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Johnp

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Everything posted by Johnp

  1. Johnp
    Looks like a more decisive shift to cold for the Xmas/Boxing Day on the GEFS.
  2. Johnp
    Oh don’t get me wrong, I’m 99% sure this will all be gone by the time the 18z rolls around
  3. Johnp
    By that rationale, Iberian heights would be there forever. They have to go sooner or later, so why not be nudged out of the way by winds coming down from the north? I wouldn’t ask for anything else from Santa if he delivered that over my house this year. Would be magical to spend the day at relatives and then open the door to navigate a winter wonderland on the way home.
  4. Johnp
    Exactly - they can. There’s a lot of myths in model watching ‘lore’.
  5. Johnp
    Snow in to southern england and wales on Xmas evening
  6. Johnp
    But the subsequent charts literally do show the cold coming south over us?
  7. Johnp
    Not a particularly great UKMO run though.
  8. Johnp
    Well the GEFS are certainly enough to keep the dream alive
  9. Johnp
    Have you seen more than day 5?
  10. Johnp
    Not deep enough cold imo.
  11. Johnp
    That’s a nice mean for Xmas Eve
  12. Johnp
    There seems to be an invisible wall along western France blocking that damn low pressure from moving eastwards.
  13. Johnp
    There’s going to be some stonking GEFS runs in FI tonight. This one should evolve to be very nice indeed.
  14. Johnp
    Having had a look through some of these, I’m still not ruling out a white Xmas. It wouldn’t surprise me if an operational run or two threw out some stonkers this weekend.
  15. Johnp
    Starting to look slidey
  16. Johnp
    Yes, a last minute improvement on this run - could still work out for Xmas?
  17. Johnp
    GFS now just doing what GFS does - spinning the low up in to a dartboard, allowing the next one to catch up from the atlantic. It’s now worse than the 12z imo.
  18. Johnp
    GFS still overcooking the low much more than icon at 72hrs(!)
  19. Johnp
    Before anyone gets accused of cherrypicking or hopecasting, GEM has been pretty good recently.
  20. Johnp
    Because the cold air will obviously spread south on the following day.
  21. Johnp
    Well I wasn’t expecting the word Poor to be used about that Icon run when I came on to read the comments.
  22. Johnp
    If offered, I’d take this now for Xmas. Nice and festive but no travel disruption. Then hope the high migrates favourably in the days after to give us a beasterly…
  23. Johnp
    Don’t jump the gun - at 156 it moves away from the phasing. Starting to look really good now. Why is it always the 00z runs that start badly and put us in a bad mood?
  24. Johnp
    Poor chart. I expect a poor winter transpired after that.
  25. Johnp
    An encouraging improvement tonight, let’s hope the ECM delivers the goods too…
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