Allseasons-Si

Looks good out to day 9 too NWS,would that runner produce snow on it's northern flank? it does look marginal though.

Are we seriously looking at a prolonged cold spell here instead of a snap? there's every possibility looking at those uppers.

Love the evolution of the control run... and the gefs ens

The control run is very similar to the gfs for Xmas day... again with the control,it looks like a slider/neg tilted trough out in the N Atlantic looks like disrupting SE like the gfs did.

Eastern seaboard John upto 144hrs there are differences in positioning/phasing issues that need to be sorted.

The Eagle has landed for Christmas day... another good run from the gfs but i am wary of that ESB low and how it behaves, until that is modelled right then we need to be cautious from there as it may scupper our chances of getting a more amplified pattern in the Atlantic and trough/s dropping into Scandi.

That's what the EPS on the 27th was showing with another low dropping down from the N/NW

Looking good at day ten,maybe i was talking a load of cobbler's earlier

The models are struggling with the ESB low with regards to phasing with the upper/parent low at 144 and until this is sorted out,then anything past this point fruitless,if this low doesn't phase with the parent low then better heights in the Atlantic would build the Icon doesn't phase this low whereas the UKMO and gfs does hence a flatter pattern,UKMO the middle ground here. or am i talking a load of cobswollacks ,maybe we want it to phase

Because it hasn't gone out that far yet to get excited about

An uptick at 10 hpa,but how much of an uptick is yet to come?,we will know more in the next few days.

RE:- the EPS clusters i think it was @Daniel* that posted them these are three different timestamps Dec 25th,27th and 29th... firstly the Xmas day one shows the initial ridge in the Atlantic with a NW/N flow,the second one shows a renewed trough/low coming down from the NW with heights backing a tad west and maybe linking up with the Ural block to the N/NE with cut off low to our south on the third chart this is all looking good in the extended and if we can get that cut off low to the SE then more fun and games could evolve with a possible NE/E flow developing. goes to eye up the 12z C U in a bit

I feel like i am re-righting the strictly come prancing and dancing on ice obituary again here lol the 18z ICON was a good run although it only goes to 120....shame,as that would i think would produce a stella run into Xmas the gfs...well,it has it's stella's on the 12z then has a Lambrini on the 18z,...yuck the ECM on the other hand has a Martini and thinks it should shoot down the gfs in 007 stile ha! ha! but lets be frank.. we live on a goal post that is so tiny the Greeks would have a field day lets hope the 18z had a wobble night guys,nice chatting with you all,great place this forum is. Edit: i think i had a Nick sussex moment there

Straight for the UK!!! we need this heading further SE and clear the UK.

At 156 v's the 12 162... the more we steer clear of that shortwave off the ESB the better,this is the storm i mentioned above,on this run we seem to delay the phasing of said shortwave which should = a better outcome. then we look for downstream amplification from the trough out of the eastern states after,this is the key to getting more amplitude ahead of it into Greenland.

The ICON slightly more amplified in NE states at 120 thanks to downstream trough into central states 18z 120 v's 12z 126 more info,there seems to be uncertainties with Wed nights storm track,so one to watch...

Just searching afield to see what the pressure is forecasting for Iceland... and you can clearly see a pressure rise there for Xmas week,this bodes well for us now onto the 18z... ....FOR SOME SNOW

Is anyone in Cornwall or SW? some heavy showers getting going down there in the channel with sferics.

Well if the CFSv2 is showing this for Xmas day.... ...then it's on

Yes Scott and i should of mentioned that as this mornings EPS was dreadful in that respect.

Ext EPS are out... that's a lot better lol @chionomaniac

ECM mean at day ten along side the gefs mean look almost identical,just a tad more ridging on the gefs.

It does with 1 inch @Scott Ingham,thanks for your input mate, much appreciated it will be interesting to see the eps clusters soon,they didn't really look all that good this morning compared to recent days,yes there was still some N blocking but not much amplification.

i think you mean the 12z runs

ECM much improved at 192,could see a runner into the south on day ten...