Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Bobd29]

 *Stormforce~beka* anything other than this interminable rain….but prefer some warm dry sunshine now please.

[feb1991blizzard]

Absolute corker coming up here. look at the airmass to our North!

[andymusic]

GFS 12z (and this has been a feature on couple of op runs) is convinced winter will arrive just after Easter

Edited March 23 by andymusic

[Lee Notts]

It all feels a bit 2008

[damianslaw]

 Lee Notts More April 1998, incidentally the winter of 97-98 was very similiar to 23-24, a strong el nino one. First half of April was cold cyclonic with northerly influence..

[stodge]

Evening all

Still some questions to be answered about the trough this week. The first LP moves SE towards the SW approaches and then a second more vigorous feature follows to create a quite intense LP but where? Some models keep it to the west - others have it directly over the British Isles and even at T+72 we're still struggling for some form of clarity.

The post-Easter evolution seems to have the LP filling in situ and then a push of heights from the NW though to be fair that's not universally the case - 12Z GFS Control goes in a different direction - but there's little sign of any prolonged dry weather and to be honest our best prospect looks to be strong northern blocking.

The 12Z GFS OP rainfall accumulations don't look promising either with the NE of England joining the rain fest this evening.

[Bogman]

 feb1991blizzard Lovely. Too late now, looking for warmth. My old bones need to dry out and get warm. 

[Rain All Night]

9 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)

The last week of March will be pure synoptic tedium...

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)

...but there are encouraging signs of Atlantic high pressure offering to change the game from the very beginning of April, which is now less than 10 days away.

12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)

12z/18z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)

Very encouraging signals for Atlantic blocking to commence at the beginning of April, with only GEFS refusing to commit.

[Cambrian]

Hats off to the models. They had picked up on the deepening trough in the nearby Atlantic on the run-up to Easter about a week ago. Not a great outcome in terms of the weather, but the UK and Ireland in the box seat for observing some industrious cyclogenesis over the next 4 days, here on the 0z ECM op.

Interesting to see the two packets of low heights dropping out of northeast Canada, the second one really packing a punch and deepening the low pressure to around 965mb, as it spins around nearby giving us all a good wallop, centred to the northwest of Ireland by Thursday. 

The 0z ECM mean anomaly chart for day 5, Good Friday, shows the problem for the Easter holiday in the form of the trapped trough, held firmly in place for several days by a bank of heights pushing up over the western half of the Atlantic and the other bank stubbornly holding on over the eastern half of Europe. 

 

The western Atlantic heights look to ultimately prove the stronger, migrating north to Greenland by day 10, squeezing the trough to the north through the Norwegian Sea as the eastern European heights get slowly nudged into Russia, allowing the surface low to move through to Germany, bringing the UK and Ireland into a northeasterly flow. 

 

So looking like we’ll eventually get rid of the poorly timed unsettled spell for something a bit drier and chillier. Yes, hats off to the models but I’ll definitely be keeping my hat on.

 

At this time of the year in particular, with the full range of weather that the spring can offer, the choice of hat is indeed a valuable indicator of how it’s going. Clearly far too early for the time being to venture to the apparel shown on the left, looks like I’ll be sticking with my reliably functional fisherman’s beanie for now. Have a great day. 

Edited March 24 by Cambrian

[damianslaw]

Quiet in here... sensing many are wanting something drier, warmer and sunnier than currently on offer, hence lack of posts.

From a weather enthusiast's perspective, the outlook is quite interesting, certainly not standard synoptic fayre, as offten the case hereon through to June, when cyclonic, northerly, easterly airstreams tend to show their hand more than any other part of the year.

In the short term, all models are aligning the deep trough just to our west, throwing in bouts of wind and rain, cool in the north, rather mild further south with more of a S/SW flow but won't feel pleasant in the wind, rain and cloud.

As we approach the 4 day easter period, more uncertainty finer details, but there continues to be a strong signal for heights to develop robustly to our north/north west, shunting the trough east after a slowly filling low, jet pulled south, chillier but drier air feeding in but perhaps too late to save most of the easter period. ECM showing a cold/snow lovers dream at least a month too late, long drawn easterlies from a cold source.. ah April and all its fickleness, the month that delivers perfect  synoptics for winter cold fanatics, but all too late!

Edited March 24 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

perfect  synoptics for winter cold fanatics, but all too late!

Much like January this year… but that just turned out bone dry, bright and chilly.

[minus10]

 

Well week to 10 days of grotty or interesting weather coming up...depending on your opinion...certainly potential for some vigourous convection should the stronger sun show itself..actually feels quite warm out of the wind in the sun...

..any evidence of northern blocking becoming well established as we go into April?..

Well...favourable MJO...fairy amplified phase 7 and 8..

...and coming to the end of a major SSW..

...even after recovery vortex remains weak at 10hpa..

..will these translate into that northern blocking..?

..Certainly initially blocking looks to take hold to the north west..however what about longer term well into April..?

GEFS 0z doesnt think so...

...if anything higher than average heights to the south being modelled..

...of course looking longer ahead is always  fraught with risk however if this were to be correct ()  then maybe we can look forward to the weather becoming a bit warmer and drier as we go deeper into April..

2m temp anoms warming up...

...however still a lot of rain to get through by the looks of it according to GEFS 0z ..

...if anything the eps is slightly colder on the mean 850s into April compared to Gefs..

 

..so while not the best from a dry warmer perspective there perhaps is a bit of hope on the horizon...according to the Gefs.....will need to keep a watch on that blocking response to see if, when and where it sets up as that is crucial....

@Cambrian...i think i will continue to be wearing my gardening beanie for now...looks better than my sun protector anyway !

 

 

 

[Cloud 10]

Fair bit of snow for Scottish hills Monday/Tuesday with warnings issued.

 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS firming up on northern blocking with April looking more like January weather very disappointing after a long depressive winter with lots of cloud and rain.

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)

12z/18z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)

Very encouraging signals for Atlantic blocking to commence at the beginning of April, with only GEFS refusing to commit.

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sun 31st (day 7)

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 8th (day 15)

Everyone sees colder and perhaps drier weather after Easter, but views are starting to differ beyond that.

[Sherry]

The GFS 12z is what we deserve to get! Expected to be right at the top of the ensembles 

[TwisterGirl81]

Some eye candy for those of us who are sun and warmth starved on the latest gfs, hopefully our luck is about to change in April, certainly deserve it.

[minus10]

 Sherry yes...at the top...

...large uncertainty by then though, however the mean is somewhat higher so maybe the op is leading the way...

[Lincs Observation]

 TwisterGirl81 yes indeed here in Lincolnshire it has been a stunning day and warm to boot, even though the temp maxed out at a lowly 12oC it felt very pleasant, we are turning a corner now as we move toward summer, so regardless of snowy charts or more rain I think as Sam Cooke sang a change is a coming

[Sherry]

 minus10 yeah good to see a few of the members increase in that direction I suppose 

[CoventryWeather]

 minus10 it was only a matter of time that the OP would show a run like that - the GEFS ensembles consistently showing ridging into the UK and Europe at around 300hrs (5/6th of April). The others not interested but the GEFS ensembles have been pretty good lately of leading trends. Let's see what the clusters show on tonight's ECM. 

[stodge]

Evening all

While those wanting sunshine and warmth have latched on to the GFS 12Z OP and Control runs like a drowning person to a lifebelt, the fact is GFS is on its own currently. It may have correctly spotted a trend and kudos if it has but it's not a trend the other models are seeing yet.

The next few days are now getting resolved with the LP deepening as it moves SE to the southwest of the British Isles by midweek and then withdrawing west as the Easter long weekend begins bringing in a mild SW'ly airflow but an unsettled and unstable airflow with showers or longer spells of rain and I suspect the odd t'storm can't be ruled out.

By next Monday, the start of April, the LP is starting to fill and sink south but as heights rise to the north west from Greenland, the LP reinvigorates slightly and comes back NE across south east England as a NE'ly develops. Many of the models then see a N'ly setting up between the Scandinavian trough and heights over Greenland.

GFS offers a different synoptic evolution once we get past Easter (and again worth stating this is well into FI) and that's basically a west-based negative NAO develops with enough residual energy to expand the trough south west back into the Atlantic. 

If you want a synoptic example of chalk vs cheese here are the 12Z OP runs from GFS and GEM at T+240.

It doesn't look that great up to Easter in all honesty with daytime maxima 12-14c at best in the south and east and plenty of ground and air frost especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[ANYWEATHER]

Forget ,going to Iberia , the next ten days ,gfs show unrelenting unsettled conditions,  around this area including including the Canaries , spells big flooding for this area. Even worse as we move into April....

[Sherry]

 stodge 12 to 14 is average to slightly above so that’s just what we should expect temp wise 

[feb1991blizzard]

WOWZERZ.