Andy Bown
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Posts posted by Andy Bown
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It's cool here too, I'm holding off checking when the maximum last failed to exceed 14.5c because a spell of sunshine in the next hour is possible and would likely raise the temperature.
Really hoping tomorrow's fine day leads into a calm evening for the annual pass holders special preview of Longleat's hot air balloon event. Last year it was sunny but too windy for a proper flight.
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After 3 days in the teens we're back above 21c this afternoon.
Only a few mm of rain so far this month and not much to come this week.
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In addition we have just had a cloudburst which is showing as pink intensity on the radar!
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A surprisingly good convective / sky watching afternoon with a few sharp showers in the last half hour.
It seems the front is pepping up nicely in response to the very warm air, it nudged 25c earlier this afternoon.
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2 hours ago, Bobd29 said:
Cloudy in Trowbridge yesterday, cloudy today! Frustrating when the sun line is only 20-30 miles away.
But better than the front being even further East and us likely to be under drizzly muck!
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17 minutes ago, Leon1 said:
Showers that I'm sure just convected out of nowhere have started light rain over Bath and south-west towards France.
Probably along an upper Warm Front which was shown on Fax Charts but was not forecast to produce anything other than scattered or sporadic showers in the Central Southern areas.
However there is far more rain showing further West than any forecast I've seen.
I would expect a lot of it to be falling from mid-high level cloud and to be evaporating before reaching the ground. If it was light there would be some pretty cool cloudscapes.
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Goodness knows what has happened to my sensor, it's reading 29.7c!!!!!
We had a great week in Sidmouth and were so grateful for a mostly dry week, every morning started dull/drizzly then became fine, bright and warm.
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The absolute definition of a day of 2 halves.
Heavy, briefly torrential rain and gusty winds until late morning which gave 14mm and a mostly sunny, breezy afternoon.
Very yoyoing temperatures, 16.8c at 06.00 then rapidly down to 12.4c around 11.00 and an eventual maximum of 20.1c this afternoon!
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59 minutes ago, knocker said:
The low 1200 Saturday according to this evening's fax and ecm and then the ecm continuation as it quickly loses it's identity over the next 48hours. To the west a few waves forming along the airmass boundary
Hi Knocker, how much impact do you think these fronts/waves may have on the SW?
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Two virtually carbon copy days with large amount of Stratocumulus and occasional very warm sunshine along with a gusty wind, 23.3c max yesterday and 23.8c tops today. Probably very similar again tomorrow.
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I'd forgotten how quickly air masses can change in Atlantic driven conditions!
From chilly, clear and sunny this morning to dull, muggy and drizzly now.
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23 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Massive blob of rain incoming. That wasn't on the cards.
Ian forecast it on Points West yesterday evening.
This is the first dodgy work morning of the holidays which seeing as it's the 12th one is remarkable lol!
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32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
6 hours of blue skies, then it goes completely overcast. That wasn't forecast, and it still isn't now.
I think the plume (if it is one!!) is destabilising much further West than any forecast has shown. The current radar looks like one we often see in mid to late evening.
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We were just sat outside enjoying the warmth, stars appearing and bats flitting around and commenting how this summer seems to be something of a blur.
Endless days of hot sunshine with just the odd few days to a week blip. Let's not forget these conditions started with a Thursday in April then with the incredible early May bank holiday weekend.
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We've been to Kingston Lacy today, love it there and a perfect summer day too!
Noticeable temperature difference between there and home, presumably due to what I assume was a sea breeze.
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3 consecutive days in the 28s and probably 3 more to come, thankfully today was far less humid than yesterday with virtually unbroken blue sky.
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Back edge of the extremely weak cold front perfectly timed for sunset.
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Who turned on the tropical switch?
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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
All main models this morning are more keen to bring the 16C uppers line to the UK by Tuesday, with the ECM nearly getting the 20C line to the Kent coast by the end of the day. This would probably mean surface temps well into the 90Fs. However, still a lot of volatility in the models for that timeframe.
So that would lessen record maxima breaking chances given the hottest air not being during the daytime!? Opportunity for a minima record though.
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9 hours ago, Mapantz said:
Similar here, Andy.
9 hours ago, matt111 said:And here it would seem.
When I checked the radar at 05.30 there had been lightning scattered across the region but nothing organised closer than the London area.
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Early wake up call tomorrow?
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It was actually quite weird driving today in swirling wind/rain with road verges brown due to the dryness/heat but littered with large, leaf laden fallen branches!
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8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Wettest day since November 21st 2016 - 33mm barring any other drizzly bits & bobs.
Talk about one extreme to another!!
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We haven't had an Atlantic driven wet and windy morning like this since 2nd May!!
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Model output discussion - summer rolls on
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The set up for next week reminds me of Ophelia last October. Could we possibly get similar dusty air brought up from the South.