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Everything posted by andy989
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Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
andy989 replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Was it something like Stodge, or similair -
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
andy989 replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Its decending into the old Daily Mail weather forum in there -
Met office would never say significant snowfall this far out. But I agree caution is always a good thing on here to avoid disappointement. I don't think the models will start to firm up (for Xmas day boxing day) until tomorrow/Thursday. More ebbing and flowing to come on the details. Could bring the snow in quicker/earlier. Could bring it in later, could vanish, could upgrade. IF they still show favourable conditions for snow come 48h, then it will still come down to now casting I believe as snow situations always throw suprises.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wasn't referencing any particular poster. Credit to Kasim, he said -8 uppers on east coast and then there they were, it simply took me back to when more posters did these type of calls and got them correct. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This call has brought back a level of nostalgia from days in this thread where some experienced posters who aren't so active anymore would stick their neck out and make calls just before a run would come out. Well done -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The good thing is the cold is extremely close. As in over the uk, which means little differences can put the whole of the uk in the game. But on the other hand, could go the other way. Good model watching none the less. I do however think that "Boom" has lost its meaning. It's thrown about everytime a single run shows cold. I want to see multi day cross model agreement before I Boom -
A lot of posts are going to vanish, including this one, but I'd like to say don't jump onto someone for having an opposing view to yours. God knows this forum needs grounding from time to time. People have the right to be optimistic, people have the right to be pessimistic.
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Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion
andy989 replied to Mapantz's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Any musings on the volcanic erruptions on going? The la Palma one not getting the media coverage it deserves, it's output is very impressive. I probably know the answer to the question " is it spewing enough particles to affect winter". Probably not, but Etna has just errupted too. It's a fact that volcanic eruptions can cool temperatures, 1991 erruptions in the Philippines a recent example. Any (non ramping) thoughts? volcanic winter | Duration, Temperatures, & Facts | Britannica WWW.BRITANNICA.COM Volcanic winter, cooling at Earth’s surface resulting from the deposition of massive amounts of volcanic ash and sulfur aerosols in the stratosphere. Sulfur... -
Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Brilliant storm over north Wales. Got a direct hit from it, constant forks and one within about 100 meters. -
Here's a video I came accross from a campsite somewhere in Devon/Cornwall. Looks like a bloody hurricane Facebook M.FACEBOOK.COM
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Have I really just read a spring is over post??
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Never seen purples so close/touching the UK. Crazy run...BUT, 16 days away -
In this kind of set up it really is a case of the old cliche of get the cold in first. It may very well be dry and cold for Wales initially, but the precipitation will find us. Great eye candy charts with the snow depths but personally I have to wait until they are closer before I get excited. We are always told over on the mad thread not to take notice of precipitation charts when they are far out. Enjoy them for sure, just dont put your life's hopes and dreams on them. Get the cold in, watch it unfold, enjoy the chase.
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
During which it will move to ecm then ECM will drop the cold -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Please don't send us a picture of your few inches -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Great pub crawl tonight, see you in the morning for the inevitable hangover -
Model output discussion - into the last third of January
andy989 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I miss that. The best one of them I can remember is Christmas day.....can't remember the year, early 2000's sometime, first white Christmas, and it was a proper suprise. -
It has moved further North but hasn't taken the action away from the south either. It's just more of Wales is in for some snow. It will be down to radar watching to see if we get very lucky and it stalls/pivots over Wales but it's modelled to clear Wales pretty quick. Enjoy folks, will post pics if I get decent action