrades to the strength of the high to the Ne are plausible. 
 

So here’s the UKMO, minibeast?

GEM also has an upgraded scandi high

leaving the gfs continuing  with its encroaching sw low?

The gfs represents the last few days mean pretty well, but the others are the upgrade paths that seem increasingly plausible.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

unless uppers are at -8/9. 

-8 uppers in South at 120

[CoventryWeather]

 Lukesluckybunch I would say marginal.. others would probably be better at analysing that though. Let's see what the end of the UKV will show later. 

[danthetan]

 Lukesluckybunch correct and will be more than enough, people have seen snow last few days with -4 @ 850hpa hills of pembrokeshire included right on the coast. Its only 5 days away

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, danthetan said:

correct and will be more than enough, people have seen snow last few days with -4 @ 850hpa hills of pembrokeshire included right on the coast. Its only 5 days away

Let's hope it's absolutely called it right..the model has been disappointing recently

[Lukesluckybunch]

Serious cold to the east!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Upper SPV is gorgeously split now - looking more and more like a showery cold late March / Early April with a biting cold wind.

[January Snowstorm]

Ukmo is more than cold enough to produce the goods!! Remember dews are low from the East. All at 144hrs too! Important ecm later, but as I said last night my gut instinct is this setup has potential for last minute upgrades. I personally think a cracking ecm could be on the cards.. 

Yes it's March and the drip drip would follow, but afterall snow is  

Edited March 2 by January Snowstorm

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo does turn a bit messy by day 7..but looking very interesting here..!that hp is in the absolute perfect position!

Edited March 2 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[nick sussex]

The last time we were chasing a cold pool from the east the ECM was awful and really was very slow to develop that and bring it into the UK . It was one of its worst performances of the winter .

In terms of the overall pattern it’s of course frustrating that this more interesting set up appears in March when we’ve had to endure a woeful February .

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Let's not forget nick the ukmo got it horribly wrong also..in the period you are referring too! 

[Neilsouth]

 nick sussex Latest

Weather for the Week Ahead

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Becoming less cold and wet over the next few days. Tomasz Schafernaker has the details.

 showing the charts for this upcoming week into next, saying that this easterly wont be a cold one, it will be a mild easterly. It will also topple over us with air coming from spain. Make of that what you will. UKMO is used by the met office? BBC GFS?

[nick sussex]

 Lukesluckybunch

This is the January spell we’re talking about . The ECM was struggling even within T72 hrs .

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This is the January spell we’re talking about . The ECM was struggling even within T72 hrs .

 

I think so nick..I just remember a few weeks back..the best two performing models got it very wrong!

[sunnijim]

 nick sussex There has been a few notable snow events that have lasted  in my lifetime in early to mid March. ( just reached my half  century on the planet)

Twice around the timeframe on offer ( second week of  March) once in the third week ( 2018 mini beast)

By lasting, I  mean snow sticking on the South Coast and not melting by day.

We really are in a last chance saloon, and absolutely everything has to go right in terms  of an imported cold pool to avoid the repeats of half baked wintry weather that the Winter will be remembered for,n the South at least.

Funny time March, one eye on models looking for the first sniff of warmth and half a foot in the convective discussion!

Edited March 2 by sunnijim

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

( just reached my century on the planet)

You are 100?!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm and ukmo already very different at 96!!

[sunnijim]

 Rain All Night  half century.

Will edit

[ANYWEATHER]

Gfs gives us an olive branch of a drying trend across the nation.  Iberia gets cold and Noahs Ark deluge with plenty of snow for the mountains. ......

[January Snowstorm]

Ecm not great in the mid term but looks like a good improvement at 192hrs

But wait a while, is that the beast lurking at 216hrs!!

Perfect angle for deep cold!!

 

Edited March 2 by January Snowstorm

[Lukesluckybunch]

Well ecm..took a while to get going,but here at day 9!

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Perfect angle for deep cold!!

Very cold in the north!

[Metwatch]

6 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

another attempt late March/early April but honestly but that point we'd need a very direct northerly to produce, an easterly at that time of year is very unlikely to cut it. 

Easterlies and especially north easterlies are typically the directions which has the potential to bring the coldest airmass and so surface temperatures during early to mid spring rather than a northerly. There are plenty of examples out there but the most notable one I can think of for April is early April 1911 and mid April 1966 pre warming era. Easterly - to north easterlies are much cloudier compared to direct northerlies such as early April 2021 which also keep daytime temperatures much lower.

 

For late March, 2013 a well known good example. Mini beast or BFTE 2 mid March 2018 also

Edited March 2 by Metwatch

[Daniel*]

The day 7 chart from ECM 12z would have caused great excitement in middle of winter. Great positioned block, Atlantic being undercut. There clearly is potential for something wintry into second week of March but northern UK most favoured. 

[feb1991blizzard]

 Neilsouth

Here comes the Shafernaker run.

240

Edited March 2 by feb1991blizzard

[January Snowstorm]

Is that another Boom from the ecm at 240hrs!!!  

Jokes aside it all begins in the reliable timefrane