Allseasons-Si

Evening guys,late again thanks to afters shift and reading/trawling through the post's in here thanks to @Met4Cast for a great post earlier i have done a bit of scribbling,this the eps at day ten from the 12z and firstly i will mention the +PNA(Pacific-north American) ridge and also shows a +ve on the graph below,this ridge to the NW of N America forces downstream trough to the E/SE of the US and in turn forces upstream ridge into the Atlantic and downstream trough through the UK and upstream Scandi block/high,these two ridges in both the Atlantic and Scandi are having a right ol time on the NWP'S IE:-tug west-tug east with a tug of rope but which one will win?,i have marked a question mark next to the ridge over Scandi because i still think there is an influence showing in the models/ens for a potential easterly still this amplified pattern is reflected in the AO/NAO too. so there is lots going on,how far north can these ridges push,how far south can the troughs push?,all interesting at the moment going into Dec,what is noticeable is that the zonal train hasn't left the station yet,wherever/whenever that might be. take care all.

Just a quick one before i dash off for work This mornings eps at day ten... i've seen worse...a lot worse

There is a lot of ridging to our west on the extended gefs ens,that is encouraging.

Yes,sorry i don't want to derail the thread and this question is probably suited to the historic thread but i don't know this without digging through the archives and it could take a while,i looked online too but to no avail>maybe never! JFF is (just for fun) anyway,i should head back to MOD and the gefs mean at day ten looks V good...i mean very good

Not kidding JFF,there is only two that show this potent northerly,pert 5 and 30 most of them show benign conditions but cold.

late to the party thanks to afters ^Yes good charts the control drops the trough even further west but as Crewe says, that trough dropping down the NE'ern states of America just vanishes that iberian low could be a good thing as this would prop the heights up in the Atlantic,a northerly looks odds on at this stage.

Now here is an irony for you gefs ens for my local and for London some of the London ens are trending colder by next weekend with more of a snow row than here this suggests to me that the se of the UK will have more of an influence from a continental source of cold air but i must stress,look how much scatter there is from days 4-5.

The day ten mean18z is an improvement on the 12z where it was flat across the Atlantic,more of a trough digging down from the NW into the UK GEFS mean at 240 v's the ECM There is still quite a few options on the table in the gefs ens at day ten,heights are stubborn to are NE forcing trough to drop down in the vicinity of the UK,some heights are stronger/further north to our NE with easterly winds,some have higher heights to our west forcing a northerly of sorts and some with heights over the UK with some chilly nights with fog and frost i feel a standoff is still on the cards with the Scurasian high and Atlantic high,which will become the strongest will determine the weather,IE:- stronger the Scurasian block,possible easterlies stronger the Atlantic block,possible northerlies my gut is the Atlantic block winning out,just my opinion looking at the anomalies. but we need this Atlantic block further north and more amplified otherwise we would just get a cool possibly cold polar maritime nw'ly flow.

Hey,late to the party but the control is showing what the ecm was showing yesterday evening. so still the possibility for some snow flurries.

Day ten control... ...incoming.

This is in fl PS and how is the Atlantic barreling in when you have lower heights to our S/SE and a block to our NE you need to look at the bigger picture(nh),does the trop pv look round? it certainly doesn't look like a zonal onslaught to me i hope that helps mate.

The trop pv is pointing the finger at us Tim,the middle one Yes a northerly of sorts but no where cold enough but at least it's showing. what i don't see of which is a rarity at this time of the year is a zonal train,and whilst that is absent,then we stand a good chance going into winter.

It's just one run though and maybe having a wobble...it's drunk yes the theme is still the same,the way i see it is that heights to our E/NE and W/NW forcing troughs to run on a NW-SE trajectory through the UK like a stuck record but as you say these heights are putting huge pressure on the trop pv,it's cold up there with nearly -80 temps at 30 hpa so should we squeeze this already ununiformed trop pv to lower lats(depending where) then somewhere will cop for it i am watching those heights in the Atlantic in the extended because some of the ens have been showing some pretty good northerly blasts and i think that is where our next interest lies.

The trough isn't disrupting to the west of us though mike and that's why the heights are not lowering in Iberia,i mentioned this the other day,if the trough disrupts to our S/SE it props the high up.

Why!!! have you become a postman Just kidding mate,the more the merrier will the 18z follow the ECM?,i hope so.

No,we want it to stay sober

Yes Nick and a good run NH wise the EPS also shows the trop pv relocate over to western Canada/easy pacific with +ve heights over central/east canada into western Atlantic,quite strong heights there ridging into southern Greenland day ten 12z ECM mean v's this mornings 0z,you can see the low heights lift out of NE canada with NW trough digging further S/SE the EPS clusters starting to show heights in the Atlantic also.

The ecm at 144... UK... certainly chilly with perhaps some snow grains.

Well i have got to tell you even that it is well out of our reach... i give you the chart of the season by far pert 11

Yes Crew,there is quite a number of gefs ens showing a gfs op/control scenario.

Pert 23 showing the goods again... a ripping nor easter. and pert 11 giving us a pv visit.

Yes Zak let's hope that it is picking up a new signal/trend now i feel this is more feasible.

And the control is about to produce a northerly.

The control run at day ten has a runner low into southern counties/midlands perhaps producing snow on it's northern flank also,look at that Atlantic profile sharpening up,not your typical zonal sh te.

And after that northerly it would be cold and frosty enough keeping any snow that has fallen on the ground assuming this run was to verify,this has more chance of verifying than an easterly in my opinion. OK,the pub run was a good run and there could be a repeat too after that as the high pressure mostly stays out to our west.