Johnp
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Everything posted by Johnp
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So Icon further north with the snow band and GFS further south at 18z. Clear as mud.
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I don’t think anything will come of it on this run, but if we can get these large improvements over the next few runs, we could be back in business again.
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Yes, the PV looks in disarray in comparison to the 00z run
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Icon 12z is massively different on this run over the Arctic. Interesting. Not Pembrokeshire
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I really don’t understand what you’re seeing here, sorry!
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Cool rain, in between the mild rain.
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Who is Mark Vogen?
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I remember writing last Thursday that we probably wouldn’t be clearer on the outcome until Monday (just gone). Here we are on the wednesday night and confused as ever!
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There are some insane ensembles showing at quite short range. This is one of my faves.
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Lovely GEFS mean at 144
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The day 9 breakdown won’t happen like this. This run goes wrong because of this weird, mini dart board low that will no doubt vanish on the next run.
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I think it’s a combination of the 00z runs often seem to be poor(er) combined with bleary-eyed morning grumpiness.
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When was the Glosea Feb chart issued? Hopefully it was today and therefore bang up to date
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Interesting that there’s no complicated shortwaves over Greenland or Iceland.
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Please don’t worry about precipitation. That run would produce snow, regardless of what the model is showing. We’ve seen it many times before.
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Almost straight down the middle
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What I would *really* love to see is high pressure forming over ‘the top’ of the Scandi pv and help to force it all south and then westwards. Sorry if greedy. Would then prolong the spell too.
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This ridge off the esb seems to give us enough buffer to allow another push down from the north.
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I think it’s partly a case of when there’s an on shore drift from the wind, the distance to the M4 is sufficient to mix out any milder air keep it all as snow.
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Give me a sturdy easterly over a flaky Greenland High any day!
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Cold easterly on the way. I’d probably bank this run tbh, which I’d have laughed at 10 minutes ago.
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Snow for the south now. Messy, but ironically a wintry run.
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Isn’t that a south easterly?
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Seems to be a lot of agreement in the GEFS for the Op sadly.
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But, it’s after that where it all goes wrong.
