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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
OK - this is more like it Nick -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This potential cold spell could be of longer duration than the recent one if GFS is to be believed as we retain the cold uppers (and low level cold) throughout. The NH chart below is bursting with cold potential! The run goes on to show mild air pushing in from the SW but I'm not so sure this happen in the current volatile atmosphere ! -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cracking runs this morning across the board ! The ECM Op takes the cold shot further north than the other models but the mean charts score a bullseye! The Op was one of the milder runs in the EPS suite for London for example 06z GFS looking spot on as well.... -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definite downward trend with the 12z GEFS The Op run is at the bottom of the pack but it does have considerable support. So, firming up on cold snap / spell towards 19th & onwards. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hints are there in the METO extended text forecast. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh yeh...? Singularity at the end of next week C'mon Beast pleeeeaasseee don't miss us - pleeeeaaseee ! -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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1847 for you Knocker?
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the Beast has hijacked the 12z ENS mean from next friday onwards! Seriously though, there is a fair spread including plenty of ongoing cold ones.- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nada.. nailed on!- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
LOL - fatigued yes Nick! But always up for another round. Probably around mid May before I give up on the cold and even then a swift northerly blast and unexpected snowfall would be a delight to me.. EDIT: He says as another bout of snow streaks in front of my window on that gorgeous easterly having changed over now from earlirer rain / graupel and the tempdropping back from a brief 0C to -1C.- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well we may be in for a 'less cold' week after the weekend but beyond that the outlook according to the GFS 06z Op run is anything but! Typically we go from this next Friday To this Ending with this The 06z ENS show a lot of spread but even after Mon / Tues next week there are a good few very cold members All in FI of course but little wonder that METO text updates for the extended period are remaining so wintry!- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Look at the latest fax chart showing the front much further south than the earlier one for the same time Latest Earlier Good if you want to prolong the cold!- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, now all we need is a massive dump of snow tomorrow and Friday / Saturday to cover the whole country and keep the surface cold good and entrenched and we could be in for a nice bonus extra 10 days of cold and snow!- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Actually Nick, both ECM & METO toyed with the shortwave idea a few runs back if you recall. Let's hope this theme gets some legs with the other models!- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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