Ben Sainsbury

Oh don't you start hahaha! I haven't seen him in here in an awful long time now!

Yeah I know I saw this just a minute ago. The owner of the account is definitely playing a risky game!

0z to 3z in order: Storms moving in NW direction to W/WNW direction as night wears on.

AROME & UKV respectively:

AROME, NMM & UKV all supportive of an elevated MCS moving NW across EA & Lincolnshire very early on Sat. AROME/NMM further south than UKV though.

Looks fairly impressive to me for UK standards.

Link?

Just waiting on that shower now to move WSW, pleaseeee!

Some serious MU CAPE moving into Eastern regions.

Yeah it is a particularly challenging situation even for the most experienced over the next 48 hours determining when/where & how heavy the rainfall will be & if any lightning will occur.

One run (when it is an outlier or no agreement within the models). Here we have the GFS, UKMO & GEM all in fairly close agreement at T120 and ICON isn't a million miles away so it's not just because its everyone's favourite weather.

Judging by the model outputs and all background signals that I have seen so far anyway suggest maybe a slightly above average rainfall June at most. And that's assuming the low sits close to the SW of the UK, if we see high pressure push further west like the ICON 12z then we could be looking at quite a settled week or two with sporadic thunderstorms across the far W.

Really isn't dreadful even for far S/SW , GFS precipitation charts will appear a lot worse than what it will actually be. ICON & UKMO both quite promising bar the Day 4-5 of a mixture of frontal rain and thunderstorms across Eastern parts. Temperatures at low-mid twenties, then an increasing improving picture as the week goes on. Bar the GFS of course, but its day 9 charts are useless.

Yes Simon is very well respected within the Meteorology Department here at my university, definitely a worth a follow as he provides some great detailed explanations on a lot model outputs. It's now time for the next set of model outputs

ECM is probably the ideal run if you want a return back to drier warmer weather. 4 or 5 days of cooler, wetter weather at most!

Can't say I agree with you for the most part unfortunately, but there we have it, understand your take on it though. The low pressure system appears to become shallower through the day and since it's not that deep in the first place then the fronts won't be particularly active. Coupled with a warmish flow off the near-continent along with I feel like we could see a few weakly-electrified storms. Can agree however on the 2m temps but then again this is a week away so looking into the details is quite unnecessary.

Not quite as abysmal as it appears since the GFS has a bias on over-egging precipitation due to resolution, also the rain shown will most likely be in the form of showers and/or thunderstorms. So it definitely won't be a washout for the majority of areas but will be a cloudy day regardless.

All in all I must admit was a half decent lightning display. Went to a close little vantage point of mine and saw around 20 flashes including a number of purple cg's so I'm well chuffed. Could begin to make out an anvil too just before I left to come home!

Indeed, just observed a couple of distant flashes here over the far east of Bristol! Glad I didn't chase now

Some more lightning across parts of Cornwall at the moment! NMM showing 100-200J/Kg of MU Cape across Cornwall. Strongest instability further eastwards so will be interesting to see what happens. Seems to be developing quite rapidly actually.

But even that was largely unexpected! Positive for later on today aye fingers crossed!

Don't know what AROME you're looking at?

AROME has now pulled away from any activity whatsoever tomorrow, NMM also producing only one thunderstorm within the next 36 hours. Appears to be nothing more than a marginal to slight risk at the moment.

MU Cape looks to be in and around 300-500J/Kg, some reasonable DLS too of around 10m/s and lapse rates aren't too impressive but nevertheless some sporadic lightning, maybe a touch more frequent in the strongest cells but I wouldn't expect too much. Storms likely to organise into line segments if they do form.

I understand where you are coming from but you have to remember that the GFS and ECM are both low resolution models. AROME is actually on it's own of all the high resolution models with by far the most widespread activity. In comparison (all high-res models but ARPEGE kinda) UKV, EURO4, ICON, ARPEGE & NMM (to some degree) all show little to no activity tomorrow. Even the GFS looks a knife-edge. Despite that I'm a big fan of AROME so you never know. I don't understand this "PPN charts won't be the best indication" either, you're right in saying they aren't particularly useful for the amount of precipitation that reaches the ground but the greatest lightning activity is associated with the strongest radar returns so if there is no heavy precipitation appearing on UKV/EURO4 then that means no lightning activity regardless of whether it's surface based or elevated.