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Everything posted by draztik
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Usual suspects look for heatwaves, ruining the mod thread with constant idiocy! Yet in winter, same folk crying that plummeting temps are killing people....its quite surreal to witness the madness/hypocrisy. -
ECM Ensembles, along with the ECM Op , continuing to show temps below average into mid term (days 5-10)... and theme continues into days 10 - 15. Tho will need to have a look at the clusters later for scope. Spring on hold!* [GFS 7 day mean, temp anom, echoes the ECM] *if you're after heat, that is.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All very normal! It would seem this recent hot spell has spoilt a lot of folk, who are now seeking continental flows.. looking for corrections, chasing unicorns. Silly season has started early. -
the MetOffice really sticking their neck out there with this one...
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Indeed. A return to form, for the forseeable. Deck chairs and shorts, packed away! The EPS shows the temp anomaly turning negative as we progress; In addition, and interestingly, the EPS 46 dayer projecting a cooler than average May, UK-wide!
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
people over in the MOD thread wishing for more snow and more cold.... given the ECM's 'upgrade' this evening. The most selfish, indulgent folk you're ever going to meet are in there going bananas. All while folk are being killed, and cant go to work in these conditions. Aye, we'll cover the bill, while 'folk in France' sit idly by posting on a forum. Shocking! -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Reading the mod thread at the moment, brb. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s quite apparent it going to turn much colder than what we have right now ... but these charts are not within the realiable yet we have folk behaving as though ice rainbows and apocalyptic snow drifts will descend on the UK! good to see you posting, I can always rely on you to keep it real. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yea, I actually can no longer read that thread, as realism has given into mass hysteria on an epic scale. I’m not a doctor, but there’s something wrong with them. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Day 16 charts being posted over in MOD thread, from individual members of the GEFS; desperate times. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is there no russian high knocking about.... wasnt that going to be the saviour of this event we call winter.... oh wait. oh well, onto the next chase. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And over in the mod thread this morning .... with reference to mid Dec onwards ..... -
The fact there is heavy snow in Newtownards currently, tells me everything... quite the snow event developing in the province for sure.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Rinse & repeat kind of day - with the 11PM update turning from to --- Unlike the models, at least with the vodka, my ups and downs are based on real events (it's always jam tomorrow with the mods, be it in summer or winter) -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
this is how today has gone. 9am - WINTER. OVER. KAPUT. 12pm - Hmm... 5pm - OH. 7pm - OMG, 'come on ECM, get with it'. 11PM - *** tomorrow, expect the same, though not necessarily in that order. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
draztik replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think we need this type of humour on a morning like this. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Indeed! If the model isnt showing what you want, discard! Tips for winter, folks.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hallilujiah! -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could be argued that we do! Doesn’t stop the MOD thread from going into meltdown and fully expecting whiteouts, blizzards and paralysing snowfalls though. Snow is quickly replaced with disappointment and then the chase recommenses. Carrots and sticks aplenty. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The winter you speak of, was such a rare event - when everything went right, depending on how you view it. I do hope you are right, but I am so utterly convinced to the contrary, that its hard to ignore what I see as the glaringly obvious - the much fabled cold start to November has come and gone... the models led and the folk followed. There are only so many fingers I am willing to be bitten this year. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Excuse me, but havent you seen the latest musings in the MOD thread? A strong siberian high is due to take hold, and this is a key ingredient to a colder Europe. GFS day 16 charts should strongly be viewed favorably. Please disregard the Met Office's glosea, CFS ensembles and all other output favouring milder conditions... the Siberian High is being heralded as our saviour, so its cold all the way* -
hot?! mild, sure. very mild, I suppose. Hot? no.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fear not. There is Surely potential