Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303 it's sounding like April will be unexceptional so far, it's sounding like another borefest of slightly above average and continually overcast. I'm not sure if we'll see a repeat of 2023, it was an extreme event in its own right for the most part.

[danm]

 kold weather that is quite telling. I have a hunch this is down to more intense rainfall during wet spells rather than more frequent wet weather. But could be wrong. 

[danm]

Following on from my post above, it does actually seem as though the average number of days with rainfall each year HAS increased, but only by a little for London.

106 days per year between 1961-1990 to 111 days between 1991-2020. Not much in the grand scheme of things, possibly within the margin around a mean. So what’s more likely is more intense rainfall during wet spells. 

Edited March 19 by danm

[danm]

Here are the average rainy days per year, 1961-1990 and 1991-2020:

 

[raz.org.rain]

 danm if I recall correctly, that's one of the expected changes in our weather in response to climate change. A notable increase in rain intensity, but it all occurs within a much shorter period. This would be problematic as it reduces how much water is absorbed by the topsoil.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 2018

[CryoraptorA303]

 B87 I almost forgot about that one, that must be the only example in our recorded history.

 raz.org.rain Well we all know how badly the winter was predicted, so hopefully its wrong, or at least if its overcast its much drier than we've had recently.

[kold weather]

 danm fascinating, so there is also an increase in rain days, albeit not too intense of a change. 

Probably down to showers just being a little more intense on average leading to a marginal increase in days getting over 1mm would be my guess.

 

Edited March 19 by kold weather

[Summer8906]

 MP-R 1989 too. Very warm and sunny May, and very warm and sunny summer.

As I've said before, 1989 remains the best extended summer of my lifetime. I cannot think of another year in my lifetime when all of May-Sep were warm, dry and sunny. We then have to go back to 1959, I believe, to find another example of such a fine May-Sep period.

Edited March 19 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 CryoraptorA303 @B87Sorry, completely forgot about April 2018 - I suppose it's easy to do so because most of the month was dull and wet. That said, it was 2nd half of April when summer-like temps are much more likely than the opening days.

(Was it 29? I thought the max was 27)

Edited March 19 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! Interesting that despite the wet 2nd half of the 60s, 1964-73 still ends up one of the driest 10-year periods. Presumably 1970-73 were very dry.

If I had to put a date to the "first stage" of the wettening, I'd say November 1997. This was something I remember noticing at the time. There was a synoptic development at the start of Nov which saw fine anticyclonic weather with hard frosts replaced by active lows on a southerly track producing an extremely mild, dull and wet constant deluge throughout November.

This then became something of a repeating pattern. The end of the 90s and early 00s seemed to be notable, compared to the 80s and earlier 90s, for southerly jetstreams and more southerly tracking lows producing disproportionately heavy rain in the south. This wet period persisted until 2002 (though thankfully the summers weren't especially wet - the wetness was concentrated in autumn/winter) and then there was a drier period for a while. The rest of the 00s were drier but were notable for occasional very wet spells with a southerly jetstream and low track, while from the mid-10s these wet spells have become more frequent - notably since June 2019.

So the point I'm trying to make is, that since the end of 1997 there seems to have been a considerably higher frequency of southerly low tracks compared to the 80s and early-mid 90s.

Edited March 19 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain Would be an unusual combination for April if so. Once we get to April, cloudy is normally associated with cool.

It would suggest yet more constant SW-lies which would be synoptically exceptional for April. I'm struggling to think of an April where SW-lies have been in charge all month. Even more so following 9 months of near-constant SW-lies before that.

Just hope not, another month of dull drab SW-lies would be the death knell for spring 2024. It'll then be May, and with the constant mildness causing flowers to bloom early, even if it does turn settled in May the countryside will lack the vibrancy and freshness May normally brings.

Already placing bets on 2024 being my most disliked weather year of all time, even though it's still early days. If April is bland and tedious then that's just May and June left to be decent, as 3 times out of 4, July-December is a constant overcast Atlantic bore-fest.

I wouldn't mind a cool, changeable April with NW-lies and frequent cool days/cold nights and the odd wintry spell though. That would be interesting. A tenth consecutive month of dull, damp overcast SW-lies would simply be too much though.

Edited March 19 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 danm This would accord with my observation of more southerly tracking lows, so frontal rainfall nowadays is more likely to produce a deluge. In the 80s, frontal rainfall was typically steady with only showers producing torrential rain.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 kold weather can’t see how showers have been more intense? There has been a general decrease in thunder activity over the last 10-20 years which I remember being spoken about by the BBC or Metoffice.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

A lot of these posts about being wet and lacking sun is what we refer to as ‘normality’.

You have our thoughts and prayers, wishing you a return to your own version of normality soon.

Our deepest sympathies,

Western Scotland.

[Sentinel]

What's causing the constant SW-lies?

[Summer8906]

 Cheshire Freeze Yes I don't think it's showers, down here for example we don't actually get many classic showery days.

Seems to be, as I said, more in the way of really active frontal systems, combined with less in the way of ridges of high pressure in between (so we get a lot of 'drizzle showers' between the fronts, which may not contribute that much to rainfall, but it all adds up...)

[AnnyPl]

It will be interesting to see how this weather develops next. Will it continue to be as wet throughout the year?

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

(Was it 29? I thought the max was 27)

29.1°C at St. James's Park on the 19th, which is the hottest April day on record and beat a 125 year old record by an entire degree (29.4°C at Camden in 1949 isn't valid).

If the preceding autumn, winter and low spring had been dry then we could've seen >30°C in that spell.

Edited March 19 by CryoraptorA303

[kold weather]

 Cheshire Freeze 1mm of rainfall really isn't that much from showers, a modest shower will probably get you close to that level. Thunder maybe decreasing but you sure as heck don't need a thunderstorm for that...

Fronts I don't think will play much of a part since the vast majority will contribute over 1mm to begin with and thise drizzly fronts often don't even give 0.5mm yet alone 1mm when looking at the actual statistics.

 

[MP-R]

 CryoraptorA303 Camden is valid.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 May 1989 as well, after a catastrophic April.

I wonder if 2024 will challenge 2021 for the dullest year on record?

Edited March 19 by B87

[danm]

 Cheshire Freeze Maybe less in terms of thunderstorms but more rain falling during frontal rainfall perhaps?

[CryoraptorA303]

 B87 Good point, I had no idea May 1989 saw 29.8°C!

Funnily enough, February 1989 was one of February 2024's closest relatives.

30 minutes ago, B87 said:

I wonder if 2024 will challenge 2021 for the dullest year on record?

Far too early to call yet, many years that had dull and wet starts turned it around and hosted some of the most acclaimed spells in our history, 1989 included.

Looking at data from 1989, it's quite incredible and sad just how many stations we've lost since then. 572 reports for May 23rd 1989 vs the ~300 you'll get today. Unsurprisingly to many, much of the decline appears to be after 2010.

Edited March 19 by CryoraptorA303

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunSean Very telling that you can go away for nearly a week, come back, and it's still exactly the same dross! 

You've missed nothing of note or positivity here, weather wise. Same old, day-in day-out. Think I saw the sun partially for 2/3 hours on Sunday afternoon...that was about it. 

Unfortunately I've had some personal plans crop up which need me to be in the UK for the next couple weeks...which has scuppered my plans to take a trip somewhere sunny