East_England_Stormchaser91

Azores low has never been a bad thing. If anything, the low over the Azores obstructs the heights from collapsing back down to their default position. It has always been a common feature in the best historical cold spells.

12z is a stonker I must say. Pretty much all of Europe and UK going into the freezer with brutal cold on stand by to tap into. The extent south of the cold is mind boggling too, with even morocco seeing a potential snow event, especially over the Atlas Mountains!

Looks identical to Feb 1991 charts!! If only it really did happen!

As said yesterday evening, this next 72-96 hours will be very interesting. Note what I said about that low approaching from the SW. Some models are already showing this now as a channel low heading ESE. Note how much closer the cold is too. Watch this space.

Maybe because it didn't! Sorry if you haven't analysed the chart archive..

Still think something is lurking round the corner. Repeatedly we are seeing a tanking -AO being modelled with a possible negative NAO following in suit. It's then we just need the right orientation if the systems to flood the cold down to us. Remember 1947 didn't kick off until the end of January and it evolved in the most unusual way too, with Iberian heights suddenly sucked up over us and then setting up shop over Iceland and Scandi.

One thing that I have seen a few times in the past is for the models to suddenly throw these knife edge lows to the SE into France and overestimate their left turn northwards. The next 96 hours will be interesting. Nothing is nailed down until the last minute in these situations and can often go right down to the wire.

GEM has actually been very good at picking the correct trends this year. Started with this one, and also foresaw the scorching plume we got back in July before any others. Hats off! Hope everyone enjoys their Christmas turkey's

Have to agree with Captain Shortwave here. Eastern Europe is certainly looking like it's going to be slammed into the freezer sooner rather than later. This is the key to get some teeth into the possible beasterly later on!

Just nearly spat out my prosecco looking at the 18z! My word! Think the pub run has had a few too many of them too! This is literally my Xmas present. Anyway, merry Christmas to all, have a good one!

Is that a bit of Eastern promise I see over turkey and the Adriatic on the latest ECM! I hope so. Need a change from this endless Atlantic train.

Cannot take much more of these outputs!! This evening I've seen flies out and around the light as if it was a sticky warm summers evening. Unreal. What is going on!!!

Unprecedented rainfall totals. My heart goes out to the people up there. Do whatever you can to stay safe. Rainfall looks to have pepped up again, not good. EES.

End of the 00z would be on the cusp of something magic. Europe would certainly be heading for some brutal cold if that came off! This current cold snap was spotted quite a way off too albeit slightly watered down nearer the time. We can only hope!

Wow! Didn't think barney would be a house shaker, but jeez, he sure is creating that distinct roar sound and has sent numerous objects flying across the garden. Quite a potent, short sharp depression indeed.

Very windy here now!

Looks to me like a trough/front sliding down the country, very very similar to 30th January 2003 when East Midlands, East Anglia and even as far as Hampshire and west London got blanketed unexpectedly by snow.

That Siberian high is monstrous. One thing to keep an eye on as we go through the runs. Possible retrogression into Greenland from the poleward side!!

Well I never. The 18z has only gone for a classic 'Steve Murr sausage!' What a monster it is too! Stretching from Siberia all the way out into the Atlantic with us on the southern periphery!! Exciting model watching at it's best right now.

Much better amplification on the pub run And wow, before the cold, possible North Sea storm surge. <970mb slap bang in the middle of the North Sea heading down SE..

Mother of runs so far on the latest 18z FI (on a thirsty Thursday trip to the pub perhaps!) Very good WAA and ridging up to Greenland with us and Europe being plunged into the colder air. What I'm seeing differently compared to the last 2 years is the SW/NE alignment of the jet over the US instead of the NW/SE alignment which would help to fuel the Greenland PV and generate the annoyingly strong jet to whip up depressions and steer them right onto us. Instead we are seeing ridging over NF and higher temperatures on the eastern seaboard, creating a less defined and more amplified jet, which on the run shown, successfully shunts up into Greenland. I remember at the start of the horror show of 2013/14 winter (if you could even call it that) reading the comments about the unusually super cold air flooding out of Canada and then creating the most powerful jet ever. This is perhaps looking rather opposite to that, which I can only assume is a good thing for the start of building the blocks to ridge northwards.

Bit irrelevant to the point I've made. Lung cancer and climate are a bit different...More damage is probably being done by methane escapement, volcanic activity and other things such as solar activity I believe plays a big part on the behaviour of the jet stream as does natural La Niña and El Niño events + the behaviour and anomalies of the ocean temps and currents. I don't think there's that much we can really do. We would be only removing an ingredient that plays a very minute part in our global climate system. Still, the mass taxation will continue in the name of something we have no direct control over.

Climate has always been changing since the dawn of time and always will do! Whether we like it or not, we will always see extreme weather in some part of the world at pretty much all times. One place will see record heat, at the same time, somewhere else will see record cold.. And so on.

Very interesting run indeed. Trend has if anything improved. The replacement of the nagging heights over Aleutians and Alaska to raging low pressures seems to cause the GFS to develop a kink in the jet in our favour with raising the heights over E Canada and Labrador and then onto Greenland. That in turn flooding the cold air out of Greenland to the eastern side of it and plunge the UK and Scandi into proper winter weather. It's all about anticipation and the action taking place on the N American continent that has a big effect further down the line. If we do see this happen, and with the already snow covered Eurasian land mass, It could shape up to be an interesting winter season ahead! A pinch of salt taken for now though. I won't hold my breath.

Became very foggy very quickly!! literally clear half hour ago to pea soup. Really do prefer nice quiet foggy days and nights rather than horrid wet and windy conditions.