East_England_Stormchaser91

I personally think its undercooking. I've seen some brilliant convection in August over the years. August 25th 2012 was a typical UK storm day with a low pressure right over us, and it delivered some cracking storms countrywide, with notable ones in Ely/Littleport, Bristol and Sheffield way. Some really quite memorable storms took place particularly in the Augusts of 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 also.

Amazing how long that very warm water has stayed over the northeastern pacific. The ridge has almost been stuck there for months and months now as a result. Unless that changes and the pattern changes, with an El Niño to boot along with it. I can only see a generally typical mild and wet dominated Atlantic winter. Of course there are many other factors that need to be considered, so this may not be correct. Just a thought.

GFS sticks to its guns and keeps the Scandi High theme right throughout the run. We just need a little more support from the others and for them to come on board, on what potentially looks to be a decent enough August, especially towards the latter part. Something we have not seen for quite some time!

Any webcams for Venice? Storm there is going berserk, 200 odd strikes per minute!

The 18z looks rather plumetastic all the way through!! Reload after reload. We can only hope it's correct.

Estofex and Nick F were certainly bang on the money. The BBC seemed to exaggerate lightning activity further north. But the risk was certainly there, and it is their duty to give a more broader outlook to Joe public, Estofex and forums like this go into the depth much more. I keep telling my family and mates exactly what the case is, but they still try and dispute by saying 'well my iphone says this' nonsense!

Remember what I said WIllliam. Look what Belgium and Holland got yesterday, because of the proximity of land fetch and proper juice in the atmosphere without being watered down by cooler waters. You win some, you lose some. We won on July 3/4th, but had to accept defeat yesterday.

It was a bust, for the simple fact I didn't hear a single rumble. Just like a level 2 from estofex over N France on the 4th July was a bust for them when they didn't hear a single rumble and the SE quarter into Eastern England saw widespread storm activity. A big part of our life is for witnessing good storms and enduring the excitement of them. Partly the reason why we decide to come on here!

Very heavy rain, seemed like it would deliver a good flash and a bang, but no! A bust for how it seems! Unless the end of August can deliver, which it has done in the past, then time is definitely running out for here. Noticed the uppers are getting weaker and the nights are making themselves that bit more present each day..

I'd say thundery rain is quite possible. Hoping that remnant of the MCS over Belgium holds out and gives us a decent lightning show.

The things id do to be in Antwerp right now...!

Hmmm. That lot over Benelux making a turn to the left somewhat? The same thing happened last year on July 19th and clobbered East Anglia..

Reckon that is a bow echo in Belgium now. Incredible stuff.

Overshooting tops on that storm approaching Calais! A defined outflow boundary too as already pointed out by Nick L

Mind boggling lightning strike rates on that lot in NE France now :O

Really fear for Kent should that storm over Amiens strike. If they think this mornings storms were bad, they've probably got another thing coming!

Looks to me like its heading for E Kent and will maybe go into East Anglia. That thing looks lethal though I must say, rapid development on it.

Nick F's latest forecast is bang on the money so far. I take my hat off to the bloke, he is normally very accurate, given how hard it is to forecast thunderstorms. BBC lately have acknowledged this on several occasions too.

Yes! Noticed a recent spike in lightning activity over Kent too. This currently heading towards Essex and Cambridgeshire way as it stands.

Cloud tops must be very high, exceeding 12km perhaps!

All is not lost. A huge area if development going on near Montpellier, which might develop further towards you!

Can only assume the Eastern edge is tapping into the most energy and juice, therefore containing the most convective elements.

Lol. Congratulations bud

Given how slow moving these storms are and the rainfall rates associated, flash flooding will be a big cause for concern in my book for people in the SE especially.

Heres Estofex's verdict on the current situation: A level 1 was issued for England mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent large hail. DISCUSSION North-eastern France into western Alps, central Germany, Benelux, and England A plume of evelvated lapse rates spreads northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Given quite adequate boundary layer moisture and strong diurnal heating, MLCAPE of more than 1000 J/kg is possible. First storms are forecast along the Channel region where warm air advection is strongest, but more storms are expected to form over the western Alps and western/central Germany as well as along the cold front over eastern and northern France. In the evening hours, linear organized storms are expected along the cold front from the western Alps to south-east England. Vertical wind shear remains rather weak, but increases in the evening especially at low levels over the Benelux region and England. Best potential of organized convection is expected over the Benelux countries, where bow echoes may form along the linear squall line of the cold front. Severe wind gusts are forecast with these storms. The threat spreads into western central Germany later on, where pre-frontal storms can merge to the line. Weakening instability will reduce the threat after sunset. Isolated large hail and tornadoes are not ruled out, especially when supercells can form ahead of the squall line. Over England, storms may be elevated due to a colder boundary layer. Excessive precipitation is expected to be the main threat, but isolated large hail cannot be ruled out, especially in eastern England. Further south, clusters of storms are expected over the western Alpine region. 15 to 20 m/s deep layer vertical wind shear will assist well developed multicells and supercells, capable of producing large hail, excessive precipitation, and severe wind gusts. Weakening storms will move into southern Germany during the night, where severe threat will gradually decrease.