andy989

I’ve never seen it in the uk but I’ve seen it many a time in the Arctic. I remember one time too it was -35 and my exhaled breath would climb into the air and you could see it turn into diamond dust

Yep, many 2010’s were muttered, even a few 1963’s.

2.8c here, heavy rain, little bit of wet flakes. I must be just over to the mild side

I usually do very well being 1000ft ASL and next door to Yr Wyddfa, but not this time. Rain on and off all day with a little bit of wet flakes. Maybe night time cooling will aid later. I never did think this spell was THE spell anyway. Currently heavy snow in Blaenau Ffestiniog though with parts of the A470 closed too. They are further inland there though. Holding out a little hope for tonight, but onto the next chase for me otherwise. Enjoy the snow those who are getting it.

Must be my proximity to the Atlantic.

Is the cold air being mixed out already? I was forecast heavy snow 11-1pm. Multiple “live” weather outlets are saying heavy snow right now. But it’s raining, even at my elevation

These upgrades at night and downgrades in the morning are the models trying to get a grip during an unusual set up. It sniffs out what could be a cold set up then by morning reverts to what it’s used to, and back again. This oscillation will continue until closer to the outcome (whatever it may be). They don’t know what the outcome is at the moment so it’s like a child trying to decide what sweet to get at a shop. Does the child risk a new sweet, or stick with what they know, they can’t yet decide. The fact that they are still doing it bodes well in my eyes. The potential is clearly there. We just have to endure this up and down for a while longer (and potentially be disappointed, or not). But that’s why the to and fro between the night runs and morning runs.

I’m going to keep my head screwed on for a good few days yet. I might allow myself to get just a little bit excited if all this is still showing tomorrow morning (we know the morning runs often kill the dream)

I’m prime spot for that. We’ll see

Storm Ciaran set the new lowest pressure record for England and Wales at 953.3mb at sea level. That chart shows 938mb at 500hpa. I wonder what that would be at sea level

Hopefully the “next window of opportunity” will also be aided by the Canadian warming.

Thankyou. I was thinking November to January is a very long lag time for any effects. I was born in 89 so i didn’t really experience 93, but I’ve read about it and 81. I’ll be following the warming closely, I suspect models won’t take it into account until it’s happened?

Am I right in thinking that the Canadian warming in November 1962 was NOT responsible for the legendary winter jan/feb/march 1963. But rather a full SSW in January 1963 was responsible?

I don’t think models will catch on to the effects of the warming until it’s happened AND after any lag effect. IF the warming does have any favourable cold influence for us the models won’t pick them up until much closer to the time. For anyone not aware of the warming it would appear as if the models have suddenly flipped cold, but in fact they will be picking up the effects of the warming. I think anyway, but who really knows.

Temperature has dropped like a stone here and there’s the odd flake falling. I think the summits around here will be white if we get overnight showers

I’ll happily sacrifice battleground snow this time for the low to go further south and dragging the colder air further down.

I advise the less seasoned visitors in this thread to avoid reading the 6:am panic posts. They tend to be panics from a single frame. You’ll notice the more notable posters wait until later in the morning to comment when they have a fuller view of the models, rather than single frames. Before I get jumped on, yes discussing single frames is fine as this is the model thread after all. But jumping to wild conclusions after a frame, only to jump wildly the other way on the next run (from the same posters) can be very disorienting to anyone trying to learn

Well the cold has arrived giving us our first hard frost tonight.

Let us know when he does

Amazing Thankyou!

Never say surely! We’ve lost it all before! Enjoy the ride but don’t let go of the handle bars

I know people bash the UKMO for being late to parties, but having it on board, late or not, is important. And as for their extended outlook, they always take the safer route. Mentions of cold in their write ups only happen when they are very certain of it. It’s always been like this.

For you perhaps. I did very well, best December since 2010 for me.

I agree. As always, cross model agreement and having that agreement counting down through the days is crucial. Don’t get me wrong, this could be the start of that, with the ecm having a big swing to gfs today, others might follow. But personally I’m waiting. Great to have this forum buzzing again though.