Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless

[danm]

A couple more comparisons below between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020.

Average rainy days >10mm between the two periods:

 

Average total annual rainfall between the two periods:

 

We have got a little wetter and there are a few more rainy days each year on average. 

 

On the flip side though, it has got sunnier:

 

Between '61-90, London averaged 1,519 hours of sunshine per year. Between '91-2020 London averaged 1,674 hours of sunshine per year. 

Edited March 19 by danm

[kold weather]

 danm I think that does back up my showers idea as to why we are seeing more days rather frontal rain, which in theory shouldn't lead to an increase in sunshine. (If anything stronger frontal rain would lead to larger cloud canopy I'd have thought? 

Less frontal rain vs showers though would do the trick for that combination though.

Obviously this is probably a vast simplification!

[CryoraptorA303]

What do we all reckon the chances of 20°C tomorrow are? Most predictions are going for somewhere in the range of 17-18°C in Kent, so this will probably translate to 19-20°C in the central plains. If it happens I'd have to guess either a London station like St James's Park or somwhere like Pershore will see it. No chance of East Anglia or the south coast seeing it IMO, outside of maybe far northern East Anglia like Coningsby.

Quite incredible that we're talking about seeing a 20°C in a March as dull and wet as this one, this almost always only happens in sunny and dry Marches. Perhaps this will mark the turning point.

[CryoraptorA303]

On that note I'll add that Pershore is currently at 16.1°C and for the last week we've been consistently seeing temps above 14°C. Despite how wet and dull it's been it's also generally been very warm. On the few days the Sun has come out it's definitely started to feel very warm. Hopefully this warmness is acting to counteract the rain somewhat and very gradually evaporating some of it.

Over the weekend we will ironically see the lowest temps since January but luckily this is looking to be not too overcast and dry in the south so far, as far as I can tell.

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for the wetness. Please, please, the one time I'm asking for a very warm, sunny and dry April, make it happen

Edited March 19 by CryoraptorA303

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SunSean Looks fake to me. Real weather like that doesn't exist.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 AnnyPl Over a year of clagfest now I've lost all interest in the weather!

[raz.org.rain]

4 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Just hope not, another month of dull drab SW-lies would be the death knell for spring 2024. It'll then be May, and with the constant mildness causing flowers to bloom early, even if it does turn settled in May the countryside will lack the vibrancy and freshness May normally brings.

I think I'd rather sacrifice spring if it meant we got a classic summer, but last year proves that you can get a subpar spring and still get a largely terrible summer. I suppose it's good to know we can still squeeze two heatwave months out of such a terrible year though.

[Terminal Moraine]

 danm I had a look at the average annual number of rain days ( 0.2mm or more) here in  each decade from 1968 onward and there's been little change.

1968-1977  209 days

1978-1987  216 days

1988-1997 197 days

1998-2007 206 days

2008-2017 208 days

2018-2023 206 days

Apart from a dip in the late 80s to mid 90s the average number of days over the last 6 years, which has been the wettest period on record,  is broadly similar, if not a bit less, than it was was from  1968 through to the present.  This translates to an increase in rainfall on rain days from 4.6 mm per day in the 1960s and 1970s to 6.1 mm per rainfall day in the last decade.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 Zero for London.

Forecast suggests 17c or maybe 18c, before it then turns cold and even gloomier.

Yet another extremely dull March, to go with 2023, 2021, 2018, 2013 in recent times.

Edited March 19 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

 B87 At least it's looking much less wet than recent times now, gotta take the positives.

Perhaps my request of less than 10mm more rain for the SE in the rest of March will be honoured, or close enough, which is a significant improvement all things considered.

[danm]

 Terminal Moraine if you look at the Met Office data on rainy days in excess of 1mm and 10mm then there has been a small increase pretty much everywhere. That may be less pronounced if only looking above 0.2mm. The increase is small though. 

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 still very dull compared to what it should be though, after a dull February and an exceptionally dull December.

April last year was dull as well. Hopefully we will actually get a run of sunny months this time. 

[CryoraptorA303]

Why does it seem like Coningsby has been getting so warm in the last few years? Pre-2022 time it popped up as a daily maxer maybe a few times a year, since the 2022 heatwave it's one of the main frontrunners. I'm starting to think we should investigate it for doping

 B87 I know, but as I said you have to take the positives. Continued dullness but with significantly lower rain going into April is one hell of a step up from a continuation of the sort of rain we've been seeing. Rome (or Coningsby in this case ) wasn't built in a day.

[raz.org.rain]

Funnily enough it's been pleasantly springlike here for the past few days. A little overcast but the sun often breaks through it, and remaining dry. That classic early spring fresh but pleasantly fresh low mid teens feel.

[B87]

Still waiting for it to feel springlike. The next week or so will have winterlike temps of 8-10c, and April looks like it'll be another poor month on long range forecasts.

Spring is usually dry, frequent sunny days and 12-20c temps. March will end up duller than January at this rate.

Edited March 19 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain The central plains have been seeing the best weather this March. The south coast has been seeing among the worst conversely, although the Sun is definitely starting to attempt coming out here in Kent.

 B87 Honestly 8-10°C isn't that insanely cold for March, and if anything a period of cooler temps are needed. Yes we've been seeing constant dullness and rain but it's also still warm, especially at night. We need some northerlies to start cooling the Atlantic a bit now. At least northerlies would be very unlikely to lead to heavy rain in the south.

As for April, the mid-terms got the winter horribly wrong so I wouldn't trust it all that much. If it's going for more overcast rubbish then there's just as much a chance that we get the opposite.

In other news, this March is on course to be the first month since June last year to not be the hottest on record globally. A rather fast reduction in global temps will probably work in our favour to cool the Atlantic a bit and reduce the signal. Good riddance to El Nino, it has brought us nothing but misery this time around. It must be worth trying an ENSO flip at this point.

Edited March 19 by CryoraptorA303

[danm]

I wouldn't mind so much it getting a bit cooler if it also got sunnier. The sun at this time of year is starting to get quite strong, so even 12c and sunny can feel warm out of the shade. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 danm Looks like we will also be getting some clear nights and near-freezing daily lows. This will hopefully lead to quite a sharp reduction in Atlantic temps and reduce the signal going into April. After that, we pray that heights start to form over us.

[raz.org.rain]

6 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Well we all know how badly the winter was predicted, so hopefully its wrong, or at least if its overcast its much drier than we've had recently.

That's my current line of thinking in regards to the purely ENSO based long range forecasting. I've seen a few people bet against any hot and dry weather this summer due to the forecasted sudden flip from El Niño to La Niña. But, to be honest, we saw the same for winter... countless forecasts of how cold and snowy it was going to be because it was an El Niño winter and such, and then that turned into how El Niño winters are backloaded. Before we knew it, it was March and still no signs of anything cold and snowy. Instead we've had what was likely one of the mildest and wettest winters on record.

To me, this summer looks to stand a good chance of bucking the trend for ENSO transition years to see poor summers. Although, the relevance of ENSO states and summers in NW Europe has always been up for debate, and you could argue that previous poor summers occurred coincidentally in response to localised climatic factors that aren't present this time around. Others have noted how absurd the levels of heat are around the northern hemisphere so far, so if it does turn out to be a wet summer, I'd imagine it would be incredibly warm and muggy too.

[raz.org.rain]

20°c is "summer temperatures" apparently, it feels like some of these journalists live in Dundee or something...

UK set for first mini-heatwave of 2024 within days as temperatures hit 20C - Birmingham Live

WWW.BIRMINGHAMMAIL.CO.UK

---

Parts of the UK will experience soaring temperatures as we head deeper into March and into April with spring beginning, it has been reported.

 

[midlandsun]

Constant grey clouds and drizzle here for literally 9 months now. Completely and utterly getting on my tits now.

[A Face like Thunder]

 raz.org.rain it's called selling newspapers and advertising space. At the same time as a mini-heatwave is forecast, someone else will be forecasting the 'exact spots in England where a wall of snow will fall'. Don't bother with these headlines I say.  

[Summer8906]

 B87 Mind you that forecast doesn't look terrible.

The dark clouds are during the "night time" hours 6pm - 6am.

Surprisingly little rain given the models, unless "one drop" of rain can indicate anything from a 5-min light shower to a deluge.

It does show that no really clean air will arrive though, as there are no days with clear skies overnight showing. Really once you get into spring, the occurrence of clear nights ought to increase dramatically even if the days are cloudier (e.g. showers or Sc sheets forming during the day and dissipating at night)

 raz.org.rain Not Birmingham, Alabama perchance?

Edited March 19 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 CryoraptorA303 Regarding rainfall for the remainder of the month - what do you make of some of the very cyclonic model runs today though? Some of them next week seem to look very wet indeed, wetter even than February or March thus far - particularly as we approach Easter.

 danm Indeed, April with 12c/sunny would be far preferable to 15c with constant damp, dull rPm and Tm air.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 B87 By the looks of your data they are getting more common too! This IS the new normal!