Johnp
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Johnp replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What was so good about Dec 2017? Genuinely can’t remember anything special and even the archive charts look poor. Genuinely interested! -
Where has the model thread gone? It’s been locked and a new one not opened.
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could be - that’s above my pay grade unfortunately -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At midday too -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’d be happy with a few hours of thick cover, preferably at the weekend for a play with the kids. Then all over by lunchtime. Some nice beefy snow showers to keep the interest up would be nice too. I think that’s a reasonable possibility. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes but the point is, it will change again tomorrow. And the day after… -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I remember the days when people wouldn’t give the time of day to the UKMO day 6 chart - and now we’re having kittens over what it shows at day 7. The old adage always applies - get the cold in first and then see what happens. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Chart of the decade that? Absolute perfection (still wish it was a month earlier). -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One of the weirdest charts I’ve ever seen -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Johnp replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Probably because we’re nearly in April by then. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I hope this is a ‘joke’. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wonder what word people in Baltic regions use to describe cold weather? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Have you been reading others posts regarding the SSW? It was only expected that we’d start seeing the colder looking charts develop from today onwards as the reversal is modelled in the starting data. This is exactly what we are now seeing. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I guess this (p15) is what we should be looking for based on the teleconnections? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just about to say that. Day 12ish onwards and things are starting to happen but no consensus on anything yet. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All eyes on the ens for a bit of hope. This member is drastically different as early as day 7 -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You need to watch / google the film Groundhog Day and all will be clear. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
PV certainly in disarray in deep FI -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEM is now looking more ‘GFS-like’ than GFS which is ironic. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What odds would you give on GFS having this right (and has this improved having seen the 18z?) -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Did anyone mention that 18z Icon was pretty dreadful? Still got a sinking feeling about this. It’s GFS. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
See my update. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Johnp replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s weird, I refreshed and now they’re not so good. Think I was looking at a cached version!