Daniel*

BANK BANK BANK - ECMWF T+120 This thread would explode keeping everything crossed.

T+120 snowfall for large swathes of Southern England?

I just wished to exemplify the GFS 12z run was not snowless, what could be on the table, apparently there's a 30% Prob of widespread snowfall on that particular day into Friday thus it is far from madness. The channel low feature has been shown quite consistently over the last few days just grazing the far S. The mist should disperse early next week regarding snow prospects ect.

Marginal for the S I take it but you're incorrect.

You missed Thursday! No problem with precipitation there. Significant/widespread snowfall up for grabs, which has been mentioned, by Liam D.

There may be quite widespread snowfall on Thursday leading into Friday eventually for Southern England a recurring theme: :

15:15

Interestingly it's the coldest day on ECMWF Brrrr, temperatures not going above freezing for most. Some snow flurries for my region before turning settled locked in cold at surface. Despite uppers moderating somewhat from the W along with pressure build, cold, frosty, dry, sunny, weather seems seems likely into week 2. Not seeing those SW'lies anytime soon. Does turn quite stagnant I'd expect some very cold nights. Well let's see what the upcoming week has in store with snow possible north & south a threat of significant snowfall, that is where my focus is at this moment of time. It is advisable you retreat from your screens, so you do not miss the cold spell altogether.

Hmm, I suppose this is what Nick is talking about T+114, it steers ENE into France on this run significant snowfall out that feature. Appears like those thundery biscay lows we see in the summer there's potential. More runs required indeed. I have never known such volatile output, who said it was going to be dry? :

Helpful to newcomers this archived thread: Model Output Update Times

Certain folk said that he ruined the forum experience for being objective, providing insight which some did not want to hear you can gather what I mean by that westerly driven weather ect, ruffled a few feathers, and general lack of respect. Has caused IF to steer clear. It is a great shame as a minority spoils it for a majority who appreciate Ian's input immensely & we wish for his return. He was/is an extremely valuable asset to the forum.

Cheers Nick for the direction, apologies for my error pity as that occlusion would have gave our region, London/SE a snowfall got me excited. Current T+120 looks quite a lot drier, a interesting day of model watching nonetheless.

Fax charts Day 4 - Day 5 - Battery about to die, looks good to me. IGNORE - not the updated UKMO Fax for tonight

A snow symbol for Thursday first I've seen for the SE during the bulk of December temperature were in excess of 10C of this a cold wintry week beckons. ECM 12z sets up a nice easterly, beats a northerly!

Great news Haha I was just about to the post^^ You folks are too quick there are no definites! as I've highlighted many times. La upgrades are coming you watch...

A seasonal ish start to January with some lengthy sunshine quite wet interspersed. Happy POETS day, good to have a lay in. I suspect we'll see some flakes next week, not expecting anything substantial, well who knows with weather. Parts of central belt experienced a good snowfall with -2C > -3C uppers.

Pretty nippy from 120 to 240, there's somewhere in British Isles with -7C 850s.

No this is not true we do not have cross model agreement up to +120, ignore these models if you want all of which have the capability to bring sustained cold. JMA @120hr UKMO @120hr CMA +120hr GEM eventually gets there +168hr

Wake up folks +96 We may get a link up here

A bit different? v different outcomes... Met Office went largely with their raw data yesterday. In their fax charts - explain that, can't be that lost? I think the UKMO is more on the ball, we'll see. The evening ECM is going to be a critical one, I think we will see upgrades coming.

The UKMO has most definitely not drifted alongside GFS!!

Greenland high on UKMO T+144

+144, A bad trend, quite underwhelming: UKMO +120 a divergence!

That's from 00z Here is the 12z not as good...raw windchill though