AWD

I see our very own West Country forecaster has got everyone excited in the MOD thread.

Mega hailstorm that has turned the ground white!

Deep hail shower passing over.

As storm Dirk leaves us, storm Erich is now developing and on it's way to our shores tomorrow; More wet & windy weather to further exacerbate the problems some of us still have;

From Ian; "W COUNTRY The next storm Thurs later eve into Fri AM not expected as severe as last one, but widespread 50mph gusts; 60-70 in exposure. Rainfall overnight Thurs-Fri will give widely 10-20mm with 30mm in some areas; again mostly further to S/SE of region."

The football fields at Keynsham;

It's currently not forecast to be as intense as what we have just experienced for our region but of course, just a quarter of what we have just had will still add insult to injury.

Who's ready for round 3 on Friday?

Round 2 well and truly underway here. As expected, squall features embedded within the mass of PPN, giving localised torrential downpours and rise to potential tornadic activity.

Merry Christmas & a prosperous new year everyone.

High res EURO4 model highlights a risk of some wintriness across the highest peaks of the moors on Boxing Day;

A lull now for Western/South Western parts of the region before round 2 commences later this evening although this time more concentrated on rainfall rather than winds.

Don't remind me. An 8hr shift as now turned into an 11hr shift today!

Met Office rainfall projections highlight the two seperate bands of rain well. Firstly we have our current band slowly heading east; Then we have a lull late afternoon into the evening of just showery bits & pieces; Then we have band number 2 entering our region from late evening onwards, with an embedded squall like feature in it, highlighting the risk of torrential downpours at times tonight; So lots more rainfall to come still. I think we will only realise what affects the rainfall volumes have had on our region by daylight tomorrow.

2.1c please

Latest from Ian; "W COUNTRY 0925GMT Latest @metoffice assessment retains firm signal for highest winds & rain totals across #Dorset & S #Wiltshire into #Hants. Expect fragmentary lull in rainfall across W/N areas later afternoon-early eve before it re-establishes again mid-late eve. Later tonight, emphasis for strongest winds (gusts to 70+mph) becomes focused into S/SE of England, essentially from #Hampshire eastwards." Basically, don't be fooled by a brief lull this afternoon. Some very heavy rain possible early evening onwards for some, including squall like features.

And so it begins. Wet & very windy here with it only worsening as the day progresses.

With this; and this; http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif forecast to take place in the Stratosphere over the next couple of weeks, I would expect many tasty but volatile, ens and FI operational charts to start appearing soon. How this will propagate down into the troposphere and more importantly how it will affect the UK pattern, if at all, remains to be seen. Therefore, I wouldn't get too attached to FI output for the timebeing yet, no matter what it shows! Interesting times for sure though. January looking a lot more interesting than December for the cold weather lover.

Increasingly noteworthy wave 2 activity forecast for the turn of the year now; http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif This is likely to make NWP output rather volatile in FI.

From Ian; "W COUNTRY 0550GMT UPDATE F'cast remains consistent re earlier advisories. Add potential 50+mm rain totals Forest of Dean #FOD to previous. Rain establishes from W into AM rush-hr & no widespread relaxation of wet weather until early hrs Tues. Winds pick-up later this morning & into midday. Considerable localised flux on gust strength/impacts but to 50-60mph fairly widely."

Latest from Ian; "W COUNTRY Latest met office assessment indicative of widespread 50-60mph gusts inland tomoro with potential to 70mph as far N as M4 corridor. However, rainfall tally gives greatest concern: 25-50mm looking fairly broadscale, especially further S where totals highest. 60+mm feasible over uplands of e.g. Dorset Downs; S Wiltshire, etc. Expect locally to ca. 40+mm over Mendips/Cotswolds. Many of you asking re air travel tomorrow. Cannot pre-judge this, so please follow @OfficialBRS for any guidance/status tomorrow."

From Ian; "W COUNTRY Rain establishing from SW/W across region from Mon AM will continue - aside temporary drier interludes - through to early hrs Tues. Rainfall totals widely 10-40mm; highest (potentially circa 40-60mm) in S areas, e.g. SE #Somerset, #Dorset, S #Wiltshire. Very windy Mon too; a lot of local variation but strongest gusts to S'rn districts, potentially 60+mph e.g. Dorset/S Wilts. Winds widely gusting 40-50+mph elsewhere across region. Combined with many hrs rainfall, sig travel issues/disruption likely."

Don't the the boundaries or figures too literally, they're just there for a broad brush story of where both the wettest and least wettest places are likely to be tomorrow. Only you will know your environmental nuances that can affect rainfall accumulations local to yourself.

Here's my look at the upcoming weather situation for the next 24 hours or so. Firsty, a brief scour of the 12z High Res model output and where our low is currently. A look at the Atlantic satellite imagery shows our low starting to form now; This will rapidly deepen thanks to a strong thermal gradient consisting of both Canadian Arctic air and Atlantic Maritime air, fuelling a strong Jet stream with the UK as it's eastern target; This therefore, means a "cyclonic bomb" is heading our way; A look at what the 12z High Res models (primarily the NAE & EURO4) forecast for our region specifically then. We can see the rainfall hitting Cornwall tomorrow morning and spreading to most of the region by midday tomorrow; You can see there, once the rain arrives, it's with us for most, if not all of the day. The mass of PPN highlighted here; During the afternoon, to make matters worse, windspeeds will also become more notable, especially around coastal fringes. Winds currently modelled to gust around the 60mph - 80mph mark widely; I'm not going to dwell too much on the wind side of things though, as I feel windspeeds will be a more local, rather than regional issue and for many of us, rainfall accumulations will be a rather more problematic issue than windspeeds. I'll leave you with this chart courtesy of Meteogroup, which details Windspeed forecasts rather well IMO; One thing I will say though, is the tornadic possibilities tomorrow strengthen markedly, so be aware of localised structural damage if your in any squall/tornadic activity; Back to the more pressing issue of rainfall accumulations then and by the end of day tomorrow, both the NAE and EURO4 models show marked rainfall volumes across a large swathe of our region; Respectable agreement between the two there. If these were to verify, which is looking increasingly likely they will now, then we are certainly looking at flooding issues and river flooding over the Christmas period. With further, although less dramatic, rainfall progged for Tuesday, the 48hr accumulative rainfall charts look startling to say the least; Before I get onto my personal forecast, I'll leave you with the updated Meto FAX chart for tomorrow; A sub 930mb low possible tomorrow, centered NW of Scotland with gales/severe gales over much of the UK. Not often you'll see a depression as noteworthy as this over these here shores. Anyway, here's my summary of where I think we stand regarding tomorrow; The areas in red are the main areas at risk of high rainfall totals and flooding tomorrow. These include much of Devon, especially the moors, much of Dorset, SE Wiltshire and South Hampshire. Rainfall totals over the next 24/48 hours are expected to exceed 50mm widely within this area, locally much more too. You will notice a black circle over Dartmoor inparticular too. I strongly advise those of you within this black circle to be prepared and take action. Dartmoor and surrounding areas could receive biblical rainfall totals causing serious flooding, structural damage and a possible threat to life. This is no joke, the area within the black circle is in real danger of alarming rainfall totals. The area in orange, which includes much of Gloucestershire, North Wiltshire, Oxfordshire and also Cornwall will also receive high rainfall totals, although falling just short of those within the red areas. Areas within the orange zones should be prepared for upto 40mm widely, locally a little more. This again could cause flooding problems but hopefully not as severe as those within the red areas. The yellow area, which includes the Bristol and Somerset areas should get off lightest. Although still very wet, limited minor flooding is likely with many areas just experiencing obese puddles really. Typically 30mm in this area. That's my take on things anyway. I should be around a little more over the next 48 hours so of you have any questions etc, I'll try to answer them or if I can't, I'll pass it on to someone more knowledgable. I'll leave you with the latest BBC amber warning area which differs slightly to mine, but is equally, if not more important; Stay safe all and have a safe Christmas!

Another beefy hail shower passed over again. Nice dusting of hail for a few minutes.