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Everything posted by andy989
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Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
andy989 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s an upcoming spell of cold and snowy weather? But yes, personally I’m not getting excited until an actual spell of cold and snowy weather is at least T48 hrs. As nice as it is to have an upbeat forum. At the moment we are only at a stage of needing to get global drivers in place to maybe make conditions conducive for cold for the UK, certainly not at a stage to say there is an upcoming spell of cold and snowy weather. -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
andy989 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I find these tweets you post really interesting. The Lapland inversion you posted earlier is crazy, I’m going to Levi in northern Lapland in January. Thanks for sharing -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
andy989 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nothing worse than logging on and getting excited to see this thread trending as “hot”, thinking “there must be cold prospects if so many are posting”, only to see a load of emotionally charged posts, many of which seem to write off the next month or indeed the whole of winter….in November. 2010 was a freak event folks. As Lovely it would be to see it again, you’ve got to reset your expectations and go into winter thinking “January February are the months for the UK”. You’ll save yourselves a lot of stress and disappointment. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
andy989 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I’ve been outside in my t-shirt today doing some work on my van. Had a complete shock to see snow on the tops of the mountains. Must be a big difference just 1000ft above -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
andy989 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not model related, but seeing as there are many posts about the continuing mild, I had a shock when I saw a dusting of snow on the tops here in Snowdonia this morning! I was working on my van in my T-shirt. Must be a hell of a difference just a 1000ft above -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This is an insane storm. check this strike i caught, you can see the blue spark to the right of frame where the power surges then all the street lights go off IMG_6619.MOV -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This is going to be intense. I’m at a vantage point about 1000ft looking over the Irish see. It’s constant flashes for the full 180 degree vision. Very impressive -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Wind direction seems to be more in favour for us today. Hopefully the heavy showers in the south ATM will develop as they travel up -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
IMBY, I’ve been in good warning zones throughout all this thundery period but have missed out. Still not a single rumble this year. I’m in the 50% zone today, highest yet. Fingers crossed -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Could be interesting in for us in west Wales tonight. Strong winds this morning took the gazebo down the lane and a few hefty oak branches are down. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Been pretty warm here today with the sun out and the sky has been bubbling up nicely with convective clouds. Big spots of rain now. Nothing was forecast -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
andy989 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Tamra’s description of the dry windy heat was spot on
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I’m away from home working in the Staffordshire area. Feeling very hot, fair bit of convective looking bubbles building.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
andy989 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I suspect it won’t be the quicker option given the meto has just done a red warning? -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
andy989 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Does this mean quicker push away of heat or slower? -
40 isnt nailed on here though, it will only reach 40 if the heat holds just long enough on tuesday before its pushed away. Monday wont be anything we havent expirienced before (according to the models so far)
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I work in the TV and Film industry and meant to be out filming with 40+crew members from sunday onwards right in the middle of the warning area. Only red warnings and news coverage stops filming. Time will tell. I do wonder if the only thing holding back a red warning is the duration. I dont think 2 days of extreme heat will cause chaos? The previous record of 38.7 Celsius didnt cause chaos did it? (Genuine question)
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
andy989 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No rain was forecasted here but it’s been raining since 10:am. High cloud, convective rain. In fact the met office still says it’s not raining. Very warm