Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[RJBingham]

April 

[Penrith Snow]

GFS has a much improved FI this morning with a strong April UK High but it doesn't save Easter which is still signalled to be wet, windy and mild.

ECM slightly better with the low further west and the UK under a more southerly influence so not as wet and relatively warm especially in the SE.

London and the SE are still in with a chance of a reasonable Easter but the rest of the UK looks poor and I pity anyone who has paid top dollar for a hotel in Cornwall over Easter.

Andy

Edited March 22 by Penrith Snow

[Jordan S]

On 18/03/2024 at 11:38, Jordan S said:

Temperatures around or slightly below average overall in the south is favoured but could see slightly warmer air clipping the east/southeast for the Easter Period, this is a very consistent possibility in my recent posts but precise timeframes being different, but with how unsettled it’s likely to be, it may not be of much benefit with a large amount of cloud possible.

Ecmwf showing the slightly warmer air signal attempting to move into the south though it’s very unsettled as expected so just slightly warmer rain  

On 15/03/2024 at 19:58, Jordan S said:

Could be dealing with very slow moving fronts parked over UK, as stubborn heights may reside over central/Northern Europe for a time, then that weakening into first week of April with a possible drying trend for a time in the north and northwest, and continued unsettled south/east UK though with winds east/northeast certainly possible for a time.

This drier northwest UK likelihood I mentioned also certainly still looking a decent possibility with higher pressure trying to move into northwestern areas as we go through the first week of April but central/southern and southeastern areas still likely to remain more unsettled and even in the north, probably not completely dry atm. The drier signal I still believe is slightly more likely than not through the second week of April more widely atleast for a good few days with more sunshine than we’ve been use to although probably not warm at first… We will see.

[Rain All Night]

10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)

The ECM solution remains just that little bit less miserable for us.

12z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)

The height rises late in these runs are starting to border on interesting.

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 29th (day 7)

Solutions with the low activity further south (though not "interestingly" far south) do continue to appear, this time on the GFS.

0z ensemble means, out to Sat 6th (day 15)

I want to see those higher mean heights coming a little bit closer to day 10 in subsequent runs please.

Edited March 22 by Rain All Night

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Frigid I'm going camping and hiking in the Yorkshire Dales that weekend with a friend! Should be interesting if that comes off! Be good to have something crisp and clear...maybe snow too.

Cold and rainy though. Nope 

[jmp223]

Depending on the severity of rapid cyclogenesis and its ultimate track, this low for next week looks monstrous.

 

 

 

Edited March 22 by jmp223
Add image.

[damianslaw]

 jmp223 Pity its not a high instead, a broad trough taking up much of central and east atlantic. Could be a very slow mover. 

[jmp223]

 damianslaw I know! The misery continues...

[WYorksWeather]

Been very busy this week and am away most of the weekend, so probably a lot fewer posts than usual from me this week.

GFS 12z again dangling the carrot of something a little more settled towards the end of the run. But before that, we're in the washing machine on spin from day 3 to day 10 - a thoroughly miserable period of weather ahead for most.

Day 3:

Day 5:

Day 7:

Day 9:

Beyond day 10, we have again a signal to throw up a ridge just out to our west, which at times is close enough to influence the UK. Charts for days 11, 13 and 15 below.

I think the key to all this as with everything is small margins on a global scale. This ridge doesn't exist yet, and very small differences from a global perspective will make a difference. A couple of hundred miles east and that ridge will deliver us a reasonably prolonged dry spell. Equivalent movement to the west though and it'll just be yet more wet weather to come.

[stodge]

Evening all

Still a lot to be resolved about next week's LP and frankly FI starts as early as Tuesday as there's a lot of uncertainty as to whether the LP will sit out just to the west of us or drop more or less right over southern Britain.

To be fair, the net effect is much the same - rain, showers, more rain, more showers. Can we rule out thunderstorms if we get a more S'ly flow? I suspect not. Can we rule out snow on northern mountains if we get a more E'ly flow? I suspect not.

Longer term, ECM 12Z OP again goes its own way to an extent bult the general trend seems to be for the LP to fill more or less in situ and for heights to build from both the west and the north. Will we get an E'ly or N'ly in the first half of April? To quote Mr Tom Jones "It's not unusual" and both are modelled on the 12Z synoptic evolution. A high amplitude MJO in phase 8/1 certainly suggests we 'll see our airflow sourced from one of those directions and the northern blocking, so often a feature of early spring, is much in evidence with GFS, not for the first run of late, offering a potent N'ly for the first weekend of April and as we know these can bring considerable accumulations of snow for high ground.

The rainfall (or might that be snowfall?) numbers look horrendous for northern Scotland this evening but perhaps not quite as bad for southern and western England. Loks like there could be quite a respectable fall of snow for Highland and parts of Grampian midweek coming.

[northwestsnow]

It just goes on and on..

as if we havent had enough garbage since what, October ?

GW inspired Atlantic ssts are going to give us the wettest climate in the NH,NW England in particular is just horrific.. 

[DTHFCJ]

 northwestsnow It's got to break at some point I have to admit I've a really good feeling that as April moves along the weather will cheer up and lead onto a cracking summer,as everyone knows it's been wet for months we are due a dry spell and fingers crossed it's June July and August.

[northwestsnow]

 DTHFCJ let's hope you are right

 

[raz.org.rain]

 DTHFCJ funnily enough I've just been reading up about the freshwater anomalies in the North Atlantic and how it promotes hotter and drier summers in Northern Europe à la 2018 and 2022. A lot of melt occurred in 2023 so it's expected that another cold blob will form at some point, so we could very well be in for a run of hot and dry summers.

[damianslaw]

This March likely to end up a milder slightly drier version of last March which was exceptionally wet. The mean pressure charts will paint a picture of a consistent low mb over the UK with barely any high pressure. Whilst March is not renowned for being prednominantly settled, on average its more settled than many other months including August (NW perspective)..believe me we don't ask for much here. April and May on average tend to be the driest and settled months in the NW, from a lakeland locale perspective unsettled weeks from here on in through to June eat into our 'dry window' and unnerve me somewhat in this regard. 

Back to the outlook, a variation on something either mild and wet or average temp and wet, not inspiring me in the slightest.

Longer term, continued signal for strong heights to our NW with the low painfully slow in filling in situ.

 

Edited March 22 by damianslaw

[KTtom]

The 300 hrs chart that was posted and ridiculed is now at 120 and is as close to identical as you can get. Goes to show, when the signal is strong enough the gfs is quite capable of picking up thenpattern over 10 days away, just need to look for consistancy over run to run and seperate a trend from a rogue run. Anyway, UKMO 120.. Atlantic low boxed in over the UK, as posted above its then a case of watching it fill...slowly.

[Uncertainty]

Both gem and ec Ops going down the big block to the nw scenario

Both still manage to be wet though (obviously).

As has been the case for, well, ever, it’s too far Nw to actually bring a cold Ne type instead we get trapped between that high and the ever present se euro high. Something about the Atlantic / solar / SST global setup must be stacking the cards in favour of this kind of blocking. It’s completely useless for us unless you like above average cloud, rain and moaning on this thread.
 

I have found a little smidgen of hope/cope on the GEFS.

Dry weather / spring could be a mere 300 hours away.

If I was a squirrel I would carry on hibernating till then.

[Penrith Snow]

If youhave woken up in a bad mood don't look at this mornings GFS! Yesterday's signal for a drier spell in April has vanished, instead we have a strong ridge across Iberia and the UK under a strong zonal flow.

ECM brings misery in a different form with a channel low, northern blocking and -10c uppers into Scotland by day 10.

The unsettled Easter is all but nailed on with any warmer spell in the SE receding as the low pressure is now likely to be further east than modelled by ECM a few days ago.

My advice is stay at home Easter, put the central heating on and do some decorating 

Andy

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 DTHFCJ Your optimism has a tragic tinge to it. 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM and GEM 216 to 240hrs showing Greenland high with some very worrying temperatures for spring on the horizon if these. Charts were to come to fruition.In the meantime some chilly feeling days ahead after a mild period in March.

 

[damianslaw]

ECM and UKMO show the trough inching further east in the days ahead, with strong heights to the NW.. GFS has shown this theme for quite a fun runs, all eyes on how far south it sinks, I expect it to be 'boxed' in so to speak thanks to stronger heights to our SE.. a slow sinking trough on a SE trajectory more likely direction of travel, possibly replaced with a drier feed sourced from a chilly source, but not in time to save Easter unfortunately. It is a very poor outlook. 

Edited March 23 by damianslaw

[joggs]

God,is there ever gonna be any let up with this awful weather?.

Vile output all the way.

We have got to be cursed.

Edited March 23 by joggs

[johncam]

GFS 06 has the lows further north than other models,  still fairly wet for all though 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Where's my snowy Easter?! ... I'ld take it ...

[Rain All Night]

On 22/03/2024 at 11:12, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 29th (day 7)

Solutions with the low activity further south (though not "interestingly" far south) do continue to appear, this time on the GFS.

0z ensemble means, out to Sat 6th (day 15)

I want to see those higher mean heights coming a little bit closer to day 10 in subsequent runs please.

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)

The last week of March will be pure synoptic tedium...

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)

...but there are encouraging signs of Atlantic high pressure offering to change the game from the very beginning of April, which is now less than 10 days away.

Edited March 23 by Rain All Night