Johnp
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Everything posted by Johnp
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At times of uncertainty, forecasters look to climatology. I can say at no point do I recall seeing a chart like this verify - hence I would think there’s low confidence in this run
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It’s actually a deceptively cold run (but boring). Not a single front crosses the country - and after enough time I think a Scandi High would appear.
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Theta-e charts indicate we stay frosty right out beyond 300+ hours.
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Forgive me, but not a fan of this run. Even the snow event goes through the channel! On to the 00z’s! Having said that - looking at the way the three pv centres are rotating, we may get an opportunity for scandi height rises this time.
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Huge differences between GFS / ECM at day 8 mark. Hard to see much longevity coming from this. Where have all the greens and yellows gone to the north west?
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Sorry, can you describe what has ‘escaped out’ please? Thanks.
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I have a feeling it’s going to throw out an absolute stinker.
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Fancy we might get an easterly later this run.
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We’ve been counting down for a week already!
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One thing I noticed on the poorer GFS runs was this shortwave breaking off from the Atlantic low at day 6/7. The poorer runs this then headed east in and interfered with the developing GH. With the better runs it veers north westwards and helps inflate the high. Just one other thing to look out for.
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This looks better than 12z, but really complex goings on over Greenland and the Arctic. This won’t be clear until Monday at the earliest. It’s gonna be a long weekend!
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I miss the old days when the runs would stop at 144hrs. We’d all be heading to bad in a positive mood!
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Out of interest, why would the Pacific high impact the Greenland High? I thought it would help if anything.
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Johnp replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Edit - has now -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Johnp replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Today’s hasn’t updated yet? -
It’s just a case of the block being even bigger.
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It’s still there if you look at the right timescale. ‘Was only ever going to be fleeting
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Please no calling this a bad run. Just variations on a theme as you’d expect.
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It seems you actively try and find problems, rather than just enjoying the ride. It still looks like it will retrogress fwiw.
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Not only is it not sobering, it’s the run of the winter so far.
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Stunning chart and Atlantic absolutely dead.
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This negativity is draining. It’s all good.
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I like the ECM. Someone had to say it. I wish there was an archived forum to relive those days.
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Not a great UKM at 168 at first glance, but look at the look up to the Arctic high in the north east
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When will people learn to see how the run develops before making sweeping statements?
