ronan
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Everything posted by ronan
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My first Xmas without my wee man. Will see him Christmas night but not the same. Anyways am sure it will be a good one whatever happens. Bought him a pair of snow boots the other day so hopefully he can enjoy them soon enough.
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Happy Christmas to you all. Feeling very chilly out today but the sun is shining. Hopefully see some of the white stuff in the near future.
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Neiller I wouldn't go as far as saying that they will have egg in their faces. Forecasts are put together using model output and trends showing in weather patterns. It's not fact. Alot of time and effort goes into their forecasts. If you watch the video I posted then it explains in alot of detail how things can change so quickly. I'm hopeful that come the New Year we will be see several cold spells before winter is out.
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Hopefully we start getting a clearer picture after todays 12z. It really is getting a bit boring now!
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This is a great video. I've learnt loads from it! Well worth 30 mins of your time.
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My only 2 photos of the Aurora. Everytime theres a good forecast the weather goes against me getting out!
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Bob i reckon thats a great idea. Lol. Honestly i have never seen so much chopping and changing! Its mad!
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Like i said. Always wait for the 12z. Will the ECM stick to its guns and throw another spanner in the works or will it join the party? We shall see!
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Neiller seriously! You need to stop going in to the model thread. I've just mailed you a months supply of Prozac. Get in to a habit of just checking the 12z each day and take it from there. I just think everyone is expecting 09/10 again. Doubt that will happen but you never know. I'm still hopeful. The models have been flip flopping all over the place this week, what's to say they won't flip flop all the way back to cold again? Normally we wouldn't be expecting any cold/snow till January anyway.
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Ha it sounds like wee are all getting hammered this weekend! Defs up for a meet in the New Year. I did mention this a while back but was busy moving house so forgot all about it. Pom i think you just nominated yourself as organiser! Enjoy your night Storm!
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Well I'm ditching the ECM tonight! Sent you a wee PM Pom
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Just to add before i go. I think the ECM is talking crap! Its been wrong so many times. Just because some swear by it in the model thread doesn't mean its right! Anyways as i said yesterday.....more runs needed.
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Right Neiller i just choked on me knickers. Thanks. Lol. Right not looking at the model thread until Sunday when i'll be nursing a real bad hangover. This could be the messiest weekend of the year so say a wee prayer for me. :smiliz19:
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Yes they will remain and i will eat my knickers if they don't. Lol
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So this is what they were on about.......... Also look at the poll of -12's off to our north west. Classic stuff.
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So the GFS went off on one yesterday and got Neiller all worked up. Now the GFS and the GFSP more or less look identical. Niceeeeeeeeee. If we do see a good spell of wintry weather then we can almost sday that the new GFSP is doing a great job! Lovely!
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Glad to see you have flopped back Neiller. Was.about to send you some Prozac! Lol. MS that's the kinda Shizzle I want to be reading in here. Lol. A wintry storm with white out conditions sounds class! Roll on the 12z
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So the flip flopping continues. I reckon come Sunday we will be back on track with regards to a cold spell even if it is pushed back a few days than originally projected. I expect the 12z today to throw up some tasty charts again.
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Well i'm not getting hung up on one run. Models will always struggle with pesky shortwaves. More runs needed. If the downgrades are still there tomorrow or Saturday then I'll start to worry but until then I'm still hopeful.
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From Ian F But...You will see a (suitably measured) change in emphasis herein based on new UKMO guidance for period circa 26th onwards for few days. Initial areas being watched are N England - N Ireland, then focus to SW UK, based especially on MOGREPS-15 ENS. A 'very dynamic situation' as Exeter say, but confidence still low on eventual outcome. Not to often we get a mention from Mr Ferguson. Someone care to explain this in plain English for me. Lol
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I would tend to go with the new GFSP. A few have also stated this in the model thread earlier. Let's see which one performs better over the next week.
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He sure did back in October i think it was. Heard him chatting on the radio about it.
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Am in the process of building this. Hmmmmm
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
ronan replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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MS you understand things more than most of us. In your opinion what can go wrong in the next 7 days? Shortwaves etc? It all looks pretty solid so far. Obviously there will be changes.
