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Johnp

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Everything posted by Johnp

  1. Johnp
    18z GFS not backing down. What the hell’s going on?
  2. Johnp
    Looks to me like UKMO and GEM have moved towards GFS, more than GFS has moved towards them.
  3. Johnp
    Oh dear - a much flatter 18z run so far up to day 8.
  4. Johnp
    A couple more GEFS (inc the control) going for something interesting for coldies on the 18z, up from 2 on the 12z. Will be interesting if this increases again on the 00z.
  5. Johnp
    Seems to be one other ens member in agreement, so an approx 6% chance at this stage
  6. Johnp
    Oi Oi Saveloy, what’s going on here?
  7. Johnp
    GEFS are much improved too at day 8.
  8. Johnp
    Yes, has that ‘look’ with the isobars opening out and everything looks ‘easier’ and less complicated shortwaves etc.
  9. Johnp
  10. Johnp
    Split of pv at day 8
  11. Johnp
    I think if this 12z GFS run carried on until March, the high pressure over the UK would still be there! At least we’ll dry out.
  12. Johnp
    I think he was talking about the deeper atlantic trough
  13. Johnp
    Come on - it could turn cold within 72hrs of that chart, the high will ridge north westwards imo.
  14. Johnp
    Anyone else think this could evolve in to something similar to the early December slack trough scenario, with features popping up at short notice?
  15. Johnp
    Possibly a stupid question about the clusters. Can someone tell me if these are bunched together by a human, or is all automated?
  16. Johnp
    Despite the uppers, still good to see ECM going for Scandi ridging yet again.
  17. Johnp
    Where are people saying this *will* happen?
  18. Johnp
    This nascent scandinavian high is getting closer to impacting us with every run
  19. Johnp
    Not had a chance to catch up on here but having perused the GEFS, it looks to me as though something may be afoot?
  20. Johnp
    Starting to see quite a few of the ens members looking at a channel runner in a weeks time. Could still turn up a few surprises between Xmas and New year
  21. Johnp
    Maybe he means loco-zonal?
  22. Johnp
    Well I think we’ve discovered the models’ achilles heel. They do not have a scooby how to handle the current setup do they?
  23. Johnp
    Looks like it.
  24. Johnp
    This would be so much more exciting if any of the other models were on board. Fingers crossed for the morning.
  25. Johnp
    Tonight’s ECM will either pull out another mild outlier or Produce a cracker, with Xmas blizzards - and then turn out that the ensembles have flipped and it’s now a cold outlier. Link please to this insightful information.
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