East_England_Stormchaser91

Seen the 00z output? could have the potential to be plumetastic! Numerous bouts of instability drifting up from the continent on that run, day in, day out!!

Some beefy showers going over Lincs at the moment. Also in the London area. Not a bad day!

Lack of sufficient insolation I'd say. Noticed the usual places such as east mids and Lincs saw the sferics as usual. Was quite a bit of blue sky and sunshine for sufficient convective aid too up that way. Plenty of opportunity in the foreseeable it looks like though, plus the whole summer yet

2012 was exactly that! Normally each year we get at least one or two doses of plume activity. 2012 still managed to produce those HP supercells under quite a cloudy but humid two day plume, so who knows!!

You too mate! Looking decent around your way at the moment!

This was without doubt way way worse than st Jude! The rain was more the talking point in this end of the woods. Some nasty gusts also witnessed however. A classic 'bomb' situation for sure and will be a highlight of the year for definite. Hope everyone is ok.

Been a while, but 2016 is ready to kick off starting from tomorrow morning, it isn't looking too bad!

Bring it on! Hope this year is as good as the last. Can't believe some of the storms that happened in July last year. Really were quite sublime in many areas. That one that occurred over the North giving that silent lightning display on the evening of the 1st was out of this world by any worldwide standards, let alone here! Not to mention what followed 3 days later. Roll on Spring and summer!

Been hearing all about it! And still the rain carries on falling! Unbelievable.

Very wet day in Peterborough. Been non stop pretty much all day. Envronment agency has issued flood warnings for parts of the river nene and great Ouse.

Very doubtful that there will be no ppn with an ENE of substantial strength and low heights with more than adequate uppers. I'd expect frequent snow showers off the North Sea with potential Thames/Kent streamer setups as they're closer to the lower heights on the latest run. Let's hope it stays the way it is!

All I can say is that GFS has performed like a 'flip flop' all throughout this cold spell! Much like it's old predecessor!

Been snowing steadily here for the past half hour!!

Yeah I've read 'up to' 100 miles away on google. But my own eyes have told me that it is definitely further than that! The Isle of Wight from here is over 150 miles as the crow flies! Maybe because of the flat landscape of the fens, it gives massive unimpeded views around here.

Thought I would start a thread regarding the furthest distance lightning can really be observed from. Ive read a few times this past summer, during the storms of this year in particular including myself of observing and witnessing the flickering of lightning from well in excess of 100 miles away, perhaps nearing or exceeding 150 miles! I myself can certainly say that up here on the lincs/Cambs border have witnessed regular flashes from storms as far away as Wiltshire and Dorset, and more recently as far as the IOW! Someone on another forum claimed that they had witnessed from Suffolk flashes from storms as far away as the Dutch/German border! And flashes over Belgium from Northamptonshire!!! Any takes on this folks?

You may ask yourself how do they do this? You may ask yourself where did that shortwave go to? You may ask yourself is this right or is it wrong, then you may say to yourself my god, what has it done?! Sums up what model watching has been like this past week! Anyway, what I'm now seeing if anything is backtracking from the GFS more towards a UKMO solution! With the heights raising and the Atlantic being pushed ever further back! Good thing is, the cold has began to filter in across northern parts, so we are getting there!

Everyone going on about southwesterlies on the ECM at the end. For a start, especially in the south, that will not be as warm as it suggests. S/SE winds coming in from the cold continent. That Is also a mid latitude block too, with very displaced potent cold below it stretching from turkey to spain! Would not take much for that high to retrogress under the circumstances shown.

GFS is on it's own with this one. All eyes rest on the all important ECM 12z. Got to say I'm liking the latest UKMO and GEM evolution of things. A very cold med and even -8's into mainland Spain with the high over us, giving some very harsh frosts. Any breakdown from the south should give a snowstorm with all that surface cold over the continent. This is why I love model watching!

Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire!

Omg yep saw that from what must be 120 miles away!! Wow :O

So my eyes may not have been kidding me. Very distant flashes observed to the far South from all the way in Huntingdon, Cambs!! Enjoy it before the potential snow!

Once again we are in no mans land! Everything everywhere. The Icelandic and Norwegian shortwaves are the things to be looking out for in real time and the next day or so. It is pretty much predicated on these little blighters in where we go and what happens. If nuking them was an option, I would certainly do so!

More runs needed. Never in my life have I seen such a big clusterf**k of runs. The models are all over the place and there's shortwaves and ridges dotted all over the shop. Awaiting with bated breath for ECM and later GFS runs throughout the day. Interesting stuff nonetheless. But I'd take anything as far as 72-96hrs with a big pinch of salt.

Can't see what all the fuss is about to be quite honest. Look at the reliable timeframe first before fretting over what may or may not happen with the shortwaves and the Azores low. Through experience, Azores lows tend to be the catalyst for the real snowstorms. Winter 09/10, Jan 63 etc. with the Greenland high looking certain now, anything can happen. The main thing is will be the cold certainly heading in our direction. Anything more than 96 hours is subject to huge changes in these types of setups.

Boom! Channel low on the 12z. Midlands up to Cheshire and the Derbyshire peaks would fare best from this though.