KTtom

Someone posted in the other thread where a town recorded 56 days without rainfall last year. I can see that being beaten. My location is nearing 20 odd days now, the last 10 have been unbroken sunshine bar Tuesday. The ECM day 10 chart is amazingly similar to that of today, no sign of anywhere seeing rain for the foreseeable.

Nothing likely next 10 days. This has to be one of the most stagnant patterns I have known, usually the high tends to wonder around changing the variables around, however the overnight gfs day 10 chart looks almost identical to todays, and that of 10 days ago. My 10 day app forecast is another 10 days without a cloud in the sky. Not looking good for a change in the east either with a persistant easterly breeze. Met stubbornly sticking with a breakdown in the south mid month but not showing up in the models as yet.

My favorite month of the year is June. Traditionally the best month of the year for settled, warm weather over on the western side. Being a coastal location the easterly breeze we have had these last couple of weeks has seen wall to wall sunshine with no sign of the pesky sea mist. Oh, and as its still school time you can get out and enjoy the weather without the crowds...happy to work throughout August! Noticeable im up in the mornings at 5am, yet 6.30 is a struggle in winter.

Guessing the Med will be happy to see the demise of the UK high

Thats the frustrating thing about our weather these last few years, we get into a pattern that sticks for weeks, no variety, hence we go from floods to drought

Unfortunately that is the curse of the winter board, the 'likes' brigade. Im sure some are in competition.

What are the Seasonals showing now then? Has there been a big change? It was only a few weeks ago you posted a clean sweep with all models showing a high pressure dominated Summer?

Depending on location obviously...the warmest week of the year by some distance on the cards for the west... 16 degrees for the west coast

Gfs seems to be on its own somewhat with pulling the high out west and a return to colder and unsettled conditions next weekend. UKMO and ECM have the core of the high staying east and warmer air (uppers) being drawn up later in the week as the easterly dies....we know which way this would go in winter..

Further south again this morning...just the far south west currently at risk of severe gales but a wash out elswhere....

Next weeks low modelled further and further south...here is ukmo 120

UKMO now picking up on the 'storm' for later next week gfs has been showing for a few days now. The track now crucial but a real threat of widespread severe gales.

Gfs also has that very deep low for the 12th...

Agree...some of the more youthful locals parade around in shorts and flip flops in January! Now that is mad!

Amazing what the sun can do this time of year, the beer garden was t-shirt weather this afternoon despite temps of only 11 degrees. Sun went behind clouds at 4 and it was deserted by 4.30...the main takes on today, a massive influx of tourists and the world grass cutting championships seem to be taaking place here!

Unfortunately its the usual case with the met warnings, dammed if you do, dammed if you dont. Some just dont get the matrix regarding to likelihood and disruption, if they see a 'yellow' then the perception is it must happen and the met are useless if it doesn't.

Less of an easterly influence on tights ecm, more of an Atlatic flow, nothing dramatic but a swing around between who gets the more sunshine between western and eastern areas with the latter fairing much better than was looking likely yesterday.

Well, gfs has high pressure taking hold from 1st April and still has it sat over us on the 14th (last chart), so who knows....it does seem increasingly difficult to shift an area of high pressure when it gets hold of NW Europe

One thing im noticing this last 12 months or so, is that when we get into a pattern it sticks for weeks on end, whether its unsettled and wet or dry and settled, with the latter looking odds on to establish itself in the run up to Easter, i do wonder how long itll be before were moaning about a lack of rain again...obviously there is a caveat to this, very cold spells still last 48 hours!

4 gfs runs in a row now have high pressure in charge for Easter Weekend..one to keep an eye on.

Looks like those who like colder and sunny as opposed to milder and wet will be happy next week

There is a northerly forecast for later this weekend, but this time of year, even that will struggle to lower temperatures to single digits in the south. Its a bit of a trade off this time of year, south westerlies and its damp and cloudy, northerly and its cool but with plenty of sunshine.

Alot of people repeating themselves today! Also seen a fluffy bumble bee playing golf yesterday

This should help the areas in the south west still in drought...mild southwesterlies to dominate, at least through next week. As Tidal Wave mentions above, not what we were led to believe was going to be the likely outcome post SSW.

Looking through the models this morning, plenty of wet weather into next week which will benefit some, especially the south west which, according to an article on the News last night is still officially in drought. The other noticeable feature as we head into the second half if the dominance of south westerlies, no sign of a return to anything cold. I guess its very much where you live as to how favourable the SSW was to you, but for most, a few frosty days and some wet snow would sum it up, not quite what most were forecasting / hoping for.