Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem

[damianslaw]

 Metwatch A rather odd anomaly, aleutian low, arctic high, deep low over scandi, iberian high, weak low to our west..Can see why scandi had a cold winter, and why we had a mild one.. had the atlantic been more actively stronger perhaps this would have thwarted the iberian high, with a southerly strong jet phasing with the scandi low. You can see we weren't far off a cold winter, no strong low to our NW. 

Edited March 3 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

 damianslaw Not often we want a stronger Atlantic to get the cold in!

Just shows what rotten luck we had this winter.

[mulzy]

 Metwatch This is probably better for monthly / season composites, though it's essentially the same!

Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

PSL.NOAA.GOV

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US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory

 

[cheeky_monkey]

 Metwatch you couldn't get a more classic El Nino North American pressure anomaly for winter if you tried 

[Weather-history]

The 500mb anomaly chart for February

How did England and Wales record more rain than Scotland during February? The SE England region  recorded almost the same total as Scotland did and the SW region recorded more rain than the north of Scotland. Yet you look at look at that anomaly chart, you would think it should be the driest regions for the UK  

[joggs]

All I know is it was one of the biggest let downs ever for me. All the decent sugs and potential we had.

Iberian high is here to rule I fear

[damianslaw]

 Weather-history Complete reversal to what many long range forecasts suggested. A shocker of a month for cold.

[raz.org.rain]

 joggs I can't imagine how hot the summer will be if those Iberian highs continue and grow. It could only be made worse if we get hot and wet weather, it'd be like Hong Kong most of the time.

[SqueakheartLW]

 joggs

7 hours ago, joggs said:

All I know is it was one of the biggest let downs ever for me. All the decent sugs and potential we had.

Iberian high is here to rule I fear

It's been the same every winter now almost uninterrupted since the record breaking basin wide Super Nino of 2015/16.

That Super Nino seemed to mark a big step change away from a reasonable chance of cold and to frequently mild, very often for weeks on end too.

Apart from 2017/18 with some cold snaps and the BFTE and to a lesser degree 2020/21 the theme has been dominated by mild and the dreaded winter killer Iberian heights

Also of note is how all of the big summer heat spikes also coincidentally started in 2015 as well.

That Super Nino certainly has caused something and coldies better hope the recent Strong to almost Super Nino event hasn't pushed us up another level to almost constant above average temps with excessive heat in summer as well.

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Also of note is how all of the big summer heat spikes also coincidentally started in 2015 as well.

Yes, it's as if something definitely changed in 2015 and I fear there's no going back! 

[damianslaw]

 SqueakheartLW We experienced something similiar post Jan 97 until winter of 08-09, a long run of winters with episodic brief cold spells and the odd longer spell such as happened in 17-18 and 20-21, but the extent of warmth since winter 13-14 which seems a more obvious turning point than winter 15-16 has been more extreme.

Conversely whilst we've had record breaking summer warmth and long dry hot spells in summer 18 and 22, our summers seem to be far more variable with as much in the way of very lengthy wet spells as well. 

[Wade]

These past three winters snow-wise have been just atrocious for snow, in my location I would say I have seen 3cm max over the 3 winters put together. This past winter has been better than the last two however in regards to storms and rain. I love the rain and the amount of storms also gave this winter some excitement for me personally. Let's hope 2024/25 can deliver the winter wonderland we all crave for. 

Edited March 13 by Wade

[sebastiaan1973]

Temperature chart for this winter.

[johncam]

 sebastiaan1973 do you have the same chart for the whole nothern hemisphere,  thanks 

John

Edited March 14 by johncam

[sebastiaan1973]

 johncam No I have not.

[johncam]

 sebastiaan1973 thanks anyway 

[damianslaw]

A feature of the winter has been long drawn NE arctic winds into the north atlantic through Iceland, but they seem to only have generated low pressure to our west/sw held in situ by heights to our NE. Quite an unusual anomaly. how the cold was locked to our north but not over the arctic. 

[Summer8906]

Agree that it was a "strange" winter in that, despite it being extremely mild, wet and dull, it wasn't rampant zonality of the 2013/4, 2015/6 or 2019/20 sort. Consequently fewer really notable storms; in this part of the country only Ciaran and Henk (which I missed) seemed to be notable storms for wind, though many more were notable for rain.

Also notable that (I don't think) we've had a named storm of any description since late Jan (is that correct)? To see a prolonged period of mild, dull and very wet in the winter but without a named storm must be unusual. Perhaps reminiscent of Oct/Nov 2022 which was another period notable for being very mild and extremely wet.

Seemed to be a high frequency of a combination of dull, mild, wet but light winds, from frequent lows, with low central pressure but lacking tight isobars, moving SW-NE on a fairly southerly track, but not southerly enough to produce cold.

Not unlike a bad summer, synoptically, perhaps. Seems almost as if we've had the exact same synoptics producing dull, wet, mild but not that windy (with occasional exceptions e.g. Storm Ciaran) for the past 9 months. Never known the weather stuck in a rut for so long, from summer to the following spring. Literally just two meaningful breaks: the first 10 days or so of September and the second and third week of Jan. Mild, dull, damp but often still - perfect weather for mosquitoes, but not for us.

As for the worst winter, I'd still give that "honour" to 19/20, with the two week cold spell in January being the deciding factor as 19/20 completely lacked such a spell. Still in the "top" 5 for awfulness though, alongside 13/14, 15/16 and one of 89/90 and 06/07 (can't decide which).

Edited March 16 by Summer8906

[sundog]

Perhaps the warmer then average sst's have helped to  have had such a miserable winter?

[damianslaw]

 Summer8906 Yes not a very stormy winter, and in the main despite how wet it has been, the rain came in moderate outbursts, steady rather than deluges... at least from a lakeland perspective, hardly any flooding, which is a big bonus. 

We were not far off a cold unsettled winter, had the jet been more southerly, the cold was there to our north, just out of reach to tap into, evidenced by the fact Iceland had a cold winter, Shetland was average. 

Edited March 16 by damianslaw

[Don]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

We were not far off a cold unsettled winter, had the jet been more southerly, the cold was there to our north, just out of reach to tap into, evidenced by the fact Iceland had a cold winter, Shetland was average. 

I can't stop thinking that had this same winter occurred just 10 years ago, it would have been cold and unsettled with the jet further south, due to lower heights over Iberia?

[Froze were the Days]

 sundog This was mentioned a number of weeks ago...BUT the North Atlantic hasn't been particularly warm in fact closer to normal with a slight tripole.

[Met.]

 damianslaw Y'all were looking at the wrong forecast, 'fraid.

This was my forecast, written on 1st November 2023 (with proof of its creation date below):

 

 

Edited March 19 by Met.

[Catacol]

Interesting article today. Even the big wigs are struggling with explaining things right now…

Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory

WWW.NATURE.COM

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Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed. Taking into account all known factors, the planet...

 

[Don]

21 hours ago, Catacol said:

Interesting article today. Even the big wigs are struggling with explaining things right now…

More bad news for our world....